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How Boeing is quietly betting on a ‘brilliant’ 39-year old engineer—and setting the stage for a turnaround

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As an aeronautics grad student at MIT in the 2010s, Brian Yutko was obsessed. He’d work deep into the night mining “black box” data and destination codes buried in antiquated computer languages like Fortran for obscure flight stats. He wowed his thesis advisor with his work on fuel efficiency. Among Yutko’s findings: Airlines could reduce pollution by 7% by flying planes at slightly slower speeds, and by 33% by mothballing old models sooner. But Yutko didn’t just study planes—he loved flying them. Yutko, his advisor, and fellow PhD students relished zipping up and down the East Coast on rented Cessna 170s that they would take turns piloting to conferences and blithe sojourns for picnic lunches in the country. 

Fast-forward a decade and suddenly Yutko has a much bigger fleet at his disposal. In May Boeing named Yutko, 39, chief of commercial airplanes product development, the arm tasked with incorporating engineering advances that improve today’s models, and taking a leading role in designing and bringing to market all-new aircraft at Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA), the company’s largest division. With this year’s revenues clocking at an annualized rate of around $45 billion, if measured on its own, that unit would rank around 100th on the Fortune 500.

Though Boeing’s litany of safety concerns and union turmoil have dominated the headlines for several years, behind the scenes there are glimmers that things are changing one year into new CEO Kelly Ortberg’s tenure. Ortberg secured a hard-won contract with the machinists’ union following a 54-day strike; reached a deal with the DOJ to avoid criminal prosecution for the crashes in 2018 and 2019 that killed 346 passengers and crew; won a contract initially valued at $20 billion over Lockheed to develop the Air Force’s next-gen fighter jet; and worked closely alongside the FAA to gradually raise production of the 737 Max, the bestseller whose production the regulator severely constrained since the notorious door-plug blowout over Portland early last year. He also avoided big risks by raising $21 billion in fresh capital, ensuring that Boeing harbored the cash reserves for weathering the tough times. But it’s the appointment of Yutko, though it has gone largely unnoticed, that may speak eloquently about where Boeing is headed.    

“I’m biased, but my take is that Brian’s appointment is a real indication that Boeing is returning to prioritizing engineering and product innovation,” R. John Hansman, Yutko’s PhD advisor and director of the MIT International Center for Air Transportation, told Fortune. (Boeing declined to make Yutko or other managers available for this story. Yutko, however, sent a message that read in part: “Because I’m just getting my feet wet in this new role and drinking from a firehose a bit, I’ll follow the comms team lead on this one.”) Adds Gary Gysin, the founding CEO of Wisk, where Yutko served on the board before taking the helm: “One guy won’t fix everything, but he’ll help attract more like-minded younger people who will be more aggressive on the tech front.” Several sources I spoke to said that Yutko’s leadership and technical skills could take him a long way at Boeing.

Of course, that will certainly depend on how Yutko helps Boeing navigate the flight ahead—a period in which the company is in the early stages of exploring what could be a $25 billion bet on a brand-new plane, something that the aerospace giant only does once every few decades. Legendary aerospace analyst Richard Safran summarizes the promise and peril Yutko’s facing as this: “He’s a classic MIT, somewhat brilliant guy. Who hasn’t demonstrated he knows how to make money yet.” 

Boeing at a crossroads

Boeing is at a critical juncture. The seeds of its current problems date back to the late 1990s following its acquisition of rival McDonnell Douglas. Before that giant tie-up, Boeing had boasted a culture dominated by engineering excellence that elevated product quality and safety far above profit-making. Though Boeing remained a wellspring of innovation, the McDonnell ethos took over, and was accelerated by a parade of CEOs who seemed to prioritize shareholder value above all. From 2010 to 2018, Boeing radically reduced headcount and R&D as a share of sales, and returned over 100% of its cash flow to shareholders via buybacks and dividends. Over those eight years, its stock delivered annual returns of nearly 30%, beating the likes of Apple and Microsoft

But the fatal Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines crashes in late 2018 and early 2019 exposed how far Boeing had veered from the quality obsession and production safeguards that were hallmarks of its storied past. (You can read this author’s cover story on Boeing’s descent here.) 

