Politics

Is an 11th hour ‘ban’ on cigarettes coming? Technically no, but a rule change reshaping the industry may be

Published

3 weeks ago

January 9, 2025

As part of his efforts to curb nicotine addiction and reduce harmful smoking habits, President Joe Biden’s administration is moving forward in the final days of his tenure with a proposed rule that would limit the amount of nicotine in cigarettes, a move critics say would effectively ban them altogether.

The rule, the details of which have not yet been made public, would reduce nicotine levels in cigarettes to a less addictive, possibly even non-addictive level, with the goal of pushing smokers to quit or to use less harmful products.

The rule, which has been in the works since 2022, was submitted by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) last month, and the OMB cleared it last week.

While the proposal carries with it myriad hopes for reducing harmful smoking — smoking and secondhand smoke exposure cause more than 480,000 deaths in the U.S. each year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) — it has created massive pushback from some who argue such a rule would push cigarette sales into the black market, making products potentially even more harmful and possibly handing the market to dangerous drug cartels.

The FDA announced its plans, under Biden’s administration, “to develop a proposed product standard that would establish a maximum nicotine level to reduce the addictiveness of cigarettes and certain other combusted tobacco products. The goal of the potential rule would be to reduce youth use, addiction and death.”

The announcement cited the CDC’s 480,000 annual deaths estimate and added that “tobacco use costs nearly $300 billion a year in direct health care and lost productivity.” The report notes that it is not nicotine that “makes smoking cigarettes so toxic,” but laments that it is the “ingredient that makes it very hard to quit smoking.”

Further, the announcement also included a citation from an FDA paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine in 2018 that projected a smoking rate of just 1.4% nationwide, from the current 12.5%, by 2100 if such a rule were implemented. That would translate to 8 million fewer deaths from tobacco-related illnesses, the agency said.

Yet as promising as those estimates are, critics are still concerned about what they describe as unintended consequences.

The National Association of Tobacco Outlets in late 2024 commissioned the firm Chmura to prepare a white paper analyzing impacts to the proposed rule. It looks at academic research that researchers say the FDA has previously referenced in establishing a maximum nicotine content of 0.3-0.5 milligrams per gram of tobacco, which would be a 95% reduction in nicotine levels currently used in cigarettes.

Indeed, its research found that such a reduction would lead to approximately just 6% of current legal cigarette sales in the U.S. as a result of demand reduction from users shifting to alternative products, reducing use, participating in illicit markets or quitting altogether.

That reduction to a market that sees more than $90 billion in sales each year, Chmura said, would be a crippling cut to tax revenue among taxing authorities at the federal, state and local levels, or a $24 billion overall reduction to total tax contributions. Its white paper suggests that, under such a rule, as much as 57.5% of future cigarette market sales could be concentrated to illicit providers, which would translate to approximately $43 billion in funding for illicit markets.

Those critical of the proposed rule further define such “illicit markets” as those benefiting transnational criminal organizations, such as cartels.

In a letter in 2023 to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, a bipartisan group of U.S. Senators — Republicans Marco Rubio, Bill Cassidy and Bill Hagerty, and Democrats Bob Casey and Mark Warner — warned of the influence of dangerous drug cartels from Mexico trafficking in black market cigarettes.

“In 2015, the State Department cited activity by terrorist groups, and criminal networks who have used tobacco trafficking operations to finance other crimes, including ‘money laundering, bulk cash smuggling, and the trafficking in humans, weapons, drugs, antiquities, diamonds, and counterfeit goods,’” the Senators wrote.

“Recently, public reporting has also noted these financial linkages between Mexican transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) involved in narcotics and fentanyl trafficking, and these tobacco smuggling activities. Mexican TCOs pose a grave threat to American national security and public health.”

And it’s not just politicians who are concerned. Rich Marianos is a former assistant director of the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives who specializes in counterterrorism, crime and law enforcement, criminal law, criminal victimization, and intelligence as an adjunct lecturer at Georgetown University. Marianos told Fox News this week that the proposed rule, which he referred to as a ban, “is a gift with a bow and balloons to organized crime cartels,” pointing not just to Mexico, but also Chinese organized crime and the Russian mafia.

“It’s going to keep America smoking, and it’s going to make the streets more violent,” he said.

Critics, including the tobacco industry itself, instead prefer harm-reduction efforts that emphasize a transition to e-cigarettes and other combustible tobacco product alternatives.

And even if the Biden administration approves the rule in its waning days — President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn into office on Jan. 20 — it’s not clear whether the rule would survive the incoming administration.

