Enjoy your Fed interest rate cut today—it may be the last one for a while. There is a 90% certainty that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will announce a 0.25% cut to the base rate this afternoon, bringing it down to the 3.5% level, according to speculators on the CME FedWatch Fed funds futures index. But after that, the FedWatch index is indicating no certainty for any further cuts in 2026.

Today’s cut is priced in at level of certainty approaching 90%. But here are what the levels of certainty for keeping the rate at 3.5% look like for 2026, per FedWatch:

A new report shared exclusively with Fortune by the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) – Minority, a congressional standing committee dating back to 1946 responsible for documenting the economic conditions of the U.S., details how a sharp drop in Canadian tourism is hitting every U.S. state along the northern border. The findings come as President Trump has proposed annexing Canada, imposed several rounds of tariffs on Canadian goods, and repeatedly broken off trade talks with Ottawa, contributing to a chill in cross-border travel and spending.

From January to October 2025, the number of passenger vehicles crossing the U.S.-Canada border fell by nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2024, according to the JEC analysis, which draws on U.S. Customs and Border Protection travel statistics. In some border states, the decline reached 27%, a shift that local tourism agencies say is showing up in fewer tourists, more hotel vacancies, and weaker sales.

“Going back for generations, Canadians have visited New Hampshire and many other states along the U.S.-Canada border to see family or friends, stay in our hotels, share a meal at our restaurants, and shop at our stores,” said U.S. Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH), Ranking Member of the Joint Economic Committee. “However, in the wake of President Trump’s reckless tariffs and needless provocations, fewer and fewer Canadians are making trips to the United States, putting many American businesses in jeopardy and straining the close ties that bind our two nations.”

Canadians have historically been among the most important international visitors to the U.S., both in sheer numbers and in spending. Analysts and tourism officials note that rising prices, a weaker Canadian dollar, and heightened political tensions have nudged many travelers to choose domestic trips within Canada or alternative international destinations instead. For U.S. border communities, that shift is being felt in real time.​

“These are more than numbers; they represent missed revenue for local businesses, reduced hotel demand, and fewer dollars supporting jobs and investment in our community,” said Shirley Hughes, president and CEO of Visit Fargo-Moorhead in Fargo, North Dakota, and Moorhead, Minnesota.

In northern New Hampshire, the absence of Canadian license plates is especially stark. “Being only eight miles from the border, normally Canadians make up anywhere from 15-25% of visitors. Now, I can probably count the number of Canadian visitors on one hand. I’m just trying to plug along and keep my nose above the waterline,” said Elizabeth Guerin, owner of the Fiddleheads gift shop in Colebrook, New Hampshire.

The impact stretches beyond retail and lodging into wineries and attractions that rely on cross-border regulars.

“The drop in visits from Canadian tourists has had a noticeable impact on our bottom line. With Canadians making up about 10% of our business, fewer cross-border travelers mean fewer tastings, tours, and wine sales — a ripple effect that touches our entire operation, underscoring how important cross-border tourism is to our business model,” said Scott Osborn, president and co-owner of Fox Run Vineyards in Penn Yan, New York.

Some operators worry the damage will outlast any eventual thaw in U.S.–Canada trade relations, as Canadian travelers form new habits elsewhere.

“This is long-lasting damage to a relationship and emotional damage takes time to heal. While people aren’t visiting Vermont, they’ll be finding new places to visit, making new memories, building new family traditions, and we will not recapture all of that,” said Christa Bowdish, owner of the Old Stagecoach Inn in Waterbury, Vermont.

On the West Coast, festival organizers are also feeling the pinch.

“Since March of this year, we have not only seen Canadian traffic drop drastically, but we have also seen a drop in our number of attendees at our festival this year in late September. We knew that after March, we could not rely on our Canadian business because of fear at the border and lack of understanding of what is happening with tariffs and Canada drawing a strong line of promoting Canada first,” said Kevin Coleman, executive director of SeaFeast in Bellingham, Washington.

For businesses up and down the northern border, the question now is not just when Canadians will return in force, but how much of that lost business can ever be won back.

For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

Of course, the potential of having to deal with an activist investor’s campaign goes with the territory of being a CEO, especially at a company that has been struggling. But Super’s saga is a reminder that women CEOs remain much likelier than their male counterparts to be targeted by activist investors.

This year, according to a report last week by the Conference Board, women have made up 8% of the CEOs in the Russell 3000 index but accounted for 15% of activist campaigns specifically targeting chief executives. Other women to have recently confronted activists: Cracker Barrel’s Julie Masino, who survived a campaign, and Vail Resorts’ Kirsten Lynch, who did not. 