Now Ortberg’s plan to gradually raise the severely depressed production of its cash cow Max is showing green shoots, but to ensure dominance in the next decade, Boeing’s top chance at besting Airbus is designing and successfully commercializing a totally new and disruptive 737 successor. “Boeing’s not in a good place from a product portfolio standpoint,” says a former executive at a large Boeing supplier. “They haven’t been for four to six years. The new plane can’t be a me-too. When you’re behind, you need to be aggressive. They have to come up with something that’s a real crowd-pleaser for the airlines. And they have to develop the new plane right on schedule to restore their credibility after the delays on the 787,” the last all-new plane that arrived three years late in 2011. 

Much of this will fall to Yutko. To say it’s a tall order is an understatement, but as interviews with colleagues, peers, and friends show, he has again and again surprised those around him. His unlikely rise to the Fortune 500 began in Northeastern Pennsylvania coal country. His hometown’s the tiny village of Buck Mountain nestled near the foothills of Locust Mountain, a hikers’ favorite roamed by white-tailed deer and black bears. Decades ago, one of the biggest draws for this corner of Appalachians was its rowdy annual beer fest. This region comprising historic Schuylkill County holds the world’s largest deposits of anthracite black carbon, but the industry’s decline decimated the local economy. Since the 1930s, Schuylkill has lost around a third of its population, and its often-crumbling homes at a median of $165,000 rank among the nation’s cheapest. Less than 20 miles from Yutko’s alma mater, Mahanoy City High School—where in 2022 he delivered the keynote address to the graduating class of 49, the smallest in its history—sits a virtual ghost town where a coal seam fire has been burning for over 60 years. Brian’s ancestors migrated over a century ago from Eastern Europe to the area’s then-bustling company towns, and generations of Yutkos have worked in the coal trade.

Yutko’s dad ran a shop that changed springs for coal mining trucks, and Brian worked alongside him as a kid. “When Brian got his master’s at MIT, I invited his parents to dinner,” remembers his mentor Hansman. “It was the first time his father had ever been out of the state, and the first time his mother had left the county.”

Yutko and his two brothers were the first in the family to attend college—the younger a project engineer at a large power and metals company who also volunteers as a high school wrestling coach in the area, as does the youngest—all three honed clinches and armlocks on the mats at Mahanoy. At Penn State, where Yutko graduated in 2004, he majored in aerospace engineering and developed a love for jerry-rigging airborne vehicles from everyday materials. In a recent Reddit post, he recalled joining “a project that designs and builds a sailplane” and getting assigned to “weld out metal chromoly tube fuselage … because I knew how to weld.” Yutko didn’t mention whether he learned the metal-bending skills at the family workplace, but jested: “I’m positive my welding wouldn’t pass proper inspection.”

At MIT, Hansman demanded that his PhD candidates pursue work that wasn’t just theoretical, but would improve the way airplanes fly and operate so that the next wave would show big strides in curbing emissions and lowering noise. “You think of MIT as teaching heavy math, nerdy kinds of things,” says a fellow program member. “But Hansman was very applied and practical.” Hansman was also a super-tough taskmaster who, as this Yutko classmate avows, “didn’t suffer fools gladly” and would put his doctoral candidates through “a tear down and rebuild mill.” Glancing at a piece of research, he’d charge, “This is wrong” or “This is BS,” mainly as a test for prompting students to vigorously push back. Once the presenter on the griddle “defended their position to the death,” they could often persuade their revered leader.

