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Hurricane Erin picking up steam as it edges along the East Coast

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Hurricane Erin began strengthening again Wednesday while creeping toward the mid-Atlantic coast and churning up menacing waves that have closed beaches from the Carolinas to New York City.

Forecasters expect the storm to peak over the next 48 hours and say it could re-intensify into a major hurricane by Wednesday night.

While Erin is unlikely to make landfall along the East Coast before turning farther out to sea, authorities expect its large swells will cut off roads to villages and vacation homes on North Carolina’s Outer Banks and whip up life-threatening rip currents from Florida to New England.

New York City closed its beaches to swimming on Wednesday and Thursday. Some beaches in New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware also will be temporarily off-limits.

Off Massachusetts, Nantucket Island could see waves of more than 10 feet (3 meters) later this week. But the biggest threat remained along the Outer Banks.

Despite the beach closures, some swimmers were continuing to ignore the warnings. Rescuers saved more than a dozen people caught in rip currents Tuesday at Wrightsville Beach in North Carolina — a day after more than 80 people were rescued.

Bob Oravec, the lead National Weather Service forecaster in College Park, Maryland, said even if someone thinks they know how to handle a rip current, it’s still not safe in the current conditions.

“You can be aware all you want,” he said. “It can still be dangerous.”

A combination of fierce winds and huge waves — estimated to be about 20 feet (6.1 meters) in height — could cause coastal flooding in many beachfront communities, North Carolina officials warned on Wednesday.

“Regardless of the track of the center of the storm, dangerous conditions can be felt far from the eye, especially with a system as large as Erin,” said Will Ray, the state’s Emergency Management Director.

Dozens of beach homes already worn down from chronic beach erosion and the loss of protective dunes could be at risk, said David Hallac, Superintendent of the Cape Hatteras National Seashore.

The National Hurricane Center is also watching two tropical disturbances to the east of Erin that could develop into named cyclones. With thousands of miles of warm ocean water, hurricanes known as Cape Verde storms are some of the most dangerous that threaten North America.

Water from the Atlantic already was washing onto the main route through the Outer Banks on Wednesday, and some sections are likely to be impassable during high tide later in the evening.

Authorities warned that time was running out to leave, but most residents decided to stay despite evacuations ordered on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands.

“We probably wouldn’t stay if it was coming directly at us,” said Rob Temple, who operates sailboat cruises on Ocracoke.

His biggest concern was whether the main route will be washed out, and if tourists and delivery trucks will be cut off from the thin stretch of low-lying barrier islands that are increasingly vulnerable to storm surges.

Erin has become an unusually large and deceptively worrisome storm, with its tropical storm winds covering 500 miles (800 kilometers) from edge to edge — roughly the distances from New York City to Pittsburgh.

Erin remained a strong Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph (180 kph), the National Hurricane Center said. It was about 365 miles (590 kilometers) south-southeast of North Carolina’s Cape Hatteras.

Tropical storm warnings were issued for North Carolina and Virginia, while in Bermuda the government warned residents and tourists to stay out of the water, as rough seas are expected through Friday.

Climate scientists say Atlantic hurricanes are now much more likely to rapidly intensify into powerful and catastrophic storms fueled by warmer oceans.

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Republished with permission of The Associated Press.


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Stan McClain, Lauren Melo push for ‘Blue Ribbon’ projects to boost land preservation

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State lawmakers are considering a proposal aimed at encouraging Florida’s largest private landowners to serve as long-term stewards of both the natural and built environments, offering a framework supporters say better aligns growth, conservation and infrastructure planning.

Sen. Stan McClain and Rep. Lauren Melo have each filed bills (SB 354, HB 299) establishing “Blue Ribbon” projects, which would apply to landowners who control or own at least 10,000 or more contiguous acres. The measures would require participating landowners to conserve at least 60% of the property.

Under the bill, the plan must prescribe the development property over a 50-year planning period by meeting strict statutory requirements. Landowners would still have to earn approval from local governments based on compliance with the statutes, including development orders, and concurrency. 

“HB 299 creates a framework that secures large-scale private land conservation for the long term — without requiring state purchase or taxpayer subsidies,” Melo said.

“The legislation not only fosters responsible growth, it also expands the availability of attainable housing for Florida families. The Blue Ribbon Projects bill strikes a balance that will be good for our communities, while protecting natural spaces, wildlife corridors and critical water recharge areas.” 

The stated Blue Ribbon project goals are to protect wildlife and natural areas; limit urban sprawl; provide a range of housing options including missing middle and affordable housing; create quality communities designed to reduce vehicle trips and promote mobility options; and enhance local economic development objectives and job creation.

The proposal is born of a desire to implement smart growth strategies by ensuring growth occurs only where it can be supported. The proposal requires phased planning for water, wastewater, transportation, schools and utilities.

It also emphasizes sustainability beyond just conservation lands, by ensuring new development supports population density in compact communities that are mobility focused.

The measure also seeks to ensure the state is a good steward of taxpayer dollars, by allowing conservation lands to be secured without public dollars. 

Still in its early phases, the bill has some early detractors, such as the Sierra Club, worried the proposal constitutes a local government preemption. But Audubon Florida’s Beth Alvi has not taken a direct position and remains hopeful, telling POLITICO that Melo “has always been solutions-oriented and is a devoted advocate for her community.”

Supporters, meanwhile, argue the process actually gives local residents more say in development in or near their communities through a real remedy process for landowners or anyone who objects to the project proposal.

“These bills are about the Florida we leave behind. They secure meaningful land conservation at no cost to taxpayers, while giving our state a responsible way to plan for future growth. SB 354 and HB 299 also bring fairness and predictability to the review process and support sustainable development that pays its own way — providing the long-term certainty communities and local governments need to plan wisely,” McClain said.

