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How much is AI really replacing jobs? Goldman Sachs looks under the hood and has 3 takeaways to defuse the hype

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There’s a lot of speculation, including in the pages of Fortune Intelligence, about the impact that artificial intelligence will have on the jobs of the future. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius is on the case, leading a team that draws from a breadth of industry surveys, government data, and proprietary analysis to produce an AI Adoption Tracker.

For the second quarter of 2025, Hatzius’ team found “notable progress” in AI adoption, with 9.2% of U.S. companies using AI to produce goods or services, compared to 7.4% in the first quarter. The report also delivers a nuanced picture, finding that while generative AI and related technologies are rapidly reshaping corporate investment and productivity, their effect on employment is evolving at a slower, subtler pace.

Here are three takeaways from the Goldman AI Adoption Tracker.

1. Limited labor market disruption (so far)

Despite a surge in AI adoption across U.S. firms, the research note found overall labor market outcomes remain largely unaffected for now. Simply put, “AI’s impact on the labor market remains limited and there is no sign of a significant impact on most labor market outcomes.” This contrasts with signs that the tech sector is cutting jobs exposed to AI, and with several prominent CEOs warning AI could displace upward of 50% of the white-collar workforce.

Specifically, Goldman says key metrics such as job growth, wage gains, unemployment rates, and layoff rates in AI-exposed industries have shown little statistically significant deviation from less exposed sectors. AI-related job postings now account for 24% of all IT openings, but still represent just 1.5% of total job postings, indicating that while technology roles are adapting, the broader workforce shift is gradual.

Notably, the unemployment rate for AI-exposed occupations has now reconciled with the wider economy, refuting early fears of mass displacement. There have been no recent layoff announcements explicitly citing AI as the cause, further underscoring the current containment of disruption to specific functions rather than entire industries.

Goldman Sachs

On the other hand, the analysts noted, payrolls growth continues to underperform in occupations where AI is having an anecdotal impact, as with the notable example of telephone call centers. This suggests that something is happening that is only being whispered about. Still, it’s early days.

2. Productivity gains concentrated, but significant

Goldman says AI’s influence on productivity where it’s already been deployed is pronounced. Hatzius’ team cited academic studies and company anecdotes indicating generative AI adoption delivers, on average, a 23%–29% boost to labor productivity. The estimates vary, with academic studies generating a median of 16% and average of 23%, while company anecdotes produce a median of 30% and average of 29%. Still, this suggests tangible efficiency improvements for early adopters.

Sectors leveraging generative AI most actively—information, finance, and professional services—are seeing the largest increases in productivity as firms move from experimentation to integrating AI into their core workflows.

Business leaders and economists expect that as adoption deepens and more organizations build AI into their infrastructure, the aggregate productivity impact will become more visible in macroeconomic data.

3. The AI employment story: still in its early chapters

A recurring theme in the Goldman Sachs analysis is that the full employment effect of AI is still developing. While AI-related openings are growing, especially in IT, there is also an uptick in demand for roles such as machine-learning engineers and AI researchers. Surveys reflect that a substantial share of companies are planning to hire for these skillsets.

Productivity improvements may eventually widen to more industries, and “AI intensity” (share of roles heavily using AI) remains highest in information-technology and professional-service sectors, signaling where future employment shifts might first materialize.

The report said the current impact of AI on the labor market is limited, but the seeds of transformation are being sown. Increases in corporate AI adoption, especially among large and medium-sized firms, point toward future productivity and role changes. But for now, fears of widespread AI-induced job loss appear overstated—at least until broader, deeper integration of the technology with business processes occurs.

As companies continue to scale AI and as supporting infrastructure matures, opportunities and challenges will both be amplified, warranting close observation by policymakers, business leaders, and workers alike.

Goldman Sachs declined to comment further.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 



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Miss Universe co-owner gets bank accounts frozen as part of probe into drugs, fuel and arms trafficking

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Mexico’s anti-money laundering office has frozen the bank accounts of the Mexican co-owner of Miss Universe as part of an investigation into drugs, fuel and arms trafficking, an official said Friday.

The country’s Financial Intelligence Unit, which oversees the fight against money laundering, froze Mexican businessman Raúl Rocha Cantú’s bank accounts in Mexico, a federal official told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment on the investigation.

The action against Rocha Cantú adds to mounting controversies for the Miss Universe organization. Last week, a court in Thailand issued an arrest warrant for the Thai co-owner of the Miss Universe Organization in connection with a fraud case and this year’s competition — won by Miss Mexico Fatima Bosch — faced allegations of rigging.

The Miss Universe organization did not immediately respond to an email from The Associated Press seeking comment about the allegations against Rocha Cantú.

Mexico’s federal prosecutors said last week that Rocha Cantú has been under investigation since November 2024 for alleged organized crime activity, including drug and arms trafficking, as well as fuel theft. Last month, a federal judge issued 13 arrest warrants for some of those involved in the case, including the Mexican businessman, whose company Legacy Holding Group USA owns 50% of the Miss Universe shares.

The organization’s other 50% belongs to JKN Global Group Public Co. Ltd., a company owned by Jakkaphong “Anne” Jakrajutatip.

A Thai court last week issued an arrest warrant for Jakrajutatip who was released on bail in 2023 on the fraud case. She failed to appear as required in a Bangkok court on Nov. 25. Since she did not notify the court about her absence, she was deemed to be a flight risk, according to a statement from the Bangkok South District Court.

The court rescheduled her hearing for Dec. 26.