For years, in addition to their Cessna-piloting adventures, Yutko joined Hansman and Yutko’s best friend, NASA astronaut and engineer Woody Hoburg, on motorcycle sojourns on their rented BMW 1200 rigs between Christmas and New Year’s to exotic corners of the globe, from the deserts of Morocco to the valleys of Peru. During COVID, Yutko and Hoburg, a former rescue climber in Yosemite, camped in Red Rock Canyon near Las Vegas to practice their technical skills deploying lines and harnesses. On foot, Yutko has braved the race to the summit of Pikes Peak, a grueling contest that scales 7,800 vertical feet.

A slim six-footer, his brown hair close-cropped, Yutko in his Wisk incarnation favored T-shirts and jeans. At work, he can be intense and demanding. “He and I are both ‘A’ types, and we had quite a few battles,” says ex–Wisk boss Gysin, who adds that Yutko “would really dig in on an issue” and relentlessly hammer home his position, a stance he learned in the Hansman crucible at MIT. “I have a number of non-consensus views on a number of topics,” Yutko admitted in a recent podcast. Yet Gysin says that despite their dustups, he and Yutko “are friends to this day.” 

According to fellow students and colleagues, Yutko’s as likable as he is doggedly determined. Marvels Hansman, “We’d go to a bar on the Moroccan coast on our motorcycle trips, and Brian would make friends with all the guys in the bar,” says Hansman. “He’s just magnetic.” 

Lishuai Li, a fellow PhD student under Hansman and now a professor at City University of Hong Kong, attests to Yutko’s gift for putting people at ease. “As an international student, I sometimes feel hesitant in social settings, so I’d sometimes be quiet. But Brian had a natural way of making everyone feel included.” Yutko is married, and he and his wife, who holds an MBA from Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business and previously worked as a White House advance aid, recently welcomed a son.

And Yutko’s funny. In interviews, he lampoons his own wonkish credentials by uncorking such quips as, “I’ll do a little systems engineering on your question.” As a PhD student, he coauthored a semi-satirical editorial that echoes 18th-century essayist Jonathan Swift’s tongue-in-cheek “A Modest Proposal.” The piece soberly calculates the dollars airlines could save if “they could provide incentives for passengers to go the restroom before getting on a flight.” The authors also get serious, extolling the fuel economies garnered by ditching such items as water bottles handed out by flight attendants, and replacing “flight bags” carrying heavy paper manuals, charts, and checklists with versions loaded on computerized tablets. The writing is so clever that, for this judge, it could have been penned by a professional pundit.

Hansman praises Yutko’s willingness to take chances when the potential payoff is big. “This is a guy who listens, who thinks things through, who assesses risk, but doesn’t have fear,” he observes.

Extra lift

After getting his PhD in 2014, Yutko split his time between MIT and Aurora Flight Sciences, an engineering firm that primarily created prototypes of unmanned, electric, and other next-gen planes, helicopters, and drones for the Department of Defense. At Aurora, he participated in a NASA design competition for a revolutionary, highly efficient commercial aircraft configuration called the D8. Boeing teams were competing on other models. Traditional aircraft design features a pressured tube for the passengers flanked by wings. But the D8 put two tubes side by side, which made the fuselage wider, enabling it to, in effect, become part of the wing and add to the lift. The design also placed the engines in the tail, which reduced turbulence from the fuselage. The D8 looked a bit like a shark, and won the moniker “Double Bubble.” Its edge: It could carry wings smaller and lighter than those of regular planes because of the extra lift provided by the reshaped fuselage. Those characteristics lowered drag big-time. The D8 was also originally conceived to fly at slightly lower than normal speeds, a key to saving fuel that Yutko had identified in his doctoral work.

Yutko tested D8 forerunners in a new wind tunnel donated to MIT by Boeing. The D8’s stupendous goal: lowering fuel consumption by 70%. The tech incorporated in the D8 is still a contender for the new wave of narrow-bodies, and the program would prove Yutko’s ticket to Boeing. 

