As Donald Trump and his advisors concocted a global tariff plan unleashed via placard at the White House on Wednesday afternoon, little thought was probably given to Northern Ireland, a country with a population around the size of West Virginia.

However, Northern Ireland, one of the four countries that make up the United Kingdom, has been left in perhaps the most unique position of all Trump’s myriad trade targets. 

The U.S. slapped the EU, and member state Ireland, with blanket 20% import tariffs, while the U.K. received 10% retaliatory duties. That has put Northern Irish exporters, namely its whiskey makers, at an advantage over its neighbors in the south.

Unfortunately for the nation with an incredibly fraught past, it also reignites tensions about its future status. 

A special relationship

Northern Ireland, formed in 1921 after Ireland’s 32 counties in the south gained independence from the U.K., suffered through a three-decade-long bloody conflict called “The Troubles,” concluding with the Good Friday Agreement in 1998.

In the almost three decades since, Northern Ireland has slowly rebuilt itself with the aid of a young, cheap, educated workforce, and a hefty amount of foreign direct investment from both EU and U.S. multinationals. 

Illinois-based insurance firm Allstate employs more than 2,000 people in Belfast. Meanwhile, Spirit AeroSystems, set to be acquired by Boeing, and French arms contractor Thales have extensive operations in Northern Ireland. 

One outcome linked to the region’s harrowing past, and its geographical bind to the EU through Ireland, was a special exemption from the U.K.’s hard exit from the bloc in 2020. The Windsor Framework allows Northern Irish goods to travel into the EU largely tariff-free through the single market while also moving without duties into the U.K. 

There are some obvious areas where Americans might turn their eyes north of Dublin as a result of Trump’s tariffs. Bushmills, a Northern Irish whiskey, is now cheaper to import than popular southern alternatives, including Jameson and Redbreast.

However, as has often been the case in Northern Ireland’s post-conflict era, the country rests on a knife-edge as bigger players decide its fate.

NI’s risks

Northern Ireland is now beholden to EU retaliation.

Northern Ireland’s special status within the U.K. means goods that enter the country from outside the EU are regarded as being “at risk” of moving into the bloc’s single market. The EU could put extra tariffs on Norhtern Irish goods bound for the bloc if it retaliates against Trump and pushes U.S. import duties higher.

That challenging quirk hasn’t been lost on Northern Ireland’s policymakers.

“Northern Ireland remains exposed to potential EU retaliation, and local businesses must not become collateral damage,” said DUP leader Gavin Robinson in a post on X.

“The Government must take urgent steps to protect Northern Ireland’s interests and ensure our place in the UK internal market is fully safeguarded.”

The question of Northern Ireland is a “complex one,” said Morgan Stanley’s chief U.K. economist Bruna Skarica in a Thursday briefing note.

If the U.K. and EU refrain from further retaliation, Northern Ireland’s largely tariff-free access to the EU should remain intact, leaving it to enjoy a new export advantage over the Republic.

“However, should the EU take action in response to US import tariffs, all goods that are subject to these EU tariffs and are brought into Northern Ireland from outside the EU could then be treated as “at risk” goods, unless exempted,” said Skarica.

Beyond Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit precarity, tariffs of any shape will make for unpleasant reading. The country is vulnerable to downstream effects of tariffs through its supply chain and wider trading links with the EU. 

Trump’s tariffs are partly designed to encourage U.S. multinationals to reshore production and jobs to the U.S. There was already anxiety in Northern Ireland following Boeing’s acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems. News of fresh tariffs will do little to quell those fears.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

The Philippines reacted with “guarded optimism” Thursday to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, saying higher rates placed on its neighbours could present an opportunity.

The longtime U.S. ally was hit with a reciprocal levy of 17%, though Manila’s Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) noted the country ranked among “the least hit”.

“As we have expected, the Philippines is among the least hit among key exporters to the U.S.,” it said, noting significantly higher tariffs placed on Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%) and Taiwan (32%).

“The new tariffs also put the Philippines in a more advantageous position… specifically for certain export products,” said trade secretary Cristina Roque, citing coconuts as a possibility.

“The task at hand right now for DTI and other government agencies is how to act fast and take advantage of this new development,” she said.

While the percentage of Philippine GDP derived from exports is significantly lower than its neighbours, Roque said the United States remained a “crucial export market”.

U.S. Embassy data shows Washington’s trade goods deficit with Manila stood at $4.9 billion in 2024, up 21.8% on-year.

But while Manila saw the positive side, it also signalled a readiness to engage in talks.

The Philippines was prepared to discuss “enhanced market access” for key U.S. “export interests, such as automobiles, dairy products, frozen meat, and soybeans”, Roque said.

She has already reached out to her U.S. counterpart to set up talks, her statement said.

While slightly more than half of the roughly 17% U.S. share of Philippine exports is represented by electronic components, specifics about targets were thin.

“As of now, we still don’t have the details on the industries that will be affected,” presidential palace spokeswoman Claire Castro told reporters.

But Victor Abola, senior economist at Manila’s University of Asia and the Pacific, told AFP he expected semiconductor exports and “probably a bit of wiring harness” sales to be impacted.

Many electronic components, however, were already going to Japan and China, the Philippines’ two other top markets, he said.

And even if electronic parts were targeted, the Philippines could still come out ahead given the higher duties placed on regional competitors, Abola said.

That disparity could even see factories lured to the country, he added, while cautioning that could take time.

George Barcelon, chairman of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, also said he preferred to look at the tariffs “from the positive side” owing to the fact other countries faced higher levies.

While admitting US consistency on the issue could be cause for concern, Barcelon suggested pushback at home could eventually see Trump revisit the issue.

“Sometimes, you know, imposing these kinds of tariffs may have a downside for the U.S. consumer, so (Trump) might react later on and change it,” he said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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