Internal poll shows Jerry Holland defeating Donna Deegan in Jacksonville Mayor’s race

With more than a year before qualifying, at least one potentially significant challenger to Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan is testing the waters against the first-term Democrat.

Political perennial Jerry Holland, a Republican who was elected without opposition to again be Duval County Elections Supervisor in 2023, has not been shy about saying he’s looking at the race.

And a new phone poll suggests he has a shot.

The survey, commissioned for Holland last month by political consultant Matt Justice, shows Holland leading Deegan 47% to 41% in a head-to-head ballot test.

To get to that two-way contest, Deegan and Holland would have to clear a multicandidate First Election, a blanket Primary where all candidates compete and the top two emerge, unless one gets a majority of the vote.

In that scenario, Justice’s polling shows Deegan with 47% support, Holland with 29%, Jacksonville City Councilman Ron Salem with 6%, and House Speaker Pro Tempore Wyman Duggan with 1%. The remaining 17% is up for grabs.

Some will question the sample.

While the First Election involved 418 responses, the General Election ballot test included just 160. In both cases, these “likely voters” either cast ballots in the 2023 mayoral election or voted in the 2022 and 2024 party Primaries.

The First Election poll has a 5-percentage-point margin of error, while the General Election survey has an margin of error of 8 percentage points.

The results are also weighted to reflect the 2023 turnout model’s slight GOP lean, with responses from Democrats removed to reflect that ratio.

While some will question the methodology of the poll, it nonetheless shows that some sort of competitive mayoral race may emerge.

Deegan has already been gearing up, as shown by a recent uptick in fundraising for her political committee. Her “Duval for All” political committee has raised more than $1 million to date, including $643,150 in the quarter ending Sept. 30.

No major candidate has confirmed plans to run against Deegan in 2027’s Duval County Elections, though three political newcomers have filed officially.

They don’t look like they can compete with Deegan should they qualify next January for the First Election in March.

Ronald Armstrong Jr. is the only one to report any financial activity, raising just over $20,000 and already spending more than $12,000 of that.

The strongest fundraising of any potential opponent is from Duggan’s Citizens For Building Florida’s Future political committee, which closed September with roughly $780,000 on hand.

Deegan defeated Republican Daniel Davis in 2023 despite a Republican turnout advantage. The GOP continues to make registration inroads, closing to within 5,000 voters of historically dominant Democrats.

Holland has the deepest résumé of any potential candidate. He will have served 14 years as Supervisor of Elections, eight years as Duval County Property Appraiser, and also as President of the Jacksonville City Council.

Republicans have talked of an “invisible Primary” to consolidate support ahead of the election cycle against the still-popular Deegan, who took advantage of a fragmented GOP two years ago. What’s clear is that Holland wants into that conversation.