Yutko (left) with a model of Wisk Aero’s eVTOL (electric, vertical take-off and landing) autonomous air taxi at the Farnborough Airshow in 2022.

JUSTIN TALLIS—AFP/Getty Images

Yutko had caught the eye of then–Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun, who picked the rising star for personal mentorship as part of a Boeing program where top executives nurture future leaders. By early 2023 Yutko was ready for a new challenge, which presented itself when autonomous flying-taxi startup Wisk, (founded by Google cofounder Larry Page but majority owned by Boeing) needed a new CEO. Yutko moved to Silicon Valley for the job.

The Wisk rises like a helicopter; then six of its forward rotors tilt outward, and it flies like a plane. Yutko foresaw a network of “vertiports” at airports, topping highways and mounted on rooftops ferrying passengers up to 100 miles in what he widely praised as possibly “the next big leap in aviation.” Given the resistance of pilots’ unions and traffic controllers, and skepticism from regulators, for autonomous flight, it’s unclear when or if Wisk will reach the market. Still, Yutko continued to advance autonomous technology and added AI applications to simulate flight planning and patterns. Those improvements could potentially improve safety and testing on commercial planes. 

Boeing’s next big bet

Of course, any decision on a new plane will fall to Ortberg and the Boeing board. Once they approve takeoff, the aircraft-maker typically taps two leaders to head a greenfield project, according to an executive who worked for a Boeing supplier: a program manager, and a lead project engineer. The program manager is tasked with hitting key milestones for schedule and costs, and reports to the business side. The lead project engineer is responsible for working with the supply base to optimize the plane’s design and development, and bring it to market. That person is part of the engineering team that, it appears, would work closely with Yutko as chief of commercial airplane development. “You can’t BS Brian on the engineering side,” noted one of his former colleagues.

What’s this airborne breakthrough likely to look like? The advantage to the super avant-garde models Yutko knows so well is that the airframes themselves promise tremendous gains in fuel efficiency and CO2 reductions. The D8 “Double Bubble” technology that Yutko labored on featuring the bulbous fuselage is still a leading candidate. Another potential winner is the so-called X-66, also known as the jawbreaker transonic truss-braced wing or TTBW. Conceived in-house at Boeing, and long supported by grants from NASA, the X-66 features extra-long, thin wings supported by diagonal struts, so that from the nose you’re looking at two triangles. 

In April, Boeing scrapped pursuit of an X-66 demonstrator in partnership with NASA, but pledged to keep working on thin-wing technology. It’s not clear if the TTBW or another model will prove the winner, but Yutko has expressed openness to new aircraft configurations. “It’s really an open book,” says Hansman. Yutko will be leading the evaluation of all the technical and design options, including the use of alternative fuels and new engine technologies, as well as automation. 

In October of 2024, Yutko gathered with many of Hansman’s former students to salute their beloved teacher’s 70th birthday with a series of lectures. Yutko took the stage for a presentation reviewing 210 years of aviation history. He started by recapping the first primitive, butterfly-shaped gliders, reminding the audience, “[I’m] as you all know … a future-thinker,” then spotlighted the “opportunity for new airplane shapes” and lauded the “Double Bubble … that came out of MIT” and “that I’m so passionate about.” 

Boeing watchers may similarly hope that the storied company is entering a new era, too. And Boeing finally has what it needs, a visionary engineer who can pilot this lagging colossus towards winning the big one, the contest for the aircraft of the future.



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Senate Dems’ plan to fix Obamacare premiums adds nearly $300 billion to deficit, CRFB says

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The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) is a nonpartisan watchdog that regularly estimates how much the U.S. Congress is adding to the $38 trillion national debt.

With enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies due to expire within days, some Senate Democrats are scrambling to protect millions of Americans from getting the unpleasant holiday gift of spiking health insurance premiums. The CRFB says there’s just one problem with the plan: It’s not funded.