Trump himself is opposed to smoking, but hasn’t weighed in on this issue specifically. He previously voiced support for the vaping industry, and given the opposition from the tobacco industry, of which Reynolds American gave $8.5 million to Trump’s main super PAC in October, according to The New York Times, Trump may feel pressure to roll back the rule.

There is also public opinion to consider. The Biden administration previously postponed indefinitely its plan to ban menthol cigarettes, a move made amid election-year pushback. Operatives feared political backlash from Black voters in the November Presidential Election had the ban been implemented, according to The Associated Press. The administration gave no timeline for reviving the plan and, with just 11 days left in office, hasn’t revisited it.

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Palm Beach Gardens Council candidate faced stalking accusations; there’s texts

Published

5 hours ago

January 30, 2025

May Greene

Chuck Millar is a longtime Palm Beach Gardens resident. Over the past four decades, he’s become well-known in the community for his activism and involvement in local government, including a current unelected Chair post on the city’s Planning and Zoning Board.

Now, he’s seeking a seat on the City Commission. It’s his first run at public office.

Elections attract scrutiny. A look into Millar’s legal history shows that seven years ago, he faced accusations of cyberstalking and harassment. An ex-girlfriend sought a temporary restraining order against him, and she included in the request screenshots of messages he sent her.

The woman, whom we’ll call Kathy, filed a petition seeking protection against him for stalking, Palm Beach County Clerk records show. It included a request that Millar stay at least 500 feet from her and four people, including her two daughters, and the Jupiter-based K-12 private school they attended.

She provided proof that between March 4, 2018, when she broke up with him, and March 15, 2018, when she took legal action, Millar sent dozens of texts and emails to which she did not respond.

Some of the messages were sexually demeaning. In others, Millar implied that he was tracking her online dating accounts and referenced a domestic battery case from her past.

Millar is 65. He was 58 at the time he sent the messages. In an email to Millar’s sister seeking help, Kathy said they’d only dated a month, during which she’d broken up with him twice “due to his extreme and violent temper and outbursts that made no sense to me.”

Millar told Florida Politics they dated for a little more than a month. He regretted his actions and the whole ordeal, which ended on March 29, 2018, when Judge Karen Miller of the 15th Judicial Circuit instructed him to stop contacting Kathy before dismissing the case.

“I followed the court’s direction verbatim,” Millar said Thursday, adding that he’d since undergone counseling and treatment. “It made me a better person.”

Millar sent Kathy a lengthy text on March 4, 2018, after she cut things off with him, referencing “issues” and his “character flaws.”

“(I) take full responsibility for my faults. My heart is broken, but you tore my heart to pieces as I prayed each night you’d finally say you loved me, too. Those words are so powerful to me. You’re my true love, and I know it could work. I would have taken a bullet for you,” he wrote.

A screenshot of a text Chuck Millar sent an ex-girlfriend on March 4, 2018. Image via Palm Beach County Clerk’s Office.

Later that day, seemingly in response to Kathy telling him her decision was final, Millar’s amorous tenor turned vitriolic.

“I’m fucking done with you too. Go fuck yourself. Get out and stay the hell out of my life. You have serious mental health issues,” he wrote. “You can have your fucking underware (sic) back. Enjoy the pink vibrator. You’ll need it. Bitch!”

*Another text later that day. Image via Palm Beach County Clerk’s Office.*

Millar sent another text at 3:25 a.m. on March 5.

“Guaranteed the next time you have sex, you’ll think of me. Enjoy that train wreck,” he wrote. “And by the way, I read your entire file on your domestic battery case. It’s public record.”

Kathy said in her petition that she blocked Millar’s number after that.

*A text Millar sent early the following day. Image via Palm Beach County Clerk’s Office.*

He then sent her emails. One on March 8 was a variation of the prior message. “Your comment about never dating again is just total crap,” he wrote. “You know it, and I know it. But trust me, the next time you have sex with whomever or whatever, you’ll think of me.”

On March 10, Millar sent another email intimating Kathy had “a new man” and that the three of them should meet up at a baseball game. Two days later, he sent her an email titled “Weekend Fun” and asked about dates he believed Kathy had arranged on Match.com.

He wrote again on March 13, telling her, “Enjoy that vacation with your ex, no drama, mama. LOL.”