Rocha Cantú was also a part owner of the Casino Royale in the northern Mexican city of Monterrey, when it was attacked in 2011 by a group of gunmen who entered it, doused gasoline and set it on fire, killing 52 people.

Baltazar Saucedo Estrada, who was charged with planning the attack, was sentenced in July to 135 years in prison.



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Elon Musk’s X fined $140 million by EU for breaching digital regulations

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European Union regulators on Friday fined X, Elon Musk’s social media platform, 120 million euros ($140 million) for breaches of the bloc’s digital regulations, in a move that risks rekindling tensions with Washington over free speech.

The European Commission issued its decision following an investigation it opened two years ago into X under the 27-nation bloc’s Digital Services Act, also known as the DSA.

It’s the first time that the EU has issued a so-called non-compliance decision since rolling out the DSA. The sweeping rulebook requires platforms to take more responsibility for protecting European users and cleaning up harmful or illegal content and products on their sites, under threat of hefty fines.

The Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, said it was punishing X because of three different breaches of the DSA’s transparency requirements. The decision could rile President Donald Trump, whose administration has lashed out at digital regulations, complained that Brussels was targeting U.S. tech companies and vowed to retaliate.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted on his X account that the Commission’s fine was akin to an attack on the American people. Musk later agreed with Rubio’s sentiment.

“The European Commission’s $140 million fine isn’t just an attack on @X, it’s an attack on all American tech platforms and the American people by foreign governments,” Rubio wrote. “The days of censoring Americans online are over.”

Vice President JD Vance, posting on X ahead of the decision, accused the Commission of seeking to fine X “for not engaging in censorship.”

“The EU should be supporting free speech not attacking American companies over garbage,” he wrote.

Officials denied the rules were intended to muzzle Big Tech companies. The Commission is “not targeting anyone, not targeting any company, not targeting any jurisdictions based on their color or their country of origin,” spokesman Thomas Regnier told a regular briefing in Brussels. “Absolutely not. This is based on a process, democratic process.”

X did not respond immediately to an email request for comment.

EU regulators had already outlined their accusations in mid-2024 when they released preliminary findings of their investigation into X.

Regulators said X’s blue checkmarks broke the rules because on “deceptive design practices” and could expose users to scams and manipulation.

Before Musk acquired X, when it was previously known as Twitter, the checkmarks mirrored verification badges common on social media and were largely reserved for celebrities, politicians and other influential accounts, such as Beyonce, Pope Francis, writer Neil Gaiman and rapper Lil Nas X.

After he bought it in 2022, the site started issuing the badges to anyone who wanted to pay $8 per month.

That means X does not meaningfully verify who’s behind the account, “making it difficult for users to judge the authenticity of accounts and content they engage with,” the Commission said in its announcement.

X also fell short of the transparency requirements for its ad database, regulators said.

Platforms in the EU are required to provide a database of all the digital advertisements they have carried, with details such as who paid for them and the intended audience, to help researches detect scams, fake ads and coordinated influence campaigns. But X’s database, the Commission said, is undermined by design features and access barriers such as “excessive delays in processing.”

Regulators also said X also puts up “unnecessary barriers” for researchers trying to access public data, which stymies research into systemic risks that European users face.

“Deceiving users with blue checkmarks, obscuring information on ads and shutting out researchers have no place online in the EU. The DSA protects users,” Henna Virkkunen, the EU’s executive vice-president for tech sovereignty, security and democracy, said in a prepared statement.

The Commission also wrapped up a separate DSA case Friday involving TikTok’s ad database after the video-sharing platform promised to make changes to ensure full transparency.

___

AP Writer Lorne Cook in Brussels contributed to this report.



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Nvidia CEO says U.S. data centers take 3 years, but China ‘can build a hospital in a weekend’

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said China has an AI infrastructure advantage over the U.S., namely in construction and energy.

While the U.S. retains an edge on AI chips, he warned China can build large projects at staggering speeds.

“If you want to build a data center here in the United States from breaking ground to standing up a AI supercomputer is probably about three years,” Huang told Center for Strategic and International Studies President John Hamre in late November. “They can build a hospital in a weekend.”

The speed at which China can build infrastructure is just one of his concerns. He also worries about the countries’ comparative energy capacity to support the AI boom.

China has “twice as much energy as we have as a nation, and our economy is larger than theirs. Makes no sense to me,” Huang said.

He added that China’s energy capacity continues to grow “straight up”, while the U.S.’s remains relatively flat.

Still, Huang maintained that Nvidia is “generations ahead” of China on AI chip technology to support the demand for the tech and semiconductor manufacturing process.

But he warned against complacency on this front, adding that “anybody who thinks China can’t manufacture is missing a big idea.”

Yet Huang is hopeful about Nvidia’s future, noting President Donald Trump’s push to reshore manufacturing jobs and spur AI investments.

‘Insatiable AI demand’

Early last month, Huang made headlines by predicting China would win the AI race—a message he amended soon thereafter, saying the country was “nanoseconds behind America” in the race in a statement shared to his company’s X account.

Nvidia is just one of the big tech companies pouring billions of dollars into a data center buildout in the U.S., which experts tell Fortune could amount to over $100 billion in the next year alone.

Raul Martynek, the CEO of DataBank, a company that contracts with tech giants to construct data centers, said the average cost of a data center is $10 million to $15 million per megawatt (MW), and a typical data centers on the smaller side requires 40 MW.

“In the U.S., we think there will be 5 to 7 gigawatts brought online in the coming year to support this seemingly insatiable AI demand,” Martynek said.

This shakes out to $50 billion on the low end, and $105 billion on the high end.



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