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Is there a crypto bubble? Yes, says CEO of $15 billion exchange Kraken

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If there’s one constant in crypto, it’s volatility. Since Bitcoin first emerged in 2009, there have been euphoric upswings and catastrophic declines. Crypto bubbles lead to crypto collapses.

Arjun Sethi, the co-CEO of Kraken, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges last reportedly valued at $15 billion, believes we’re now in the midst of a bubble. When Fortune’s Jeff John Roberts asked the crypto executive whether that was the case during a panel at the Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference in Park City, Utah, Sethi responded yes—with some nuance.

“Are we in a bubble or not? If I look at the overall slope over 15 years, I would say no,” said the Kraken executive. “If you look at it quarter by quarter, the answer is yes, we get into those bubbles all the time.”

That even a crypto CEO would say that his industry is headed for a potential crash speaks to the frothiness in the crypto markets over the past year. Since January, Bitcoin has repeatedly notched all-time highs and the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies has crossed the $4 trillion for the first time. That’s not to mention blockbuster IPOs from the stablecoin issuer Circle and the crypto exchange Bullish.

While some of that enthusiasm stems from Bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market—the S&P 500 has also set new records since President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January—pro-crypto regulatory changes in the U.S. are also a likely factor for crypto’s recent surge.

But all bubbles eventually pop, and there are already signs of a potential burst, including declining enthusiasm in crypto’s newest trend: digital asset treasuries, or public companies that amass crypto on their balance sheets to boost their share prices.

Proponents say these companies let investors gain exposure to cryptocurrencies not readily accessible within their brokerage accounts, but detractors say these firms are a quick cash grab and will eventually collapse. There may already be signs of that collapse. Last week, the average drop in stock price of 15 digital asset treasuries tracked by Architect Partners, a crypto M&A advisory and financing firm, was 15%.

Still, on the same panel with Kraken co-CEO Sethi, billionaire Barry Silbert, founder of the crypto company Digital Currency Group, was optimistic. “There’s a whole lot of crap in crypto right now, which is overvalued. I think 99% of crypto is absolutely going to zero,” he said. “But that asset class, the crypto asset class, is absolutely not in a bubble right now.”

And if Bitcoin’s history of big drops and even bigger rebounds is any indication, Silbert may be right.

Klarna… Yesterday, Klarna went public in a long-awaited IPO, where the stock popped as much as 25%. In the lead-up to listing day, Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski sat down with the Term Sheet Podcast to talk about preparing to go public, why he loves Walmart, and the future of financial services. Catch the whole episode here.

Ben Weiss
X: @bdanweiss
Email: benjamin.weiss@fortune.com

Submit a deal for the Term Sheet newsletter here.

Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter. Subscribe here.

VENTURE DEALS

– Higgsfield.ai, a San Francisco-based AI-powered video reasoning engine, raised $50 million in Series A funding. GFT Ventures led the round and was joined by BroadLight Capital, NextEquity Partners, AI Capital Partners, Menlo Ventures, Alpha Square Group, and others.

– Koi, a Washington, D.C.-based software security platform, raised $48 million in seed funding and $38 million in Series A funding from Battery Ventures, Team8, Picture Capital, NFX, and Cerca Partners.

– Pest Share, a Nampa, Idaho-based on-demand pest control platform, raised $28 million in Series A funding. Integrity Growth Capital led the round and was joined by existing investors MetaProp, Capital Eleven, and others.

– Optain Health, an Akron, Ohio-based company using AI and robotics to improve eye disease detection, raised $26 million in Series A funding. Insight Partners led the round and was joined by others. 

– Ridge Bio, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based AI-driven enzyme and drug design platform, raised $25 million in seed funding. Sutter Hill Ventures led the round and was joined by Overlap Holdings.

– TERN Group, a London, U.K.-based clinical AI workforce platform, raised $24 million in Series A funding. Notion Capital led the round and was joined by RTP Global, LocalGlobe, PreSight Capital, and others.

– Clockwork, a San Francisco-based AI compute company, raised $20.6 million in funding. New Enterprise Associates led the round and was joined by AMD, Broadcom, and others.

