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Google, the sleeping giant in global AI race, now ‘fully awake’

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Since the launch of ChatGPT three years ago, analysts and technologists — even a Google engineer and the company’s former chief executive — have declared Google behind in the high-stakes race to develop artificial intelligence.

Not anymore.

The internet giant has released new AI software and struck deals, such as a chip tie-up with Anthropic PBC, that have reassured investors the company won’t easily lose to ChatGPT creator OpenAI and other rivals. Google’s newest multi-purpose model, Gemini 3, won immediate praise for its capabilities in reasoning and coding, as well as niche tasks that have tripped up AI chatbots. Google’s cloud business, once an also-ran, is growing steadily, thanks in part to the global rush to develop AI services and demand for compute.

And there are signs of rising demand for Google’s specialized AI chips, one of the few viable alternatives to Nvidia Corp.’s dominant gear. A report on Monday that Meta Platforms Inc. is in talks to use Google’s chips sent shares of its parent Alphabet Inc. soaring. The stock has added nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization since mid-October, helped by Warren Buffett taking a $4.9 billion stake during the third quarter and broader Wall Street enthusiasm for its AI efforts.

Google owner Alphabet Inc.’s shares rose as much as 3.22% in New York on Tuesday. The company is on track to hit a $4 trillion market capitalization for the first time.

SoftBank Group, one of OpenAI’s biggest backers, fell to a two-month low on Tuesday on worries about the competition from Google’s Gemini. Nvidia shares fell as much as 5.51% on Tuesday, erasing $243 billion in market value.

“Google has arguably always been the dark horse in this AI race,” said Neil Shah, analyst and cofounder at Counterpoint Research. It’s “a sleeping giant that is now fully awake.”

For years, Google executives have argued that deep, costly research would help the company fend off rivals, defend its turf as the leading search engine and invent the computing platforms of tomorrow. Then ChatGPT came along, presenting the first real threat to Google search in years, even though Google pioneered the tech underpinning OpenAI’s chatbot. Still, Google has plenty of resources that OpenAI doesn’t: a corpus of ready data to train and refine AI models; flowing profits; and its own computing infrastructure. 

“We’ve taken a full, deep, full-stack approach to AI,” Sundar Pichai, chief executive officer for Google and Alphabet, told investors last quarter. “And that really plays out.”

Any concerns that Google might be held back by regulators are dying away. The company recently avoided the most severe outcome from a US anti-monopoly case — a breakup of its business — in part because of the perceived threat from AI newcomers. And the search giant has shown some progress in the longtime effort to diversify beyond its core business. Waymo, Alphabet’s driverless car unit, is coming to several new cities and just added freeway driving to its taxi service, a feat made possible by the company’s enormous research and investment.

Some of Google’s edge comes from its economics. It’s one of the few companies that produces what the industry calls the full stack in computing. Google makes the AI apps people use, like its popular Nano Banana image generator, as well as the software models, the cloud computing architecture and the chips underneath. The company also has a data goldmine for constructing AI models from its search index, Android phones and YouTube — data that Google often keeps for itself. That means, in theory, Google has more control over the technical direction of AI products and doesn’t necessarily have to pay suppliers, unlike OpenAI.

Several tech companies, including Microsoft Corp. and OpenAI, have plotted ways to develop their own semiconductors or forge ties that make them less reliant on Nvidia’s bestsellers. For years, Google was effectively its own sole customer for its homegrown processors, called tensor processing units, or TPUs, which the company first designed more than a decade ago to speed up the generation of search results and has since adapted to handle complex AI tasks. That’s changing. AI startup Anthropic said in October said it would use as many as 1 million Google TPUs in a deal worth tens of billions of dollars.

On Monday, tech publication the Information reported that Meta planned to use Google’s chips in its data centers in 2027. Google declined to address the specific plans, but said that its cloud business is “accelerating demand” for both its custom TPUs and Nvidia’s graphics processing units. “We are committed to supporting both, as we have for years,” a spokesperson wrote in a statement.

Meta declined to comment on the report on Monday night.

“We’re delighted by Google’s success,” a spokesperson for Nvidia said in a statement Tuesday. “They’ve made great advances in AI, and we continue to supply to Google.” The spokesperson added: “Nvidia is a generation ahead of the industry – it’s the only platform that runs every AI model and does it everywhere computing is done.”