“With the national debt as large as the economy and interest payments costing $1 trillion annually, it is absurd to suggest adding hundreds of billions more to the debt,” CRFB President Maya MacGuineas wrote in a statement on Friday afternoon.

The proposal, backed by members of the Senate Democratic caucus, would fully extend the enhanced ACA subsidies for three years, from 2026 through 2028, with no additional income limits on who can qualify. Those subsidies, originally boosted during the pandemic and later renewed, were designed to lower premiums and prevent coverage losses for middle‑ and lower‑income households purchasing insurance on the ACA exchanges.

CRFB estimated that even this three‑year extension alone would add roughly $300 billion to federal deficits over the next decade, largely because the federal government would continue to shoulder a larger share of premium costs while enrollment and subsidy amounts remain elevated. If Congress ultimately moves to make the enhanced subsidies permanent—as many advocates have urged—the total cost could swell to nearly $550 billion in additional borrowing over the next decade.

Reversing recent guardrails

MacGuineas called the Senate bill “far worse than even a debt-financed extension” as it would roll back several “program integrity” measures that were enacted as part of a 2025 reconciliation law and were intended to tighten oversight of ACA subsidies. On top of that, it would be funded by borrowing even more. “This is a bad idea made worse,” MacGuineas added.

The watchdog group’s central critique is that the new Senate plan does not attempt to offset its costs through spending cuts or new revenue and, in their view, goes beyond a simple extension by expanding the underlying subsidy structure.

The legislation would permanently repeal restrictions that eliminated subsidies for certain groups enrolling during special enrollment periods and would scrap rules requiring full repayment of excess advance subsidies and stricter verification of eligibility and tax reconciliation. The bill would also nullify portions of a 2025 federal regulation that loosened limits on the actuarial value of exchange plans and altered how subsidies are calculated, effectively reshaping how generous plans can be and how federal support is determined. CRFB warned these reversals would increase costs further while weakening safeguards designed to reduce misuse and error in the subsidy system.

MacGuineas said that any subsidy extension should be paired with broader reforms to curb health spending and reduce overall borrowing. In her view, lawmakers are missing a chance to redesign ACA support in a way that lowers premiums while also improving the long‑term budget outlook.

The debate over ACA subsidies recently contributed to a government funding standoff, and CRFB argued that the new Senate bill reflects a political compromise that prioritizes short‑term relief over long‑term fiscal responsibility.

“After a pointless government shutdown over this issue, it is beyond disappointing that this is the preferred solution to such an important issue,” MacGuineas wrote.

The off-year elections cast the government shutdown and cost-of-living arguments in a different light. Democrats made stunning gains and almost flipped a deep-red district in Tennessee as politicians from the far left and center coalesced around “affordability.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is reportedly smelling blood in the water and doubling down on the theme heading into the pivotal midterm elections of 2026. President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit Pennsylvania soon to discuss pocketbook anxieties. But he is repeating predecessor Joe Biden’s habit of dismissing inflation, despite widespread evidence to the contrary.

“We fixed inflation, and we fixed almost everything,” Trump said in a Tuesday cabinet meeting, in which he also dismissed affordability as a “hoax” pushed by Democrats.​

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle now face a politically fraught choice: allow premiums to jump sharply—including in swing states like Pennsylvania where ACA enrollees face double‑digit increases—or pass an expensive subsidy extension that would, as CRFB calculates, explode the deficit without addressing underlying health care costs.



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Netflix–Warner Bros. deal sets up $72 billion antitrust test

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Netflix Inc. has won the heated takeover battle for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Now it must convince global antitrust regulators that the deal won’t give it an illegal advantage in the streaming market. 

The $72 billion tie-up joins the world’s dominant paid streaming service with one of Hollywood’s most iconic movie studios. It would reshape the market for online video content by combining the No. 1 streaming player with the No. 4 service HBO Max and its blockbuster hits such as Game Of ThronesFriends, and the DC Universe comics characters franchise.  