– Born, a Berlin, Germany-based developer of AI apps designed to serve as friends, raised $15 million in Series A funding from Accel and Tangent.

– Standard Fleet, a San Francisco-based fleet management platform, raised $13 million in Series A funding. Nova Threshold led the round and was joined by WEX Venture Capital and others.

– Speedchain, an Atlanta, Ga.-based expense manager and card issuer, raised $11 million in Series A funding from GTM Fund, Village Global, TTV Capital, K5 Global, Tandem, and Emigrant Bank.

– Hush Security, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based machine access security company, raised $11 million in seed funding. Battery Ventures and YL Ventures led the round.

– Kamino, a São Paolo, Brazil-based financial operating system, raised $10 million in Series A funding. Flourish Ventures and Quona Capital led the round.

– Accordance, a San Francisco-based AI-powered platform designed for accounting and tax firms, raised $10 million in seed funding and $3 million in pre-seed funding. Khosla Ventures led the seed round, General Catalyst led the pre-seed round, and were joined by Anthropic, NEA, Bain Capital Ventures, and Sequoia Capital.  

– Klaar, a San Francisco-based AI-powered performance management platform, raised $5 million in Series A funding. Prime Venture Partners led the round.

– LocusX, a Montreal, Canada-based AI-powered resolution engine for video games, raised $3 million CAD ($2.2 million USD) in seed funding. Diagram and Triptyq led the round. 

PRIVATE EQUITY

– EC-Council, backed by EQT Private Equity, invested $20 million in FireCompass, a Wilmington, Del.- and Bangalore, India-based AI-powered security platform.

– Hudson Glade acquired ComNet Communications, a Bethel, Conn.-based provider of low voltage infrastructure solutions. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– Incubeta, backed by Carlyle, acquired RocketSource, a South Jordan, Utah-based AI-powered consultancy. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– SPATCO, backed by Kian Capital, acquired Excell Fueling Systems, a Buda, Texas-based fuel system contractor. Financial terms were not disclosed.

EXITS

– DHL Supply Chain agreed to acquire Strategic Delivery Solutions, a Tampa, Fla.-based health care delivery company, from HCI Equity Partners. Financial terms were not disclosed,

– GTCR acquired FMG Suite, a San Diego, Calif.-based provider of marketing automation software to financial advisors and insurance agents, from Aurora Capital Partners. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– Samsung Life Insurance agreed to acquire a minority stake in Hayfin Capital Management, a London, U.K.-based alternative asset management platform, from Arctos Partners. Financial terms were not disclosed.

FUNDS + FUNDS OF FUNDS

– Venture Investors Health Fund, a Madison. Wis.-based venture capital fund, raised $80 million for its second fund focused on early-stage medical device, diagnostics, digital health, and pharmaceutical companies.

PEOPLE

– Norwest, a Menlo Park, Calif.-based venture capital and growth equity firm, promoted David Glaser and Angela Johnson to vice presidents. 



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Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi says company will be worth $1 trillion by doing these three things

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December 9, 2025

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Ali Ghodsi, the CEO and cofounder of data intelligence company Databricks, is betting his privately held startup can be the latest addition to the trillion-dollar valuation club.

In August, Ghodsi told the Wall Street Journalthat he believed Databricks, which is reportedly in talks toraise funding at a $134 billion valuation, had “a shot to be a trillion-dollar company.” At Fortune’s Brainstorm AI conference in San Francisco on Tuesday, he explained how it would happen, laying out a “trifecta” of growth areas to ignite the company’s next leg of growth.

The first is entering the transactional database market, the traditional territory of large enterprise players like Oracle, which Ghodsi said has remained largely “the same for 40 years.” Earlier this year, Databricks launched a link-based offering called Lakehouse, which aims to combine the capabilities of traditional databases with modern data lake storage, in an attempt to capture some of this market.

The company is also seeing growth driven by the rise of AI-powered coding. “Over 80% of the databases that are being launched on Databricks are not being launched by humans, but by AI agents,” Ghodsi said. As developers use AI tools for “vibe coding”—rapidly building software with natural language commands—those applications automatically need databases, and Ghodsi they’re defaulting to Databricks’ platform.

