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Goldman Sachs CEO: AI’s opportunity is enormous, but ‘there will be winners and losers’

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Good morning. David Solomon, chair and CEO of Goldman Sachs, leads one of the world’s most prominent investment banks and sees AI as a key growth driver, though he cautions the path ahead won’t be straightforward.

Speaking at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., on Thursday in a conversation with Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, Solomon discussed the state of the U.S. economy, the impact of rising public debt, and the AI investment boom in front of a packed audience.

An outlook on growth

Goldman Sachs (No. 32 on the Fortune 500) reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings this month, driven by robust investment banking fees and trading revenue. When Rubenstein asked Solomon whether the U.S. faces a near-term recession, Solomon offered cautious optimism.

“We’ve got a big, diverse economy,” he said. “It’s in pretty good shape at the moment. There are things we cannot see that could set it off, but I think the chance of a recession in the near term is low.” Solomon pointed to the buildout of AI infrastructure as a key force supporting growth.

“You have six or seven large companies that are going to spend $350 billion [combined] this year on AI infrastructure—that has an effect on growth,” he said. As AI becomes integrated into enterprise operations, Solomon expects meaningful productivity gains.

Turning to the country’s rising debt burden, Solomon said it will result in a “reckoning” if the economy does not grow faster. “The path out really isn’t a revenue path out,” he said. “The path out is a growth path.”

The AI boom

When Rubenstein asked whether the massive market capitalizations of major tech firms, some nearing $5 trillion, signal a potential bubble, Solomon offered a historical perspective.

“Whenever you have an acceleration in technology and people get excited about it, you see significant capital formation by new companies trying to capitalize on that opportunity,” he said. “We’ve seen this before through history.” He added, “It won’t be a straight line.” Solomon further discussed today’s AI wave.

The opportunity set with AI is “enormous,” he said. “There will be winners and losers, and it’s hard to pick them now.” A lot of the capital being deployed will not produce adequate returns—and some won’t produce any returns at all, he added.

Reflecting on past investment cycles, Solomon recalled then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s famous warning about “irrational exuberance” in 1996.

“At that time, the Nasdaq was near 1,300. About three and a half years later, it rose above 5,000. Ultimately, there were adjustments and drawdowns,” Solomon said. The trend for AI investment is real, he said. “There’s real productivity—but these things never move in a straight line,” he added.

Solomon’s remarks reflect a broader theme across Wall Street: optimism about AI’s potential to drive growth, tempered by awareness that not every investor, or company, will come out ahead.

Have a good weekend.

Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com

***Upcoming Event: Join us for our next Emerging CFO webinar, Optimizing for a Human-Machine Workforce, presented in partnership with Workday, on Nov. 13 from 11 a.m. to 12 p.m. ET.

We’ll explore how leading CFOs are rethinking the future of work in the age of agentic AI—including when to deploy AI agents to accelerate automation, how to balance ROI tradeoffs between human and digital talent, and the upskilling strategies CFOs are applying to optimize their workforces for the future.

You can register here. Email us at CFOCollaborative@Fortune.com with any questions.

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Fortune 500 Power Moves

Homer Bhullar was promoted to SVP and CFO at Valero Energy Corporation (No. 34), effective January 1, 2026. Bhullar will succeed Jason Fraser, who will remain as EVP and CFO until he steps down on December 31, and will retire as an employee in the first quarter of 2026. Bhullar has served as Valero’s VP of investor relations and finance since April 29, 2021. He joined Valero in 2014. 

Paul Todd was appointed CFO of Fiserv, Inc. (No. 208), effective October 31. Todd, who previously served as CFO of Global Payments, succeeds Robert Hau, who will serve as a senior advisor through the first quarter of 2026 to support a transition. Todd has been serving as a special advisor to the executive leadership team for the last several weeks.

Kevin Boone was appointed EVP and CFO of CSX (No. 301), succeeding Sean Pelkey, who has departed the company.  Boone joined CSX in 2017 and has held several key leadership roles. Most recently, he served as EVP and chief commercial officer. Boone also served as VP of corporate affairs and investor relations at CSX. 

Paul Kuehneman was appointed interim CFO and controller at Hormel Foods Corporation (No. 352), effective October 27. Kuehneman succeeds Jacinth Smiley, who is leaving the company and will be pursuing other opportunities, according to the announcement. Kuehneman has more than 30 years of business and finance experience at Hormel Foods, holding a variety of leadership roles, most recently, VP and controller.

Every Friday morning, the weekly Fortune 500 Power Moves column tracks Fortune 500 company C-suite shifts—see the most recent edition

More notable moves this week:

Mala Murthy was appointed EVP and CFO of TriNet (NYSE: TNET), a provider of human resources solutions,  effective November 28. Murthy will succeed TriNet’s current CFO, Kelly Tuminelli, who will serve as a special advisor to the CEO through March 16, 2026. Murthy most recently served as CFO of Teladoc Health. Before that, she held several senior executive positions at American Express, including CFO of its global commercial services segment. She also previously served in FP&A, treasury, and corporate development and strategy leadership positions with PepsiCo. 

Michelle Turner was appointed CFO of Teradyne, Inc. (Nasdaq: TER), a provider of automated test equipment and advanced robotics, effective November 3. Turner replaces Sanjay Mehta, who has served as Teradyne’s CFO since 2019. Turner brings 30 years of financial and strategic leadership experience. Before joining Teradyne, she was the CFO for L3Harris Technologies. Turner has also held a variety of senior financial management and leadership roles in Johnson & Johnson, BHP Billiton, Raytheon, and Honeywell.

