A top political prognosticator just offered a fresh assessment on Democrats’ chances of unseating U.S. Rep. Cory Mills.

Cook Political Report has moved Florida’s 7th Congressional District from its “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” column.

The shift came as the high-profile election predictions site moved 18 House races nationwide in a direction favorable to Democrats. That suggests a hostile climate for Republicans overall, two years after President Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

But Mills’ particular situation has also been impacted by a series of scandals, something the Democratic Congressional Committee (DCCC) was quick to point out.

“Voters in Florida’s 7th Congressional District deserve a representative that is focused on them and their priorities, not someone distracted by the need to litigate personal scandals on multiple fronts,” said DCCC Spokesperson Madison Andrus. “This November, Floridians are going to elect a fighter that’s actually in their corner.”

Three Democrats remain in the running to challenge Mills: Jennifer Adams, Bale Dalton and Marialana Kinter. Noah Widmann, the top fundraiser through the third quarter of 2025, recently dropped out and endorsed Dalton.

Mills, meanwhile, has faced criticism even from Republican colleagues, especially women, who have encouraged him not to seek another term.

The New Smyrna beach Republican remains under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for a number of issues, including allegations about him profiting from Defense Department contracts while serving in Congress, assaulting a girlfriend in their shared Washington apartment, threatening to publicly distribute intimate photos of an ex-girlfriend who lived with him in New Smyrna Beach, and exaggerating his military service.

Mills in 2024 won re-election to a second term, receiving 56.5% of the vote over Adams. In the same election, 55.6% of voters supported Trump for President compared to 43.1% support for Democrat Kamala Harris, according to MCI Maps. More than 54.7% of voters in the district supported U.S. Sen. Rick Scott’s re-election.

Notably, the lines for CD 7 could soon shift, with GOP leaders in Florida promising redistricting ahead of the Midterms.

News that U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn will retire after this year has fueled speculation about who may enter the race. But three Democrats have been running for months, collectively raising more than a quarter million dollars to take on the incumbent.

Yen Bailey, who challenged Dunn in 2024, was preparing for a rematch. But the race also drew in foreign aid professional Amanda Maria Green and tech entrepreneur Nic Zateslo. All suggested in online posts that Dunn’s motivation for retirement may have been a sense that the 2026 Midterms will prove especially hostile to Republicans.

Of course, the prospect of an open seat has drawn new interest in the race. Former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, a Tallahassee Democrat, confirmed to Florida Politics she is thinking about a run. And many expect interest from former U.S. Rep. Al Lawson, a Tallahassee Democrat who lost to Dunn in 2022, and former state Sen. Loranne Ausley, a Tallahassee Democrat unseated the same year.

But the candidates already in the running have a jump on organizing and fundraising, even if they don’t have as much experience on the trail.

Bailey, a Tallahassee lawyer, won just 38.3% of the vote against Dunn in the last election cycle. That election proved to be a good year for Republicans, with 58.5% of voters in the district voting for Donald Trump for President and 60% backing U.S. Sen. Rick Scott’s re-election.

But she welcomed the retirement news, declaring “Dunn is done” in a post on X.

“This district has a genuine chance at real representation that shows up, listens and actually works for the people,” she said in a video message. “We also know that the Republican Party is a well-oiled machine. The rumors are already swirling about who they’re going to run next, and whoever it is, they are going to be loyal to Trump and do exactly what he tells them to.”

Through the end of September, Bailey raised more than $102,000, including more than $88,000 in individual contributions. The total also includes a $13,000 candidate loan.

But Zateslo reported more than $120,000 in fundraising, including about $18,000 in self-funding. He has worked at a number of political tech companies, including working as chief operating officer for Votivate, a technology project launched by the Working Families Party and now used by Democrats and progressive groups.

After Dunn announced he would not seek re-election, Zateslo issued a statement saying Democrats need to mobilize immediately.

“For those of us who call North Florida home, this is an important moment to take stock of what has worked, what has not, and what kind of leadership we need going forward,” he said.

“l am an Eagle Scout, an entrepreneur, a husband and a father of two young boys who grew up right here in North Florida. I believe we need leadership grounded in integrity, real-world experience, and a willingness to do the work, not in career ambition or the same old political playbook.”

Green filed for the office in August and has since raised about $42,000 for a run, all through outside donations. She worked nine years for Chemonics International, a top contractor for the U.S. Agency for International Development before its dismantling under Trump.

She has been campaigning while pregnant for months, and had a child days before Dunn’s announcement. But she jumped online at the news to post a statement on the development.

“Thank you, Neal Dunn, for finally recognizing that another run for this seat would be a disservice to our community. After five terms of absentee leadership, we finally have an open seat and a real chance to move forward,” she said.

“Florida’s District 2 has been asking for more, and for better, for a long time: better communication, more presence, real accountability, and true representation. Today is proof that persistence and pressure work. To my neighbors in North Florida — our work is far from over. We deserve better, and I will demand better as your representative. With your support, we can fight for a better and stronger future for our families, together.”

The Naples Better Government Committee has announced endorsements for the upcoming Naples City Council election, backing four candidates after a full day of interviews and deliberations.

The committee is endorsing Ted Blankenship, incumbent Ray Christman, John Krol and Scott Schultz.

Although three Council seats are up for election this cycle, the committee said it opted to recommend four candidates due to what it described as the overall strength and depth of the field. The group did not endorse the other four candidates: Dan Barone, John Langley, Sally Petersen and Penny Taylor.

According to the committee, members conducted one-on-one interviews with all eight candidates over a six-hour period, beginning in the morning and concluding midafternoon. Following the interviews, committee members spent nearly an hour in closed-door discussion evaluating each candidate’s leadership ability, experience, vision for the city and commitment to Naples.

The Feb. 3 election will help shape the seven-member Naples City Council, which consists of a Mayor and six Council members elected at large on a nonpartisan basis. Council members and the Mayor serve four-year terms and are limited to two consecutive terms under the city charter.

The Naples Better Government Committee describes itself as a long-standing civic organization that has conducted candidate evaluations and issued nonpartisan recommendations to voters for decades. The group’s executive board and membership include individuals with backgrounds in business, real estate, law and civic leadership, and members represent both major political parties.

The committee encouraged Naples residents to remain engaged and informed, and actively participate ahead of the municipal election.

“These endorsements reflect our mission to promote transparent, accountable, and effective local government,” Committee President Scott J. Lepore said in a statement. “While we recognize the strengths of every candidate we interviewed, we believe these four individuals are best positioned to serve Naples with integrity, experience, and vision.”