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Hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones says 2025 is ‘so much more potentially explosive than 1999’ because of the way bull markets always end

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Hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, founder and CIO of Tudor Investment Corporation, has raised alarms about the state of financial markets in 2025, drawing pointed comparisons to the explosive tech-driven boom of 1999, while clarifying that today’s environment could be “so much more potentially explosive.” The reason why has to do with what the market veteran knows about how bull markets always play out.

Speaking to Andrew Ross Sorkin of The New York Times‘ DealBook on CNBC’s Squawk Box ahead of the upcoming Robin Hood Foundation investor conference, Jones described today’s investment climate as uncannily similar to the one that preceded the 2000 dot-com bust.

“It feels exactly like 1999,” he said, implying that the market was acting like the famous Prince song with the lyrics: “Party Like It’s 1999.” He urged investors to position themselves like it’s October 1999, when the Nasdaq doubled in a matter of months before collapsing, a pattern Jones sees as increasingly plausible today. The difference is that this could be even worse than the dot-com bust, he said.

Jones told Sorkin his concerns had to do with investor behavior in every bull market, specifically at the end, when the cliff is nearing and nobody is sure where it is.

The stampede

Jones underscored that in every bull market, the “greatest price appreciation is always the 12 months preceding the top,” like what happened after October 1999. For investors, he said, the challenge is timing: “If you don’t play it, you’re missing out on the juice. If you do play it, you … have to have really happy feet because there will be a really, really bad end to it,” he said, seeming to refer to the American football phrase for when a quarterback is antsy and tiptoeing around the quarterback, rather than standing their ground.

“If anything, now is so much more potentially explosive than 1999,” Tudor Jones argued, citing the backdrop of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. He noted the Fed is set up for several rate cuts, with monetary policy taking the economy to a real interest rate of zero, meaning incentives to invest and spend given such a low cost of capital. In terms of fiscal policy, the Congress had a budget surplus in 1999 and today it has a 6% budget deficit. “That fiscal/monetary combination is a brew that we haven’t seen since, I guess the postwar period, early ’50s, something like that,” he said. “And that was crazy times, right? Coming out of the war.”

Still, Jones insisted he wasn’t calling a bubble or predicting a crash.

“I’m not suggesting that the train is going to crash,” he clarified. “I’m suggesting that we’re in a period that’s conducive for massive price appreciation in a variety of assets.”

The ‘Boldly Go’ Era: Fiscal Recklessness and AI

Where Jones did see a bubble was in sovereign debt, labeling government bonds the “biggest bubble,” with massive global deficits staved off, for now, by an ongoing easing cycle and anticipatory flows into fixed income.

“We’re kind of boldly going where no man has ever gone before,” he said, borrowing a Star Trek reference to capture the unprecedented mix of easy money and ballooning sovereign obligations. He foresees a reckoning when the current cycle of rate cuts ends and “all that demand has been pushed forward.”

When asked about the “circularity” of financing in the AI space, with Nvidia, OpenAI, AMD, Oracle, [hotlink]Microsoft,[/hotlink] and others all having somewhat interwoven data-center deals with each other, Jones agreed. “The circularity makes me nervous, I would say.” But he added that in broad terms, the way he thinks of it is the markets are mostly concerned about inflation, and gold is a big winner (the precious metal in fact has continually set record highs in 2025, nearing $4,000 an ounce as of Monday). Jones did not mention the company Nvidia throughout his interview.

Jones also zoomed out for a minute to talk about the race for the fourth quarter.

“The race, realistically, is certainly to the end of the year, because that’s when everyone marks institutionally, and then you have to figure out what’s going to go on in next year,” he said.

These remarks echoed a separate interview given to Fortune by Bank of America Research’s senior analyst Vivek Arya.

“I think we are at that point of the year and this isn’t just specific to [2025], we have seen this in prior years right around this time where people get justifiably very nervous about what is going to be the amount of spending next year,” Arya said.

