Internal poll shows Mike Liebelson narrowly leading Boca Raton Mayor’s race

Boca Raton mayoral candidate Mike Liebelson holds a narrow edge in the race against two current City Council members, and he may be gaining momentum as Election Day approaches, new internal polling shows.

A survey conducted for Liebelson’s campaign found he leads the three-person field with 32%, followed closely by Andy Thomson with 30% and Fran Nachlas with 15%.

Twenty-three percent of voters remain undecided ahead of the March 10 contest.

A memo accompanying the polling figures, provided to Florida Politics by Jupiter-based Public Concepts LLC, framed the races as a two-candidate battle between Liebelson and Thomson, arguing that Nachlas has reached a ceiling of support and has “no viable pathway to victory.”

The survey also measured broader voter sentiment about the city’s direction. Most respondents (61%) believe Boca Raton is on the wrong track, while fewer than 1 in 5 say the opposite.

That dissatisfaction with the city’s trajectory may benefit Liebelson; among voters who think the city is going the incorrect way, he leads Thomson by a sizable margin — 45% to 30%, with Nachlas holding just a 4% share of support.

In terms of favorability, only Liebelson is above water, the poll shows, with +12 net approval. Thomson, meanwhile, registered slightly negative ratings overall (-3). And Nachlas posted a significantly negative net score (-25).

The campaign surveyed 315 likely Boca Raton voters March 2-4. The poll had a 5.6-percentage-point margin of error at a 95% confidence interval.

Campaign officials said additional tracking surveys conducted since December indicate Liebelson’s support has increased over time, while Thomson’s has gradually gone down. A graphic, viewable below, shows Liebelson’s support started in the single digits (6%), while Thomson began at 36% support and steadily lost backing over the past three months.

Nachlas actually slightly gained ground, rising from 12% to 15% support over the same period.

Liebelson, a political newcomer who describes himself as an outsider candidate, said the poll reflects growing support for his campaign message.

“Our campaign is showing clear momentum, and the energy on the ground in Boca supports what the polling reflects,” he said in a statement included in the memo. “Voters want leaders who aren’t beholden to developers and I’m the best candidate to deliver that change.”

State voter records show Liebelson, 70, is currently registered as a Republican, though he was registered as a Democrat from 2020 to 2022 and without political affiliation before beginning in 2019, when he registered to vote in Florida.

Thomson, 43, is a Democrat and registered to vote in 2000. Nachlas, 59, is a Republican and registered in 1996.

Other races on Boca Raton’s ballot Tuesday are Bernard Korn, Christen Richey and Michelle Grau for Seat A on the City Council; incumbent Marc Wigder, Meredith Madsen and Jon Pearlman for Seat B; and Robert Weinroth, Stacy Sipple and Larry Cellon for Seat D.

Voters also face two ballot questions on whether the city should issue up to $175 million in bonds to build and equip a new police headquarters and related public safety facilities, and whether the city should approve a 99-year lease of 7.8 acres of city-owned land near the Brightline station to Terra Group-associated Boca Raton City Center LLC, which wants to build a mixed-use development with residential, retail, office and hotel space.