“That’s just a huge growth factor for us. I think if we just did that, we could maybe get all the way to a trillion,” he said.

The second growth area is Agentbricks, Databricks’ platform for building AI agents that work with proprietary enterprise data.

“It’s a commodity now to have AI that has general knowledge,” Ghodsi said, but “it’s very elusive to get AI that really works and understands that proprietary data that’s inside enterprise.” He pointed to the Royal Bank of Canada, which built AI agents for equity research analysts, as an example. Ghodsi said these agents were able to automatically gather earnings calls and company information to assemble research reports, reducing “many days’ worth of work down to minutes.”

And finally, the third piece to Ghodsi’s puzzle involves building applications on top of this infrastructure, with developers using AI tools to quickly build applications that run on Lakehouse and which are then powered by AI agents. “To get the trifecta is also to have apps on top of this. Now you have apps that are vibe coded with the database, Lakehouse, and with agents,” Ghodsi said. “Those are three new vectors for us.”

Ghodsi did not provide a timeframe for attaining the trillion-dollar goal. Currently, only a handful of companies have achieved the milestone, all of them as publicly traded companies. In the tech industry, only big tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta have managed to cross the trillion-dollar threshold.

To reach this level would require Databricks, which is widely expected to go public sometime in early 2026, to grow its valuation roughly sevenfold from its current reported level. Part of this journey will likely also include the expected IPO, Ghodsi said.

“There are huge advantages and pros and cons. That’s why we’re not super religious about it,” Ghodsi said when asked about a potential IPO. “We will go public at some point. But to us, it’s not a really big deal.”

Could the company IPO next year? Maybe, replied Ghodsi.



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New contract shows Palantir working on tech platform for another federal agency that works with ICE

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December 9, 2025

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Palantir, the artificial intelligence and data analytics company, has quietly started working on a tech platform for a federal immigration agency that has referred dozens of individuals to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement for potential enforcement since September.

The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services agency—which handles services including citizenship applications, family immigration, adoptions, and work permits for non-citizens—started the contract with Palantir at the end of October, and is paying the data analytics company to implement “Phase 0” of a “vetting of wedding-based schemes,” or “VOWS” platform, according to the federal contract, which was posted to the U.S. government website and reviewed by Fortune.

The contract is small—less than $100,000—and details of what exactly the new platform entails are thin. The contract itself offers few details, apart from the general description of the platform (“vetting of wedding-based schemes”) and an estimate that the completion of the contract would be Dec. 9.Palantir declined to comment on the contract or nature of the work, and USCIS did not respond to requests for comment for this story.

But the contract is notable, nonetheless, as it marks the beginning of a new relationship between USCIS and Palantir, which has had longstanding contracts with ICE, another agency of the Department of Homeland Security, since at least 2011. The description of the contract suggests that the “VOWS” platform may very well be focused on marriage fraud and related to USCIS’ recent stated effort to drill down on duplicity in applications for marriage and family-based petitions, employment authorizations, and parole-related requests.

USCIS has been outspoken about its recent collaboration with ICE. Over nine days in September, USCIS announced that it worked with ICE and the Federal Bureau of Investigation to conduct what it called “Operation Twin Shield” in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, where immigration officials investigated potential cases of fraud in immigration benefit applications the agency had received. The agency reported that its officers referred 42 cases to ICE over the period. In a statement published to the USCIS website shortly after the operation, USCIS director Joseph Edlow said his agency was “declaring an all-out war on immigration fraud” and that it would “relentlessly pursue everyone involved in undermining the integrity of our immigration system and laws.” 

“Under President Trump, we will leave no stone unturned,” he said.

Earlier this year, USCIS rolled out updates to its policy requirements for marriage-based green cards, which have included more details of relationship evidence and stricter interview requirements.