That could raise red flags for global antitrust regulators over concerns that Netflix would have too much control over the streaming market. The company faces a lengthy Justice Department review and a possible US lawsuit seeking to block the deal if it doesn’t adopt some remedies to get it cleared, analysts said.

“Netflix will have an uphill climb unless it agrees to divest HBO Max as well as additional behavioral commitments — particularly on licensing content,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jennifer Rie. “The streaming overlap is significant,” she added, saying the argument that “the market should be viewed more broadly is a tough one to win.”

By choosing Netflix, Warner Bros. has jilted another bidder, Paramount Skydance Corp., a move that risks touching off a political battle in Washington. Paramount is backed by the world’s second-richest man, Larry Ellison, and his son, David Ellison, and the company has touted their longstanding close ties to President Donald Trump. Their acquisition of Paramount, which closed in August, has won public praise from Trump. 

Comcast Corp. also made a bid for Warner Bros., looking to merge it with its NBCUniversal division.

The Justice Department’s antitrust division, which would review the transaction in the US, could argue that the deal is illegal on its face because the combined market share would put Netflix well over a 30% threshold.

The White House, the Justice Department and Comcast didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. 

US lawmakers from both parties, including Republican Representative Darrell Issa and Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren have already faulted the transaction — which would create a global streaming giant with 450 million users — as harmful to consumers.

“This deal looks like an anti-monopoly nightmare,” Warren said after the Netflix announcement. Utah Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, said in a social media post earlier this week that a Warner Bros.-Netflix tie-up would raise more serious competition questions “than any transaction I’ve seen in about a decade.”

European Union regulators are also likely to subject the Netflix proposal to an intensive review amid pressure from legislators. In the UK, the deal has already drawn scrutiny before the announcement, with House of Lords member Baroness Luciana Berger pressing the government on how the transaction would impact competition and consumer prices.

The combined company could raise prices and broadly impact “culture, film, cinemas and theater releases,”said Andreas Schwab, a leading member of the European Parliament on competition issues, after the announcement.

Paramount has sought to frame the Netflix deal as a non-starter. “The simple truth is that a deal with Netflix as the buyer likely will never close, due to antitrust and regulatory challenges in the United States and in most jurisdictions abroad,” Paramount’s antitrust lawyers wrote to their counterparts at Warner Bros. on Dec. 1.

Appealing directly to Trump could help Netflix avoid intense antitrust scrutiny, New Street Research’s Blair Levin wrote in a note on Friday. Levin said it’s possible that Trump could come to see the benefit of switching from a pro-Paramount position to a pro-Netflix position. “And if he does so, we believe the DOJ will follow suit,” Levin wrote.

Netflix co-Chief Executive Officer Ted Sarandos had dinner with Trump at the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida last December, a move other CEOs made after the election in order to win over the administration. In a call with investors Friday morning, Sarandos said that he’s “highly confident in the regulatory process,” contending the deal favors consumers, workers and innovation. 

“Our plans here are to work really closely with all the appropriate governments and regulators, but really confident that we’re going to get all the necessary approvals that we need,” he said.

Netflix will likely argue to regulators that other video services such as Google’s YouTube and ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok should be included in any analysis of the market, which would dramatically shrink the company’s perceived dominance.

The US Federal Communications Commission, which regulates the transfer of broadcast-TV licenses, isn’t expected to play a role in the deal, as neither hold such licenses. Warner Bros. plans to spin off its cable TV division, which includes channels such as CNN, TBS and TNT, before the sale.

Even if antitrust reviews just focus on streaming, Netflix believes it will ultimately prevail, pointing to Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime and Walt Disney Co. as other major competitors, according to people familiar with the company’s thinking. 