The House version of the bill will be heard in its first committee, the Intergovernmental Affairs Subcommittee, Thursday at 9 a.m.



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First Coast manufacturing was generally flat in November, with signs of improvement

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First Coast manufacturers put the brakes on contraction for the first time in months in November, though the general industrial picture was flat.

The University of North Florida (UNF) Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey (JEMS) shows several sectors of the manufacturing elements expanded in November, the most upbeat turnaround on the First Coast in several months. Seven out of the 12 elements of the UNF survey showed the Purchase Managers Index (PMI) expanded last month. That’s a big change from October, when only two sectors showed expansion.

“Jacksonville’s headline PMI of 50 in November indicates that local manufacturing activity was essentially flat. This stands in contrast to the national PMI of 48.2, which shows that U.S. manufacturing continued to contract at a faster pace,” said Albert Loh, Interim Dean of the UNF Coggin College of Business who oversees the JEMS survey.

“Still, a flat PMI is relatively positive when compared with deeper national declines and highlights Jacksonville’s resilience heading toward 2026.”

UNF researchers from the JEMS project reach out to First Coast manufacturing companies each month to see where they stand on production and several other factors.

One of the key factors that showed expansion for North Florida manufacturers in October was output, which jumped from a 49 figure in October to 53 in November.

“A reading of 53 suggests a modest but meaningful pickup in business activity in the region. While not signaling a boom, it reflects resilience and indicates that local firms are navigating cost pressures, supply chain adjustments, and mixed demand with cautious optimism,” the JEMS report concluded.

New orders, another high-profile manufacturing element, also showed a substantial uptick increasing from a figure of 49 in October to 52 in November.

“New orders are a leading indicator, so this improvement points to potentially stronger production, hiring, and inventory activity ahead,” the JEMS report said.

Other factors that showed expansion in North Florida last month included output prices, average input prices, quantity of input purchased, inventory of input purchased and business activity outlook over the next year.

Key elements that are still sluggish with contraction included employment, backlogs of work, finished goods inventory and suppliers’ delivery times. New export orders were unchanged.



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Democrats question how court cases upholding Florida’s congressional map warrant redrawing it

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No congressional maps were presented at a second meeting of the Florida House’s redistricting committee. Now, Democrats are questioning why any would be drafted at all.

Andy Bardos, counsel for the House, told members that two key court cases contribute to a different legal landscape than when the Legislature last approved congressional lines in 2022. Most importantly, the Florida Supreme Court upheld that map, which was drawn by Gov. Ron DeSantis’ staff and broke up a seat previously held by a Black Democrat. The other case out of Louisiana awaits a Supreme Court ruling in the coming term.

Rep. Kevin Chambliss, a Homestead Democrat, questioned how the Florida Supreme Court upholding the existing map merited the reconsideration of new lines.

“That map was deemed constitutional,” Chambliss said. “If that was conclusive to an action, then that means that’s done. So then what is the reason why we’re doing it now? I’m confused, because it seems like there was a conclusion there based on the court case, and now we’re having a conversation where the second court case isn’t even finished yet.”

Bardos stressed that the only reason the Florida Supreme Court considered the congressional map was because civil rights groups sued, but the legal challenge focused only on the breakup of the North Florida seat previously represented by U.S. Rep. Al Lawson.

Justices upheld the map, but determined the prior configuration of Lawson’s seat, itself the product of a 2015 Supreme Court decision, improperly considered race as the predominant motivation in drawing a district spanning from Tallahassee to Jacksonville.

“In the process of deciding that, the court articulated legal principles that had never before been set forth by a court in that way,” Bardos said.

For example, he said that even if lawmakers want to hold to a nondiminishment requirement in the “Fair Districts” amendments in Florida’s Constitution, lawmakers “can’t make race predominant.”

Still, Bardos in presentations also explained that portions of Florida’s Fair Districts remain unchanged, including a ban on drawing maps to favor a political party.

That could likely fuel any legal challenge to maps produced by the Legislature ahead of the 2026 Midterms. President Donald Trump has pressured Republican-controlled Legislatures to draw House maps that better improve the situation for Republicans.

Minutes before the Wednesday redistricting meeting, Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters, a member of the Florida Senate, reposted a prediction on X that Florida could net as many as five seats in redistricting. Florida’s U.S. House delegation currently includes 20 Republicans and eight Democrats.

But notably, the House is moving forward with redistricting before DeSantis or the Florida Senate takes action. Both the Governor and Senate President Ben Albritton said they think new cartography should wait until the Supreme Court rules in another redistricting case, Louisiana v. Callais.

“Just no matter what else happens, that is going to have to be addressed,” DeSantis said last week.

Bardos said any ruling on that case will only directly impact Louisiana. However, he said the Legislature may take action at any point to adhere to legal principles set forth in that ruling, issues that will impact any court challenges to political cartography in the future.

Rep. Bruce Antone, an Orlando Democrat, suggested there’s no legally compelling reason for the Legislature to look at maps right now.

“Once a state goes through the redistricting process, what compelling reasons would there be outside of a court case requiring redistricting?” Antone said. “What compelling reasons would require us to do this exercise a second time, mid-census?”

Rep. Mike Redondo, a Miami Republican chairing the House redistricting committee, said he didn’t want lawmakers discussing “hypotheticals,” including whether lawmakers would even consider a new map. He also said lawmakers can undertake whatever process they choose, including still deciding whether to undertake field meetings around Florida.

“As a body, we’re going to make those decisions in terms of how input will be received.”

But at the meeting on Wednesday, the committee took no public comment, including from South Florida members of the public who bussed to the hearing.



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