Analysts read the Meta news as a signal of Google’s success. “Many others have failed in their quest to build custom chips, but Google can clearly add another string to its bow here,” Ben Barringer, head of technology research for Quilter Cheviot, wrote in an email.

Google has taken risks to get here. In early 2023, Google consolidated its AI efforts under Demis Hassabis, the leader of its London AI lab DeepMind. The reshuffle had some bumps, most notably a botched rollout of an image-generation product. For several years, DeepMind pursued research in areas like protein-folding that led to new commercial strategies (and a Nobel prize) but contributed little to Google’s bottom line. Under the reorganization, the AI unit is focused almost squarely on foundational models that keep pace with OpenAI, Microsoft and others.

Hassabis, a renowned computer scientist, has helped retain key AI engineers despite multimillion-dollar offers from rivals. His boss, Pichai, has been willing to splurge on talent.

Gemini 3 Pro has risen to the top of closely watched AI leaderboards on LMArena and Humanity’s Last Exam. Andrej Karpathy, a founding member of OpenAI, said it’s “clearly a tier 1 LLM,” referring to large language models. Google pitched the model as one that can solve complex science and math problems, and address nagging issues — such as generating images and overlaid text with incorrect spelling — that might deter enterprise customers from adopting AI services more widely.

Consumer interest is harder to gauge. Google said last week that 650 million people use its Gemini app. OpenAI recently said ChatGPT hit 800 million weekly users. As of October, Gemini’s app had 73 million monthly downloads, well shy of ChatGPT’s 93 million monthly downloads, according to research firm Sensor Tower.

Google is an advertising behemoth, but it has historically struggled to find other commercial models. Its cloud business reported third-quarter revenue of $15.2 billion, up 34% from the prior year. Still, that remains in third-place behind Microsoft and Amazon Web Services, which posted more than double Google’s cloud sales in the most recent quarter. Counterpoint Research’s Shah said Google’s AI adoption with enterprises lags Microsoft and Anthropic.

Meanwhile, OpenAI is targeting profits by selling a premium version of ChatGPT and adjacent software to companies. It’s cutting deals with chipmakers from Broadcom Inc. to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. to Nvidia to support its AI ambitions.

Google’s TPUs are mostly attractive to a handful of companies with big computing bills, like Meta and Anthropic,  said Meryem Arik, CEO of the AI startup Doubleword.

And the chip industry is “not a zero-sum game with just one winner,” said Barringer.

For one, AI developers can only access Google’s chips through the company’s own cloud service. They can use Nvidia’s  graphics processing units, or GPUs, more flexibly.  “As soon as you use TPUs, you’re locked into” the Google cloud ecosystem, said Arik.

Being tied to a single supplier might have been something companies avoided. That’s no longer the case for Google, thanks to its advances in AI.

“It’s definitely fair to say that Google is back in the game with Gemini 3,” said Thomas Husson, analyst at Forrester. “In fact, to paraphrase a quote attributed to Mark Twain, reports of Google’s death have been widely exaggerated, not to say irrelevant.”



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Gates Foundation, OpenAI unveil $50 million ‘Horizon1000’ initiative to boost healthcare in Africa through AI

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In a major effort to close the global health equity gap, the Gates Foundation and OpenAI are partnering on “Horizon1000,” a collaborative initiative designed to integrate artificial intelligence into healthcare systems across Sub-Saharan Africa. Backed by a joint $50 million commitment in funding, technology, and technical support, the partnership aims to equip 1,000 primary healthcare clinics with AI tools by 2028, Bill Gates announced in a statement on his Gates Notes, where he detailed how he sees AI playing out as a “gamechanger” for expanding access to quality care.

The initiative will begin operations in Rwanda, working directly with African leaders to pioneer the deployment of AI in health settings. With a core principle of the Foundation being to ensure that people in developing regions do not have to wait decades for new technologies to reach them, the goal in this partnership is to reach 1,000 primary health care clinics and their surrounding communities by 2028.

“A few years ago, I wrote that the rise of artificial intelligence would mark a technological revolution as far-reaching for humanity as microprocessors, PCs, mobile phones, and the Internet,” Gates wrote. “Everything I’ve seen since then confirms my view that we are on the cusp of a breathtaking global transformation.”

