Hilary Holley dominates HD 51 Special Election, will replace Josie Tomkow

Agriculture professional Hilary Holley, a Republican, has defeated Democratic opponent Edwin Pérez in the Special Election for House District 51, denying Democrats a flip they had hoped for in a Midterm year.

With all but two precincts reporting, Holley dominated her opponent with nearly 55% of the vote. She will replace Republican Rep. Josie Tomkow, who was facing term limits.

HD 51 includes much of Polk County, including Polk City, Davenport, Haines City, Lake Alfred and Auburndale.

With Midterm Election year cycles typically favoring the party out of power in the White House, and with Republican President Donald Trump experiencing historically low approval ratings, Democrats had hoped to flip the district by capitalizing on frustration and economic pain as affordability issues continue to dominate mainstream sentiment.

THIS: But even with an overperformance compared to the district’s last election — Tomkow won her most recent re-election, in 2024, with nearly 57% of the vote — the GOP advantage in HD 51 proved too large to overcome entirely.

OR THIS: Democrats had hoped to at least overperform in the district — Tomkow won her most recent re-election, in 2024, with nearly 57% of the vote — but failed to even reach that bar, sending a potentially chilling message to the party ahead of broader voting in November.

Nearly 34% of the electorate is registered to the GOP, compared to just 31% who are registered Democrats. Nearly 32% of the district is not affiliated with a political party, according to the most recent L2 voter data.

And Holley had both a fundraising advantage and more institutional support.

She raised more than $122,000 for her campaign, as of March 19, with another nearly $134,000 realized through in-kind contributions, from the House Republicans’ campaign arm and the Republican Party of Florida.

Pérez, meanwhile, had raised just over $13,000, added a $2,000 loan, while enjoying a mere fraction of in-kind support as his opponent, at just under $1,800.

Holley landed endorsements from a number of high-profile Florida Republicans, including former Sen. Denise Grimsley, whom Holley previously worked for as a legislative aide, as well as from Tomkow, whom she will now replace. Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson and former Rep. Neil Combee also backed Holley.

Holley is the Executive Director for the Florida FFA Foundation, which she joined in 2021. Also known as Future Farmers of America, Holley oversees the Florida chapter’s strategic initiatives, fundraising efforts and outreach programs supporting more than 65,000 Florida FFA members.

Holley previously worked as a public servant and in agricultural education, serving as a legislative aide to Grimsley, and as the Education Coordinator for former Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. She also formerly served as the West Central Florida Regional Director for External Affairs for former Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, who is now serving in Congress.

Holley earned her undergraduate degree in agricultural education and communication from the University of Florida, specializing in communication and leadership development. She lives on a family ranch in Polk City with her husband and two children, where they care for cattle.

Pérez is a Haines City community advocate who ran on a campaign focused on solutions to rising insurance costs, affordability issues and a looming Polk County school district funding gap — currently a $2.5 million shortfall that officials warn could grow tenfold or more.

Neither Holley nor Pérez faced a Primary opponent.