*An email Chuck Millar sent “Kathy” about her online dating activity. Image via Palm Beach County Clerk’s Office.*

Later that day, Kathy — who said she and the ex to whom Millar referred never vacationed together — emailed Millar’s sister with screenshots of his communications. Kathy described Millar’s actions as “creepy” and “very frightening” and noted that she’d instructed a security guard at her gated community to call the police if he showed up.

Millar’s sister called her brother’s messages “completely unhinged” and said she’d talk to her husband about developing a plan of action to deal with him. The sister told Kathy in a follow-up email that after conferring with her spouse, they’d decided to stay out of it but advised Kathy to “take whatever steps (are) necessary to ensure” her and her children’s safety, including filing a temporary injunction or calling the police.

In the days that followed, Millar continued with his emails. One included a message Kathy sent him about a continuous neighborhood issue she’d had with her homeowner’s association. In another, Millar said he’d spoken with one of the association’s board members with whom Kathy had an issue.

“I see this as a threat from Chuck that he will continue to contact (the board member) and get in my neighborhood that way. Empty threat because I have taken necessary action and alerted our Board and the Security company of his actions,” Kathy told Millar’s sister. “I’m terrified of your brother. He’s a loose canon (sic). Right now, I want to move as far away from him as I can, but I can’t.”

*An email from Chuck Millar’s sister to “Kathy.” Image via Palm Beach County Clerk’s Office.*

A log of texts sent to Kathy’s cellphone show he messaged her 25 separate times in nine days.

Florida Politics contacted Kathy by text and email for comment but received none by press time.

Millar told Florida Politics he was “very remorseful” about his behavior, which he attributed to issues he’s since addressed in therapy. He said it was the first time he’d been broken up with by text.

“My emotions overcame my intelligence. That doesn’t usually happen,” he said. “My past has made me what I am today, which is a better ex-husband, father, brother and employee, and the best and most qualified candidate.”

He said that if he thought he still had emotional issues that needed addressing, he wouldn’t be running for office.

“It was an unfortunate thing, but it was a learning tool that I use today to be a better person, to understand empathy and sympathy,” he said. “I have the utmost respect for women, and most of my campaign team is made up of amazing ladies.”

A land use, zoning, planning, and real estate research professional, Millar switched his voter registration from Democrat to Republican in 2016, according to state records. He faces 47-year-old Republican firefighter John Kemp for the City Council’s Group 4 seat.

The Palm Beach Gardens election is on March 11. In the race, incumbent Commissioner Marcie Tinsley and her lone challenger, John “Scott” Gilow, will also be on the ballot.

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Mike Haridopolos named Chair of House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics

Published

6 hours ago

January 30, 2025

May Greene

U.S. Rep. Mike Haridopolos and his Space Coast connections have already paid off for Florida, at least in terms of positioning.

Haridopolos, a Republican from Indian Harbour Beach representing Florida’s 8th Congressional District, has snagged a leadership position on the the House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics that will have direct impact on the Space Coast.

“I am honored to be selected to serve as Chairman of the Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee,” Haridopolos said in a news release announcing the appointment Thursday. “Since the earliest days of our space program, Florida’s Space Coast has been the launchpad for America’s journey to the stars. From the Apollo missions that first carried Americans to the Moon to today’s groundbreaking private sector launches, our skies have always been at the forefront of space exploration. Space is central to our district’s identity and economy, providing countless high-paying jobs and opportunities.”

That subcommittee oversees U.S. space policy and associated programs and reviews expansion of space exploration, security and innovation projects.

Rep. Brian Babin, a Republican Congressman from Texas, is the chair of the Congressional Committee on Science, Space and Technology (SST). He said adding Haridopolos to run the subcommittee was a good fit.

“Over the past several years, the SST Committee has diligently worked to support and advance our nation’s space endeavors. As the representative of Florida’s Space Coast, the Congressman brings valuable expertise and leadership that will undoubtedly enhance our efforts to keep America at the forefront of exploration and development. I am excited to work alongside him to propel our space agenda forward,” Babin said.

Just two weeks ago in his first address on the floor of the House, Haridopolos sang the praises of Donald Trump’s new presidential administration, hypothesizing the change in power would pay dividends for the Space Coast. Haridopolos also touted progress made by billionaire entrepreneur and Trump supporter Elon Musk, including Musk’s SpaceX, which he said has reinvigorated space programs in Brevard County.

“This renaissance has been powered by game-changing private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin, whose ingenuity has turned spaceflight into a thriving ecosystem of public-private collaboration,” Haridopolos said January 16.