As soon as the new year starts, Arya added, “people get comfortable with spending and then it starts to get back to fundamentals again.” He added that there’s a “pecularity” about the fourth-quarter season “where people naturally get nervous.” Fortune has separately reported on Owen Lamont’s “panic season” and “harvest time” thesis, which is that markets suffer from too many traders going on vacation between August and October, a legacy that dates back to America’s agricultural roots and how markets functioned around the harvesting of certain crops.

For now, Jones told CNBC, the music is still playing. But the warning is clear: “History rhymes a lot.” For investors, 2025 could be a year defined by explosive gains—and the risk that the end of the party arrives sooner, and more violently, than most expect. He added he’s not certain whether 1999 will be entirely replaced, “but I think all the ingredients are in place, and certainly from a trading standpoint … it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck. It’s probably not a chicken, right?”

Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.



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Hegseth likens strikes on alleged drug boats to post-9/11 war on terror

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Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defended strikes on alleged drug cartel boats during remarks Saturday at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, saying President Donald Trump has the power to take military action “as he sees fit” to defend the nation.

Hegseth dismissed criticism of the strikes, which have killed more than 80 people and now face intense scrutiny over concerns that they violated international law. Saying the strikes are justified to protect Americans, Hegseth likened the fight to the war on terror following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.

“If you’re working for a designated terrorist organization and you bring drugs to this country in a boat, we will find you and we will sink you. Let there be no doubt about it,” Hegseth said during his keynote address at the Reagan National Defense Forum. “President Trump can and will take decisive military action as he sees fit to defend our nation’s interests. Let no country on earth doubt that for a moment.”

The most recent strike brings the death toll of the campaign to at least 87 people. Lawmakers have sought more answers about the attacks and their legal justification, and whether U.S. forces were ordered to launch a follow-up strike following a September attack even after the Pentagon knew of survivors.

Though Hegseth compared the alleged drug smugglers to Al-Qaida terrorists, experts have noted significant differences between the two foes and the efforts to combat them.

Hegseth’s remarks came after the Trump administration released its new national security strategy, one that paints European allies as weak and aims to reassert America’s dominance in the Western Hemisphere.

During the speech, Hegseth also discussed the need to check China’s rise through strength instead of conflict. He repeated Trump’s vow to resume nuclear testing on an equal basis as China and Russia — a goal that has alarmed many nuclear arms experts. China and Russia haven’t conducted explosive tests in decades, though the Kremlin said it would follow the U.S. if Trump restarted tests.

The speech was delivered at the Reagan National Defense Forum at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute in California, an event which brings together top national security experts from around the country. Hegseth used the visit to argue that Trump is Reagan’s “true and rightful heir” when it comes to muscular foreign policy.

By contrast, Hegseth criticized Republican leaders in the years since Reagan for supporting wars in the Middle East and democracy-building efforts that didn’t work. He also blasted those who have argued that climate change poses serious challenges to military readiness.

“The war department will not be distracted by democracy building, interventionism, undefined wars, regime change, climate change, woke moralizing and feckless nation building,” he said.



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US debt crisis: Most likely fix is severe austerity triggered by a fiscal calamity

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One way or another, U.S. debt will stop expanding unsustainably, but the most likely outcome is also among the most painful, according to Jeffrey Frankel, a Harvard professor and former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers.

Publicly held debt is already at 99% of GDP and is on track to hit 107% by 2029, breaking the record set after the end of World War II. Debt service alone is more than $11 billion a week, or 15% of federal spending in the current fiscal year.

In a Project Syndicate op-ed last week, Frankel went down the list of possible debt solutions: faster economic growth, lower interest rates, default, inflation, financial repression, and fiscal austerity. 

While faster growth is the most appealing option, it’s not coming to the rescue due to the shrinking labor force, he said. AI will boost productivity, but not as much as would be needed to rein in U.S. debt.

Frankel also said the previous era of low rates was a historic anomaly that’s not coming back, and default isn’t plausible given already-growing doubts about Treasury bonds as a safe asset, especially after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff shocker.

Relying on inflation to shrink the real value of U.S. debt would be just as bad as a default, and financial repression would require the federal government to essentially force banks to buy bonds with artificially low yields, he explained.