Addressing a Critical Workforce Shortage

The impetus for Horizon1000, Gates said, is a desperate and persistent shortage of healthcare workers in poorer regions, a bottleneck that threatens to stall 25 years of progress in global health. While child mortality has been halved and diseases like polio and HIV are under better control, the lack of personnel remains a critical vulnerability.

Sub-Saharan Africa currently faces a shortfall of nearly 6 million healthcare workers, ” a gap so large that even the most aggressive hiring and training efforts can’t close it in the foreseeable future.” This deficit creates an untenable situation where overwhelmed staff must triage high volumes of patients without sufficient administrative support or modern clinical guidance. The consequences are severe: the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that low-quality care is a contributing factor in 6 million to 8 million deaths annually in low- and middle-income countries.

Rwanda, the first beneficiary of the Horizon1000 initiative, illustrates the scale of the challenge. The nation currently has only one healthcare worker per 1,000 people, significantly below the WHO recommendation of four per 1,000. Gates noted that at the current pace of hiring and training, it would take 180 years to close that gap. “As part of the Horizon1000 initiative, we aim to accelerate the adoption of AI tools across primary care clinics, within communities, and in people’s homes,” Gates wrote. “These AI tools will support health workers, not replace them.”

AI as the ‘Third Major Discovery

Gates noted comments from Rwanda’s Minister of Health Dr. Sabin Nsanzimana, who recently announced the launch of an AI-powered Health Intelligence Center in Kigali. Nsanzimana described AI as the third major discovery to transform medicine, following vaccines and antibiotics, Gates noted, saying that he agrees with this view. “If you live in a wealthier country and have seen a doctor recently, you may have already seen how AI is making life easier for health care workers,” Gates wrote. “Instead of taking notes constantly, they can now spend more time talking directly to you about your health, while AI transcribes and summarizes the visit.”

In countries with severe infrastructure limitations, he wrote, these capabilities will foster systems that help solve “generational challenges” that were previously unaddressable.

As the initiative rolls out over the next few years, the Gates Foundation plans to collaborate closely with innovators and governments in Sub-Saharan Africa. Gates wrote that he himself plans to visit the region soon to see these AI solutions in action, maintaining a focus on how technology can meet the most urgent needs of billions in low- and middle-income countries.



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On Netflix’s earnings call, co-CEOs can’t quell fears about the Warner Bros. bid

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When it comes to creating irresistible storylines, Netflix, the home of Stranger Things and The Crown, is second to none. And as the streaming video giant delivered its quarterly earnings report on Tuesday, executives were in top storytelling form, pitching what they promise will be a smash hit: the acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery.

The company’s co-CEOs, Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters, said the deal, which values Warner Brothers Discovery at $83 billion, will accelerate its own core streaming business while helping it expand into TV and the theatrical film business. 

“This is an exciting time in the business. Lots of innovation, lots of competition,” Sarandos enthused on Tuesday’s earnings conference call. Netflix has a history of successful transformation and of pivoting opportunistically, he reminded the audience: Once upon a time, its main business entailed mailing DVDs in red envelopes to customers’ homes. 

Despite Sarandos’ confident delivery, however, the pitch didn’t land with investors. The company’s stock, which was already down 15% since Netflix announced the deal in early December, sank another 4.9% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. 

Netflix’s financial results for the final quarter of 2025 were fine. The company beat EPS expectations by a penny, and said it now has 325 million paid subscribers and a worldwide total audience nearing 1 billion. Its 2026 revenue outlook, of between $50.7 billion and $51.7 billion, was right on target.  

Still, investors are worried that the Warner Bros. deal will force Netflix to compete outside its lane, causing management to lose focus. The fact that Netflix will temporarily halt its share buybacks in order to accumulate cash to help finance the deal, as it disclosed towards the bottom of Tuesday’s shareholder letter, probably didn’t help matters. 

And given that there’s a rival offer for Warner Bros from Paramount Skydance, it’s not unreasonable for investors to worry that Netflix may be forced into an expensive bidding war. (Even though Warner Brothers Discovery has accepted the Netflix offer over Paramount’s, no one believes the story is over—not even Netflix, which updated its $27.75 per share offer to all-cash, instead of stock and cash, hours earlier on Tuesday in order to provide WBD shareholders with “greater value certainty.”) 

