A pending ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court regarding the 1965 Voting Rights Act could trigger the Florida Legislature to conduct a mid-decade congressional redistricting effort, but it won’t require them to do so.

That was the opinion of Tallahassee election attorney Andy Bardos, who spoke Wednesday before a Florida House select committee charged with considering congressional redistricting, the second “educational and informative meeting” in the past week that did not allow public comment.

Denying that redistricting would have anything to do with partisan advantage, Gov. Ron DeSantis has maintained that Florida will be “forced to” redistrict once the high court rules in a case called Louisiana v. Callais, which could redefine Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act or declare it unconstitutional. The Justices have twice heard the case and are expected to rule sometime before next July.

“In terms of binding effect, it has binding effect on Louisiana,” Bardos told lawmakers. “Whether Florida chooses after Callais to keep its maps in place, await either the next cycle, or await litigation, or redraw its districts, that will be a judgment call made when we see the Callais decision.”

Bardos and committee Chair Mike Redondo, a Miami Republican, confirmed during the hearing that if the Legislature does in fact redo the congressional map sometime next year, it would do so based on U.S. census and voter information data they used previously when it did the decennial redistricting in 2022.

Court rulings

What has changed since then is the Florida Supreme Court’s ruling in July upholding the state’s 2022 congressional map, which had been legally challenged by voting rights groups such as Black Voters Matter after it was approved by the Legislature.

Those groups argued the map had violated the 2010 Fair Districts amendments when it redrew Florida’s 5th Congressional District. That seat stretched for more than 200 miles along the Florida-Georgia border to encompass Black populations in Florida’s old plantation belt from Gadsden to Duval counties.

One of those protections in the Fair Districts amendments prohibits lawmakers from drawing districts that “diminish (racial and language minorities’) ability to elect representatives of their choice.” The plaintiffs had argued that eliminating a district in which Black voters were electing their preferred candidate violated that provision.

The Florida Supreme Court ruled that the old District 5 seat was likely an illegal race-based gerrymander that failed to meet the equal-protection standards under the U.S. Constitution. “In the process of deciding that, the court articulated legal principles that had never before been set forth by a court in that way,” Bardos said.

The Fair District amendments also state that “no apportionment plan or individual district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent,” which seemingly would contradict the stated goal of President Donald Trump, who said explicitly in July that he wanted Texas to create more House seats favorable to his party for the 2026 Midterm Elections. DeSantis said publicly weeks later that he thought Florida should do so, as well.

Bardos went on to tell Rep. Kevin Chambliss, a Homestead Democrat, that the Florida Supreme Court ruling that the 2022 congressional map was constitutional “raises questions now about how does this articulation of additional principles effect other parts of the state which the court wasn’t focused on.”

This was the last meeting scheduled by the select committee until the 2026 Legislative Session begins on Jan. 13. However, both DeSantis and Senate President Ben Albritton have said they would prefer the Legislature wait to address the issue again in a Special Session after the U.S. Supreme Court weighs in on the Louisiana v. Callais case — which, as Bardos said Wednesday, might not be for another six months.

No public comment allowed

Opponents of the proposed redistricting expressed outrage that the public wasn’t given time to speak during the hearing.

“The people of Florida deserve better than a rush job behind closed doors,” said Jessica Lowe-Minor, President of the League of Women Voters of Florida. “There’s no compelling reason to do redistricting at all right now, and it certainly shouldn’t be done when the public doesn’t have sufficient opportunities to engage and provide input.”

“When lawmakers show up in Tallahassee, they should be fighting for the hardworking people who sent them there,” added Amina Spahić, political director with Florida For All. “But, instead, we see them catering to the powerful interests and mega-donors who bankroll their campaigns.”

Noting that some of his constituents drove up from South Florida before learning that they would not be able to speak during Wednesday’s hearing, Chambliss asked Redondo if he could provide notice earlier if he planned to disallow public comment during future committee meetings.

Redondo responded that both hearings held so far involved only presentations, which he said typically do not allow for public comment. “When there’s some sort of legislative action being considered, that’s typically when we see public comment in normal meetings. But we’ll certainly try to notice the meetings as reasonably early as possible,” he said.

Republicans hold a 20-8 lead over Democrats in the state’s congressional delegation. Republican National Committee Chair and Sarasota Sen. Joe Gruters reposted an analysis of the situation around the country on Tuesday.

That analysis predicts that Florida Republicans would gain five seats if and when they go through with redistricting and voters follow through as the GOP expects them to in November 2026.

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Reporting by Mitch Perry. Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Florida Phoenix maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Michael Moline for questions: [email protected].