“There is one possibility left: severe fiscal austerity,” Frankel added.

How severe? A sustainable U.S. debt trajectory would entail elimination of nearly all defense spending or almost all non-defense discretionary outlays, he estimated.

For the foreseeable future, Democrats are unlikely to slash top programs, while Republicans are likely to use any fiscal breathing room to push for more tax cuts, Frankel said.

“Eventually, in the unforeseeable future, austerity may be the most likely of the six possible outcomes,” he warned. “Unfortunately, it will probably come only after a severe fiscal crisis. The longer it takes for that reckoning to arrive, the more radical the adjustment will need to be.”

The austerity forecast echoes an earlier note from Oxford Economics, which said the expected insolvency of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds by 2034 will serve as a catalyst for fiscal reform.

In Oxford’s view, lawmakers will seek to prevent a fiscal crisis in the form of a precipitous drop in demand for Treasury bonds, sending rates soaring.

But that’s only after lawmakers try to take the more politically expedient path by allowing Social Security and Medicare to tap general revenue that funds other parts of the federal government.

“However, unfavorable fiscal news of this sort could trigger a negative reaction in the US bond market, which would view this as a capitulation on one of the last major political openings for reforms,” Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote. “A sharp upward repricing of the term premium for longer-dated bonds could force Congress back into a reform mindset.”



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The $124 trillion Great Wealth Transfer is intensifying as inheritance jumps to a new record

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Nearly $300 billion was inherited this year as the Great Wealth Transfer picks up speed, showering family members with immense windfalls.

According to the latest UBS Billionaire Ambitions Report, 91 heirs inherited a record-high $297.8 billion in 2025, up 36% from a year ago despite fewer inheritors.

“These heirs are proof of a multi-year wealth transfer that’s intensifying,” Benjamin Cavalli, head of Strategic Clients & Global Connectivity at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in the report.

Western Europe led the way with 48 individuals inheriting $149.5 billion. That includes 15 members of two “German pharmaceutical families,” with the youngest just 19 years old and the oldest at 94.

Meanwhile, 18 heirs in North America got $86.5 billion, and 11 in South East Asia received $24.7 billion, UBS said.

This year’s wealth transfer lifted the number of multi-generational billionaires to 860, who have total assets of $4.7 trillion, up from 805 with $4.2 trillion in 2024.

Wealth management firm Cerulli Associates estimated last year that $124 trillion worldwide will be handed over through 2048, dubbing it the Great Wealth Transfer. More than half of that amount will come from high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth people.

Among billionaires, UBS expects they will likely transfer about $6.9 trillion by 2040, with at least $5.9 trillion of that being passed to children, either directly or indirectly.

While the Great Wealth Transfer appears to be accelerating, it may not turn into a sudden flood. Tim Gerend, CEO of financial planning giant Northwestern Mutual, told Fortune’s Amanda Gerut recently that it will unfold more gradually and with greater complexity

“I think the wealth transfer isn’t going to be just a big bang,” he said. “It’s not like, we just passed peak age 65 and now all the money is going to move.”

Of course, millennials and Gen Zers with rich relatives aren’t the only ones who sat to reap billions. More entrepreneurs also joined the ranks of the super rich.

In 2025, 196 self-made billionaires were newly minted with total wealth of $386.5 billion. That trails only the record year of 2021 and is up from last year, which saw 161 self-made individuals with assets of $305.6 billion.

But despite the hype over the AI boom and startups with astronomical valuations, some of the new U.S. billionaires come from a range of industries.

UBS highlighted Ben Lamm, cofounder of genetics and bioscience company Colossal; Michael Dorrell, cofounder and CEO of infrastructure investment firm Stonepeak; as well as Bob Pender and Mike Sabel, cofounders of LNG exporter Venture Global.

“A fresh generation of billionaires is steadily emerging,” UBS said. “In a highly uncertain time for geopolitics and economics, entrepreneurs are innovating at scale across a range of sectors and markets.”



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