In 2012, as the GOP faithful were descending upon Tampa for that year’s Republican National Convention, a billboard along Interstate 275 announced to attendees a big, bold welcome to the city.

The billboard included what was a fairly well-known factoid locally at the time, but probably little-known elsewhere, that Tampa was home to a Democratic Mayor (Bob Buckhorn at the time) and an all-Democrat City Council.

More than a decade later, it’s still that way. But could a Republican claw back a seat on the otherwise liberal dais?

Rep. Dianne Hart worries it could happen. Speaking to Creative Loafing Tampa, Hart said she was concerned about the potential for vote-splitting that could benefit Republicans in the upcoming Special Election for the District 5 seat on the Tampa City Council.

Already, it’s a crowded race, with 12 candidates filed (it would have been 13, but former City Council member Orlando Gudes has since dropped out after issues with his residency were first reported by Florida Politics). Of those 12, four are Republicans.

First, it’s important to note that Tampa City Council races are nonpartisan, and candidates cannot disclose, advertise or otherwise tout their political affiliation. But in today’s hyperpartisan environment, it’s nearly impossible for nonpartisan races to actually be nonpartisan.

That disclaimer aside, to understand Hart’s concern about a Republican capitalizing on vote-splitting, one must first understand how City Council races are decided.

First, there is an election. If no candidate receives more than half the total vote, the top two finishers move on to a runoff election. And with a dozen candidates in the mix, it’s all but certain no one will meet that threshold.

After understanding that, it’s just a question of basic math.

There are eight Democrats running and four Republicans. Assuming (and it’s a big assumption) that Democrats vote for Democrats and Republicans vote for Republicans, Dems would be splitting their vote eight ways, while Republicans would be splitting theirs only four ways.

That could mean (emphasis on “could”) that the top vote-getters overall end up being Republicans, even though Republicans are far outnumbered in the district.

There are just under 25,000 Democrats in the district, compared to just over 7,700 Republicans. Assuming an equal eight-way split for Democrats and just a four-way split for Republicans, Dems would still have a big edge, with about 3,100 votes for each candidate on their side. Republicans would walk away with just under 2,000 votes each.

But consider that Republicans tend to turn out in higher numbers and that Special Elections are typically low-turnout affairs. In addition, not all candidates will gain traction, and nonpartisan voters, of which there are about 10,000, could fuzzy the math.

With all of that, it’s easy to see where Hart is coming from.

And there’s this: Elvis Piggott is a perennial candidate who has run unsuccessfully for a number of elected offices, including for the Hillsborough County School Board last year and in 2020, and for the Hillsborough County Commission in 2018.

He garnered less than 14% of the vote in the three-way race for School Board last year, collecting just 2,666 votes in the Primary out of about 19,000 cast. In 2020, he earned 12% of the vote in the School Board Primary, and in 2018 for County Commission he collected about 17% of the vote … in the Democratic Primary, because back then, he was a Democrat.

It’s likely he’ll underperform compared to other candidates in this race. If that’s the case, the GOP vote- split is down from four to just three, which changes the math entirely.

To be clear, a Republican victory is a long shot, but the crowded race improves the odds from what should be a near impossibility.

Whether any Republicans are gaining traction in the race isn’t yet clear. Aside from Piggott, Republicans in the race include Audette Bruce, Alison Hewitt and Melony Letitia Williams. None of the four have reported raising any funds, though two entered the race after the most recently concluded finance period, meaning their financial activity is still unknown. None of the four have yet announced any major endorsements.

That picture will become more clear once all four have filed campaign finance reports — Piggott and Williams have, but didn’t report any financial activity, while Bruce and Hewitt won’t file their first reports until Aug. 15.

Some Democrats in the race, meanwhile, have already begun separating themselves from the pack.

Ariel Amirah Danley, the daughter of late City Council member Gwen Henderson whose unexpected death prompted the Special Election, has already raised more than $13,000. Much of that includes financial activity from the current fundraising period, for which reports are not due until next month, but it still puts her ahead of the group for now.

Juawana Colbert, a Realtor who gained some measure of fame by appearing on a Netflix reality television series called “Selling Tampa,” has so far raised more than $8,000.

Two other candidates, Thomas Scott and Fran Tate, have also posted fundraising activity, but it was nominal, at $500 and $100, respectively.

The bottom line is, it’s hard to say this early in the game who the front-runner(s) will be in this race. As the daughter of the departed City Council member, Danley seems to have a strong claim. And the reality TV fame Colbert enjoys could help her raise big bucks, which would certainly provide an advantage.

The race also features Scott, who is a former Tampa City Council member and former Hillsborough County Commissioner, name ID that could give him a boost. But he also has been out of the game for a while and his 2020 attempt to reemerge sputtered in a Democratic Primary for Hillsborough County Commission.

Beyond that, the crowded race features a lot of relatively political unknowns. And even though the race is rushed by General Election standards, a lot can still change. Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections Craig Latimer scheduled a Special Election to replace Henderson for Sept. 9. Candidate qualifying for the race doesn’t begin until Aug. 11 and ends Aug. 15.

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