With U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds running for Governor in 2026, who will represent Southwest Florida in Congress?

A year and a half out from the 2026 Primary, nobody has formally filed. But political consultants in the region say a host of politicians and potential self-funders have already taken steps to jump into the race in Florida’s 19th Congressional District. That includes multiple candidates who served in Congress in other areas of the country.

Many expect Madison Cawthorn, a former North Carolina Congressman who moved to Lee County after losing a 2022 Primary, to get into the race. The far-right Republican has been politically engaged in Florida politics since his arrival in the state.

There are also many who wonder if former state Rep. Bob Rommel, a Naples Republican currently filed for a Florida Senate race, leaves that contest in favor of running for Congress. Should he do so, that may mean several political allies considering a run will stay out of the race. If he files for Congress, a substantial amount already raised in a political committee could be redirected to a federal super PAC, though federal law would require Rommel to relinquish control of how it gets used.

Other well-financed figures are also likely to jump in. That could include former U.S. Rep. Chris Collins, who represented New York but resigned amid an insider trading scandal. Collins had been the first member of Congress to endorse Donald Trump for President before he was convicted on federal charges. Trump pardoned Collins in 2020, and Collins has reportedly approached local consultants about potentially running again.

Jack Lombardi, a onetime congressional candidate in Illinois, already told Florida Politics before Donalds announced that he may run for the seat if it opens up.

“Should Byron decide not to seek re-election,” he said, “it is essential that the 19th District have a proven conservative representing it in Congress and supporting the Trump agenda. I would definitely consider being that person.”

Former Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis could also jump in. The investment manager and frequent CNBC guest now lives in Southwest Florida and could bring an opportunity to self-fund.

Catalina Lauf, another former Illinois congressional candidate who worked in the Commerce Department under Trump, has also moved to Florida and been suggested as a possible candidate.

Former state Rep. Spencer Roach told Florida Politics he is considering a run for the seat as well.

“I’ve been approached by supporters and donors around the district who are looking for a strong conservative with a proven record, and I’m listening,” the North Fort Myers Republican said. “The decision on whether I enter the race will be a very deliberative process, but I am giving it serious consideration.”

Jim Schwartzel, owner of 92.5 WFSX and President of Sun Broadcasting, has also spoken to political leaders about a potential run.

A host of sitting lawmakers all could jump in, but are not making a decision immediately.

“Today is Byron’s day,” said state Rep. Jenna Persons-Mulicka, a Fort Myers Republican. “I’m focused on supporting him and ensuring we continue to build a strong conservative legacy in Florida.”

Others quickly ruled out the possibility. State Rep. Yvette Benarroch, a Naples Republican endorsed by Donalds last year, said she will not run for the seat. State Sen. Kathleen Passidomo, a former Senate President, has also ruled out a bid.

State Rep. Adam Botana, a Bonita Springs Republican, waved off the question. “I’ve got boats to wash,” he said.

Dane Eagle, a former state Representative and Department of Economic Opportunity Secretary, came in second to Donalds in a 2020 Republican Primary the last time CD 19 was an open seat. But he said he isn’t running this year. “I like my peaceful life,” he told Florida Politics.

Lee County Property Appraiser Matt Caldwell said he is watching the race but expressed no interest in running himself.

“I’m excited about what we are accomplishing in my current role as Property Appraiser,” the Republican said. “Southwest Florida absolutely deserves someone as talented as Congressman Donalds to represent us. We will see who throws their hat in the ring over the next few weeks.”

Another business owner sometimes considered a candidate for high office is Seed to Table owner Alfie Oakes, who at points has been seen as a political kingmaker in Collier County. But many suspect ongoing legal troubles will sideline Oakes from the race.

On the Democratic side, Donalds’ exit has less impact.

Howard Sapp, a Fort Myers Democrat who has previously run for Florida House, is expected to file Tuesday. Democrat Kari Lerner, former Chair of the Lee County Democratic Party, challenged Donalds in 2024. She closed the year with a little more than $5,500 still in her campaign account.

But CD 19 remains a Republican stronghold, where Donalds won more than 66% of the vote in November.

The district covers most of Lee County and the populous coastal areas of Collier County.

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Lake Mary Republican Sen. Jason Brodeur has filed a bill (SB 1060) to establish a Joint Legislative Committee on Medicaid Oversight.

The committee would be within the Office of the Auditor General and would aim to ensure that Florida’s Medicaid program operates efficiently and transparently.

In May 2024, former Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody announced that two arrests had been made stemming from a billing scheme that had defrauded the Florida Medicaid program out of more than $1.6 million. Not only did prosecutors accuse the duo of defrauding the state’s Medicaid program, but they were also accused of hiring unlicensed medical staff that resulted in the poor treatment of Medicaid patients.

Brodeur’s bill aims to evaluate all aspects of the Medicaid program, identify and recommend policies to limit spending growth, improve health outcomes, and provide regular reports and recommendations to the Legislature.

The committee would be composed of three members from the Senate and three from the House, who would each serve a term of two years on the committee. The Chair and the Vice Chair would alternate between the House and Senate and serve a term of one year.

Duties would include all aspects of the state Medicaid program, with a focus on financing, quality of care, administrative functions and operational efficiency to ensure the program is providing transparency in the provision of health care plans and providers. Brodeur hopes this will enhance access to quality health services to Medicaid recipients while providing stability to the state’s budget.

The committee would also identify and recommend policies to Medicaid spending growth while improving health outcomes for patients using the program. The committee would convene at least twice a year, or as often as deemed necessary to conduct business, and the meetings would be able to be held electronically or through a teleconference.

The Auditor General and the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) would be responsible for entering a data sharing agreement by July 1, 2025. The Auditor General would assist the committee by providing professional staff or consulting services, while the committee would have access to relevant records and would be able to compel testimony and evidence.

AHCA would be required to notify the committee of any changes to Medicaid managed care capitation rates and submit reports detailing expenditure and utilization trends. All reports submitted to the Legislature related to Medicaid would be required to also be submitted to the committee.

If passed, the bill would come into effect upon becoming law.

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