What makes the Conference Board report especially frustrating is that it adds more proof points to an old, seemingly intractable trend.

In 2015, the New York Times’ DealBook pondered “Do Activist Investors Target Female CEOs?” while Fortune’s Pattie Sellers asked “Does Nelson Peltz have a problem with women?” In 2017, Harvard Law School found that women CEOs had almost a 50% higher probability than men of becoming the target of shareholder activism.

Why? One reason, the Conference Board theorized, is rooted in a stereotype that women are more cooperative. It’s also conceivable that the trend reflects the glass cliff phenomenon in which women often take the helm of companies in decline. But there is almost certainly some bias at play. The Conference Board research showed that women targeted by activists face the same odds of being canned whether they turn things around or not, while male CEOs are less likely to be ousted when results improve.

Some of the most prominent women chief executives ever have tangled with activists: PepsiCo’s ex-CEO Indra Nooyi, ex-Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer, ex-DuPont CEO Ellen Kullman, ex-Mondelez CEO Irene Rosenfeld, ex-HP CEO Meg Whitman, and Mary Barra, still at GM. Michelle Gass, now thriving as CEO of Levi Strauss & Co, dealt with not one but three activist campaigns as she tried to fix Kohl’s.

Everyone should be held accountable when their company is failing or on a bad path. But it is worth wondering what this extra hurdle women CEOs face is costing us. Activist campaigns are bruising to the company but also to a CEO’s reputation. Does this mean boards might be more likely to avoid naming a woman to lower the odds of an activist campaign, or that fewer women will throw their hat in the ring?

Either way, it seems the phenomenon could needlessly be costing corporate America some much needed talent.—Phil Wahba

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

Top news

Fed watch

All eyes will be on the Fed meeting today even though an interest rate cut is all but certain. Instead, investors will focus on Chair Jerome Powell’s tone and whether he characterizes Fed policy as “in a good place;” doing so would imply that a January cut is unlikely. 

Fed chair watch 

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has narrowed down the candidates to replace Powell as Fed chair. The frontrunner is National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, but to clinch the job he’ll reportedly have to outshine three other contenders in the final round of interviews, suggesting he’s not a shoo-in for the job. 

Trump’s affordability tour

In his first in a series of speeches about “affordability,” President Trump mocked the term and insisted that Americans are doing better than ever. In reality, U.S. inflation is close to 3%, about where it was when Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden left office. 

Miami’s mayoral race

As Trump railed against affordability, Eileen Higgins, a Democrat, defeated Trump’s favored candidate in Miami’s mayoral race with a campaign focused in part on affordable housing. She’s the first Democrat to occupy Miami’s City Hall in three decades (and the first-ever woman), giving Democrats another jolt of momentum ahead of the 2026 midterms. 

Taiwan’s chip action

Taiwan is invoking a national security law to protect the trade secrets of its homegrown chipmaker TSMC and has used it to indict a TSMC supplier for allegedly letting a former employee steal details about TSMC’s top chips. 

Layoffs hit 1.1 million

Recruitment firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas has calculated the number of layoffs so far this year at 1.1 million, the sixth time since 1993 that layoffs have been that high. Technology was the hardest hit sector with 150,000 layoffs.

Americans ‘living on the financial edge’

Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi told Fortunethat many Americans are “already living on the financial edge,” and that a drop in their spending could lead to a recession. If layoffs increase, then Zandi estimates that a “jobs recession” is certain. 

Sam Altman worries about ‘rate of change’

During an appearance on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman admitted that he’s worried about “the rate of change that’s happening in the world right now.” He added that the “rate at which jobs will change over may be pretty fast,” with hopes that “much better jobs” will follow. 

The markets

S&P 500 futures were up 0.05% this morning. The last session closed down 0.09%. STOXX Europe 600 was down 0.19% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.14% in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.1%. China’s CSI 300 was down 0.14%. The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.21%. India’s NIFTY 50 is down 0.32%. Bitcoin is up at $93K.

Around the watercooler

New contract shows Palantir is working on a tech platform for another federal agency that works with ICE by Jessica Mathews

Jamie Dimon taps Jeff Bezos, Michael Dell, and Ford CEO Jim Farley to advise JPMorgan’s $1.5 trillion national security initiative by Nino Paoli

Trump’s $12 billion farmer bailout is a ‘Band-Aid on a bigger wound’ the American agriculture industry is still reeling from by Sasha Rogelberg

Exelon CEO: The ‘warning lights are on’ for U.S. electric grid resilience and utility prices amid AI demand surge by Jordan Blum

CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams, Claire Zillman and Lee Clifford.