While Palantir has always been a controversial company—and one that tends to lean into that reputation no less—the new contract with USCIS is likely to lead to more public scrutiny. Backlash over Palantir’s contracts with ICE have intensified this year amid the Trump Administration’s crackdown on immigration and aggressive tactics used by ICE to detain immigrants that have gone viral on social media. Not to mention, Palantir inked a $30 million contract with ICE earlier this year to pilot a system that will track individuals who have elected to self-deport and help ICE with targeting and enforcement prioritization. There has been pushback from current and former employees of the company alike over contracts the company has with ICE and Israel.

In a recent interview at the New York Times DealBook Summit, Karp was asked on stage about Palantir’s work with ICE and later what Karp thought, from a moral standpoint, about families getting separated by ICE. “Of course I don’t like that, right? No one likes that. No American. This is the fairest, least bigoted, most open-minded culture in the world,” Karp said. But he said he cared about two issues politically: immigration and “re-establishing the deterrent capacity of America without being a colonialist neocon view. On those two issues, this president has performed.”



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CoreWeave CEO: Despite see-sawing stock, IPO was ‘incredibly successful’ amid challenges of tariff timing

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December 9, 2025

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CoreWeave has been rocked by dizzying stock swings—with its stock currently trading 52% below its post-IPO high—and a frequent target of market commentators, but CEO Michael Intrator says the company’s move to the public markets has been “incredibly successful. And he takes the public’s mixed reaction in stride, given the novelty of CoreWeave’s “neocloud” business which competes with established cloud providers like Amazon AWS and Google Cloud.

“When you introduce new models, introduce a new way of doing business, disrupt what has been a static environment, it’s going to take some people some time,” Intrator said Tuesday at Fortune’s Brainstorm AI conference in San Francisco. But, he added, more people are beginning to understand the CoreWeave’s business model.

“We came out into one of the most challenging environments,” Intrator said of CoreWeave’s March IPO, which occurred very close to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April. “In spite of the incredible headwinds, we’re able to launch a successful IPO.”

CoreWeave, which priced its IPO at $40 per share, has experienced frequent severe up-and-down price swings in the eight months since its public market debut. At its closing price of $90.66 on Tuesday, the stock remains well above its IPO price.

As Fortune reported last month, CoreWeave’s rapid rise has been fueled by an aggressive, debt-heavy strategy to stand up data centers at unprecedented speed for AI customers. And for now, the bet is still paying off. In its third-quarter results released in November, the company said its revenue backlog nearly doubled in a single quarter—to $55.6 billion from $30 billion—reflecting long-term commitments from marquee clients including Meta, OpenAI, and French AI startup Poolside. Both earnings and revenue came in ahead of Wall Street expectations.

But the numbers were not all celebratory. CoreWeave disclosed a further increase in the debt it has taken on to finance its expansion, and it revised its full-year revenue outlook downward—suggesting that, even with historic demand in the pipeline.

With media headlines calling CoreWeave a “ticking time bomb,” with critics calling out insider stock sales, circular financing accusations and an overreliance on Nvidia, Intrator was asked whether he felt CoreWeave was misunderstood.

“Look, we built a company that is challenging one of the most stable businesses that exist—that cloud business, these three massive players,” he said, referring to AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud.  I feel like it’s incumbent on CoreWeave to introduce a new business model on how the cloud is going to be built and run. And that’s what we’re doing.” 

He repeatedly framed CoreWeave not as a GPU reseller or traditional data-center operator but as a company purpose-built from scratch to deliver high-performance, parallelized computing for AI workloads. That focus, he said, means designing proprietary software that orchestrates GPUs, building and colocating its own infrastructure, and moving “up the stack” through acquisitions such as Weights & Biases and OpenPipe.

Intrator also defended the company’s debt strategy, saying CoreWeave is effectively inventing a new financing model for AI infrastructure. He pointed to the company’s ability to repurpose power sources, rapidly deploy capacity, and finance large-scale clusters as proof it is solving problems incumbents never had to face.

“When I look back at history of the company, it took us a year with with a company investor like Fidelity, before they were like, ‘Oh, I get it,’” he said. “So look, we’ve been public for eight months. I couldn’t be prouder of what the company has accomplished.” 



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