Netflix is expected to argue that more than 75% of HBO Max subscribers already subscribe to Netflix, making them complementary offerings rather than competitors, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing confidential deliberations. The company is expected to make the case that reducing its content costs through owning Warner Bros., eliminating redundant back-end technology and bundling Netflix with Max will yield lower prices.



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The rise of AI reasoning models comes with a big energy tradeoff

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Nearly all leading artificial intelligence developers are focused on building AI models that mimic the way humans reason, but new research shows these cutting-edge systems can be far more energy intensive, adding to concerns about AI’s strain on power grids.

AI reasoning models used 30 times more power on average to respond to 1,000 written prompts than alternatives without this reasoning capability or which had it disabled, according to a study released Thursday. The work was carried out by the AI Energy Score project, led by Hugging Face research scientist Sasha Luccioni and Salesforce Inc. head of AI sustainability Boris Gamazaychikov.

The researchers evaluated 40 open, freely available AI models, including software from OpenAI, Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Microsoft Corp. Some models were found to have a much wider disparity in energy consumption, including one from Chinese upstart DeepSeek. A slimmed-down version of DeepSeek’s R1 model used just 50 watt hours to respond to the prompts when reasoning was turned off, or about as much power as is needed to run a 50 watt lightbulb for an hour. With the reasoning feature enabled, the same model required 7,626 watt hours to complete the tasks.

The soaring energy needs of AI have increasingly come under scrutiny. As tech companies race to build more and bigger data centers to support AI, industry watchers have raised concerns about straining power grids and raising energy costs for consumers. A Bloomberg investigation in September found that wholesale electricity prices rose as much as 267% over the past five years in areas near data centers. There are also environmental drawbacks, as Microsoft, Google and Amazon.com Inc. have previously acknowledged the data center buildout could complicate their long-term climate objectives

More than a year ago, OpenAI released its first reasoning model, called o1. Where its prior software replied almost instantly to queries, o1 spent more time computing an answer before responding. Many other AI companies have since released similar systems, with the goal of solving more complex multistep problems for fields like science, math and coding.

Though reasoning systems have quickly become the industry norm for carrying out more complicated tasks, there has been little research into their energy demands. Much of the increase in power consumption is due to reasoning models generating much more text when responding, the researchers said. 

The new report aims to better understand how AI energy needs are evolving, Luccioni said. She also hopes it helps people better understand that there are different types of AI models suited to different actions. Not every query requires tapping the most computationally intensive AI reasoning systems.

“We should be smarter about the way that we use AI,” Luccioni said. “Choosing the right model for the right task is important.”

To test the difference in power use, the researchers ran all the models on the same computer hardware. They used the same prompts for each, ranging from simple questions — such as asking which team won the Super Bowl in a particular year — to more complex math problems. They also used a software tool called CodeCarbon to track how much energy was being consumed in real time.

The results varied considerably. The researchers found one of Microsoft’s Phi 4 reasoning models used 9,462 watt hours with reasoning turned on, compared with about 18 watt hours with it off. OpenAI’s largest gpt-oss model, meanwhile, had a less stark difference. It used 8,504 watt hours with reasoning on the most computationally intensive “high” setting and 5,313 watt hours with the setting turned down to “low.” 

OpenAI, Microsoft, Google and DeepSeek did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Google released internal research in August that estimated the median text prompt for its Gemini AI service used 0.24 watt-hours of energy, roughly equal to watching TV for less than nine seconds. Google said that figure was “substantially lower than many public estimates.” 

Much of the discussion about AI power consumption has focused on large-scale facilities set up to train artificial intelligence systems. Increasingly, however, tech firms are shifting more resources to inference, or the process of running AI systems after they’ve been trained. The push toward reasoning models is a big piece of that as these systems are more reliant on inference.

Recently, some tech leaders have acknowledged that AI’s power draw needs to be reckoned with. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said the industry must earn the “social permission to consume energy” for AI data centers in a November interview. To do that, he argued tech must use AI to do good and foster broad economic growth.



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