The U.S. and Iran remain deadlocked over reopening the Strait of Hormuz as each side tries to see how long the other can hold out, and signs of significant oil flows out of the Persian Gulf indicate President Donald Trump is betting he has additional leeway.
In the past week, the administration has pushed back against the narrative that Iran has virtually shut down the critical chokepoint with the threat of missiles and drones.
That’s as traffic data since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed has shown just a trickle of ships are openly transiting the strait, suggesting another supply shock ahead for global energy markets. But more tankers are sailing “dark,” meaning their transponders have been turned off and are no longer broadcasting their location.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday that the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait was almost 9 million barrels per day and credited the U.S. military as well as Gulf allies.
When combined with another 5 million-7 million barrels per day shipped via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows average about 15 million barrels per day, he added in a post on X. That compares with 20 million barrels that were exported daily before the war.
Similarly, a U.S. official told Axios on Sunday that about 8 million barrels are quietly exiting the Gulf each night through a southern lane in the Strait of Hormuz with help from the U.S. military.
Before the ceasefire agreement fell apart, the U.S. military guided tankers through an alternate route that hugs the Omani coast and provided some protection. Enough ships made it out of the Gulf, easing pressure on global oil markets. But that prompted Iran to attack vessels trying to bypass its own corridor, reigniting hostilities and leading to the current standoff.
Some experts doubt the recent Gulf shipment numbers are as high as the Trump administration claims—but not by that much. Oil market researcher Rory Johnston estimated that average volumes out of Hormuz peaked at 7 million barrels per day over the past week and acknowledged that could be higher because of the uncertainty around dark transits. Meanwhile, pipelines are exporting about 4 million barrels per day.
In addition to dark transits, another tactic for sneaking oil supplies through the strait is ship-to-ship transfers, a practice Iran and Russia have previously used to get their oil tankers past Western sanctions.
Bessent’s warns of ‘economic isolation’
To slip under Iran’s nose, tankers exit the Gulf, transfer their oil to another ship off the coast of Oman, then shuttle back through the strait to do it all over again. Not all ships go undetected, which explains why Iran is still attacking ships even as it claims the strait is completely shut down.
But the U.S. naval blockade is preventing Iran from exporting its oil via the Strait of Hormuz, depriving the regime of a vital revenue lifeline. At the same time, other Gulf oil producers like Iraq, which depends heavily on the strait, are getting their barrels out by way of dark transits and ship-to-ship transfers
“Hefty chunk of non-Iranian crude still getting out, unlike the Iranian crude that isn’t,” Johnston posted on X.
Global oil markets still face a supply deficit, forcing consuming countries to tap reserves that are already low and heading toward critical levels soon.
But the oil that’s coming out of the Gulf provides additional wiggle room. In fact, crude prices have declined since spiking last month when the ceasefire ended and fighting flared up again.
An oil market reprieve also gives Trump more time to squeeze Iran’s economy with his naval blockade, which some officials in Tehran have admitted is causing an economic collapse. And even more pressure could be on the way.
“It will be a combination of economic isolation like the world has never seen before, and the continued blockade in the Strait of Hormuz that will keep anything from going in or out of the Iranian ports,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax without elaborating.