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Politics

Last Call for 1.30.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

Published

7 hours ago

January 30, 2025

May Greene

Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Florida Republicans’ intraparty battle continued Thursday, with the Legislature telling the Governor that it was their way or the highway, not the other way around. Ron DeSantis returned the favor by threatening defiant lawmakers with primary challengers.

Reminiscent of a call by DeSantis earlier this month, House Speaker Daniel Perez held a town hall with state GOP leaders, pushing the Legislature’s narrative on the immigration bill scuffle packaged alongside criticism of the Governor’s plan.

According to those on the call, Perez said the Legislature’s bill was more conservative than the one pushed by DeSantis, which he claimed was a thinly veiled play to give the Governor a “mini version of ICE” that would duplicate the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown efforts rather than augment them.

“He (DeSantis) is not going to work with ICE. He wants a little mini version of ICE. He wants his own state guard, with his own bureaucrat, picking up the illegal aliens and shipping them off to another portion of the world, wherever it is that they originate from. That’s not working (in) conjunction with President Trump.”

The Governor, meanwhile, amped up his rhetoric — he has gone from casting the Legislature’s bill as “weak, weak, weak” to a “very grotesque piece of legislation.” He’s also directing more frustration at Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, whom he accused of instigating this saga by supposedly leveraging his influence as a former Senate President.

As it stands, the Legislature is still winning the numbers game, with just one GOP lawmaker — Rep. Mike Caruso — publicly breaking ranks to side with the Governor.

Evening Reads

—“Donald Trump blames predecessors, diversity programs for fatal air collision” via Isaac Arnsdorf of The Washington Post

—“The 25 most eye-popping lines from Trump’s off-the-rails remarks on the D.C. plane crash” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—“The plane crash that ripped through the world of elite figure skating” via Louise Radnofsky, Allison Pohle and Jennifer Levitz of The Wall Street Journal

—“Trump kicks Congress to the curb, with little protest from Republicans” via Carl Hulse of The New York Times

—“What it’s like to go to school in the shadow of ICE” via Anna North of Vox

—“Trump is just watching this crisis unfold” via David A. Graham of The Atlantic

—”As GOP rift widens, Ron DeSantis pledges money to elect ‘strong conservative’ successor” via Skyler Swisher of the Orlando Sentinel

—”Joel Rudman said he felt unwelcome in a House ‘itching for a fight’ with DeSantis” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics

—”‘Powerless and angry’: Venezuelans react to roll-back of deportation protections” via Verónica Egui Brito and Syra Ortiz Blanes of the Miami Herald

—”Mercenaries for Millionaires: Inside the private army that protects L.A.’s rich and famous” via Jason McGahan of The Hollywood Reporter

Quote of the Day

“This was an argument waiting for an excuse. If not for immigration, they would have fought over new hours for the cafeteria.”

— Former Rep. Joel Rudman, on the Legislature v. Ron DeSantis bout.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Rudman’s campaign for Florida’s 1st Congressional District may’ve gone bust, but Doc Rock deserves a “Peace Out” for heading for the exit before the gloves came off.

Separate from his war with the Legislature, DeSantis is catching flak from Tucker Carlson, who called him a “donors’ puppet.” Since the strings aren’t showing up on camera, however, we’re recommending he be served a Muppet.

With all the drama, we imagine rank-and-file staffers are itching for politics-free happy hour. A Paris Between the Wars should help them forget work for a few minutes.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Gators face Vols in key rematch

For the second time this month, the Florida Gators and Tennessee Volunteers meet when the teams tip off on Saturday in Knoxville (noon ET, ESPN).

On Jan. 7, Florida shocked then-top-ranked Tennessee 73-43 in Gainesville. The win was among the Gators’ most notable regular-season victories in program history. Ince beating Tennessee, Florida (18-2, 5-2 SEC) has won four of five games, only losing to Missouri on Jan. 14.

The game is the first since the school cleared Florida head coach Todd Golden following a four-month investigation into sexual misconduct allegations.

Both teams enter the game ranked in the top 10 of the Associated Press poll. Florida is ranked #5, while Tennessee (17-4, 4-4) is ranked eighth. The game is also the first of four straight for the Gators against ranked teams. Between now and Feb. 11, Florida will face Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Mississippi State.

The Gators are coming off an 89-59 win over Georgia on Saturday. Five Gators scored in double figures in the game, including Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin, who each scored 17 points. Both rank in the top 10 in scoring average in the SEC. Clayton is tied for sixth (17.8 points per game), while Martin is tied for 10th (16.1).

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.

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