Investors are wary; will regulators balk?

Warner Brothers investors are not the only audience that Netflix needs to win over. The deal must be blessed by antitrust regulators—a prospect whose outcome is harder to predict than ever in the Trump administration.

Sarandos and Peters laid out the case Tuesday for why they believe the deal will get through the regulatory process, framing the deal as a boon for American jobs.

“This is going to allow us to significantly expand our production capacity in the U.S. and to keep investing in original content in the long term, which means more opportunities for creative talent and more jobs,” Sarandos said.

Referring to Warner Brothers’ television and film businesses, he added that “these folks have extensive experience and expertise. We want them to stay on and run those businesses. We’re expanding content creation not collapsing it.”

It’s a compelling story. But the co-CEOs may have neglected to study the most important script of all when it comes to getting government approval in the current administration; they forgot to recite the Trump lines. 

The example has been set over the past 12 months by peers such as Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg. The latter, with his company facing various federal regulatory threats, began publicly praising the Trump administration on an earnings call last January. 

And Nvidia’s Huang has already seen real dividends from a similar strategy. The chip company CEO has praised Trump repeatedly on earnings calls, in media interviews, and in conference keynote speeches, calling him “America’s unique advantage” in AI. Since then, the U.S. ban on selling Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to China has been rescinded. The praise may have been coincidental to the outcome, but it certainly didn’t hurt.

In contrast, the president went unmentioned on Tuesday’s call. How significant Netflix’s omission of a Trump call-out turns out to be remains to be seen; maybe it won’t matter at all. But it’s worth noting that its competitor for Warner Bros., Paramount Skydance, is helmed by David Ellison, an outspoken Trump supporter. 

It’s a storyline that Netflix should have seen coming, and itmay still send the company back to rewrite.



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Americans are paying nearly all of the tariff burden as international exports die down, study finds

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After nearly a year of promises tariffs would boost the U.S. economy while other countries footed the bill, a new study shows almost all of the tariff burden is falling on American consumers. 

Americans are paying 96% of the costs of tariffs as prices for goods rise, according to research published Monday by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank. 

In April 2025 when President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs, he claimed: “For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike.” But the report suggests tariffs have actually cost Americans more money.

Trump has long used tariffs as leverage in non-trade political disputes. Over the weekend, Trump renewed his trade war in Europe after Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland sent troops for training exercises in Greenland. The countries will be hit with a 10% tariff starting on Feb. 1 that is set to rise to 25% on June 1, if a deal for the U.S. to buy Greenland is not reached. 

On Monday, Trump threatened a 200% tariff on French wine, after French President Emmanuel Macron refused to join Trump’s “Board of Peace” for Gaza, which has a $1 billion buy-in for permanent membership. 

“The claim that foreign countries pay these tariffs is a myth,” wrote Julian Hinz, research director at the Kiel Institute and an author of the study. “The data show the opposite: Americans are footing the bill.” 

The research shows export prices stayed the same, but the volume has collapsed. After imposing a 50% tariff on India in August, exports to the U.S. dropped 18% to 24%, compared to the European Union, Canada, and Australia. Exporters are redirecting sales to other markets, so they don’t need to cut sales or prices, according to the study.

“There is no such thing as foreigners transferring wealth to the U.S. in the form of tariffs,” Hinz told The Wall Street Journal

For the study, Hinz and his team analyzed more than 25 million shipment records between January 2024 through November 2025 that were worth nearly $4 trillion.They found exporters absorbed just 4% of the tariff burden and American importers are largely passing on the costs to consumers. 

Tariffs have increased customs revenue by $200 billion, but nearly all of that comes from American consumers. The study’s authors likened this to a consumption tax as wealth transfers from consumers and businesses to the U.S. Treasury.   

Trump has also repeatedly claimed tariffs would boost American manufacturing, butthe economy has shown declines in manufacturing jobs every month since April 2025, losing 60,000 manufacturing jobs between Liberation Day and November. 

The Supreme Court was expected to rule as soon as today on whether Trump’s use of emergency powers to levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was legal. The court initially announced they planned to rule last week and gave no explanation for the delay. 

Although justices appeared skeptical of the administration’s authority during oral arguments in November, economists predict the Trump administration will find alternative ways to keep the tariffs.



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