Big Deal

For the third annual Cyber 60 list released this week, Fortune, Lightspeed Venture Partners, and AWS take a look at the most innovative cybersecurity startups creating the tools to meet threats head-on and keep businesses safe. 

 

The list shows just how pervasive AI has become in the field. Of the 14 new startups on the list in the “early-stage” category, just about all are focused squarely on AI. For example, products from companies like Cogent Security, 7AI, Prophet, and Dropzone AI, automate some of the routine defensive tactics that companies perform, using agents to send out alerts and escalate incident reports. 

Going deeper

Here are four Fortune weekend reads:

Crypto founders are getting very rich, very fast—again” by Jeff John Roberts

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella says Bill Gates told him his big bet on OpenAI would be a flop: ‘Yeah, you’re going to burn this billion dollars’” by Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez

Michael Dell’s son aims to transform the home power business by selling electricity and backup battery power like a Costco membership” by Jordan Blum

Harvard professor calls out ‘lie’ of needing 8 hours of sleep a night, says it’s Industrial Era ‘nonsense’” Ashley Lutz 

Overheard

“Silicon Valley is optimizing for the wrong metric. Most people working in high-stakes  domains recognize now that AI will not take every job, but with that realization comes a  harder truth: the industry has been building autonomy when it should have been building  accountability.” 

—Joel Hron, chief technology officer at Thomson Reuters, writes in a Fortune opinion piece



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Nearly three-quarters of Trump voters think the cost of living is bad or the worst ever

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President Donald Trump and his administration insist that costs are coming down, but voters are skeptical, including those who put him back in the White House.

Despite Republicans getting hammered on affordability in off-year elections last month, Trump continues to downplay the issue, contrasting with his message while campaigning last year.

“The word affordability is a con job by the Democrats,” Trump said during a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday. “The word affordability is a Democrat scam.”

But a new Politico poll found that 37% of Americans who voted for him in 2024 believe the cost of living is the worst they can ever remember, and 34% say it’s bad but can think of other times when it was worse.

The White House has said Trump inherited an inflationary economy from President Joe Biden and point to certain essentials that have come down since Trump began his second term, such as gasoline prices.

The poll shows that 57% of Trump voters say Biden still bears full or almost full responsibility for today’s economy. But 25% blame Trump completely or almost completely.

That’s as the annual rate of consumer inflation has steadily picked up since Trump launched his global trade war in April, and grocery prices have gained 1.4% between January and September.

Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance pleaded for “patience” on the economy last month as Americans want to see prices decline, not just grow at a slower pace.

Even a marginal erosion in Trump’s electoral coalition could tip the scales in next year’s midterm elections, when the president will not be on the ballot to draw supporters.

A soft spot could be Republicans who don’t identify as “MAGA.” Among those particular voters, 29% said Trump has had a chance to change things in the economy but hasn’t taken it versus 11% of MAGA voters who said that.

Across all voters, 45% named groceries as the most challenging things to afford, followed by housing (38%) and health care (34%), according to the Politico poll.

The poll comes as wealthier households are having trouble affording basics, while discount retailers like Walmart and even Dollar Tree are seeing more higher-income customers.

And in a viral Substack post last month, Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager for Simplify Asset Management, argued that the real poverty line should be around $140,000.

“If the crisis threshold—the floor below which families cannot function—is honestly updated to current spending patterns, it lands at $140,000,” he wrote. “What does that tell you about the $31,200 line we still use? It tells you we are measuring starvation.”



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Apple is experiencing its biggest leadership shakeup since Steve Jobs died, with over half a dozen key executives headed for the exits

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Apple is currently undergoing the most extensive executive overhaul in recent history, with a wave of senior leadership departures that marks the company’s most significant management realignment since its visionary co-founder and CEO Steve Jobs died in 2011. The leadership exodus spans critical divisions from artificial intelligence to design, legal affairs, environmental policy, and operations, which will have major repercussions for Apple’s direction for the foreseeable future.

On Thursday, Apple announced Lisa Jackson, its VP of environment, policy, and social initiatives, as well as Kate Adams, the company’s general counsel, will both retire in 2026. Adams has been Apple’s chief legal officer since 2017, and Jackson joined Apple in 2013. Adams will step down late next year, while Jackson will leave next month.

Jackson and Adams join a growing list of top executives who have either left or announced their exits this year. AI chief John Giannandrea announced his retirement earlier this month, and its design lead Alan Dye, who took charge of Apple’s all-important user interface design after Jony Ive left the company in 2019, was just poached by Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta this week.​

The scope of the turnover is unprecedented in the Tim Cook era. In July, Jeff Williams, Apple’s COO who was long thought to succeed Cook as CEO, decided to retire after 27 years with the company. One month later, Apple’s CFO Luca Maestri also decided to step back from his role. And the design division, which just lost Dye, also lost Billy Sorrentino, a senior design director, who left for Meta with Dye. Things have been particularly turbulent for Apple’s AI team, though: Ruoming Pang, who headed its AI Foundation Models Team, left for Meta in July and took about 100 engineers with him. Ke Yang, who led AI-driven web search for Siri, and Jian Zhang, Apple’s AI robotics lead, also both left for Meta.

Succession talks heat up

While all of these departures are a big deal for Apple, the timing may not be a coincidence. Both Bloomberg and the Financial Times have reported on Apple ramping up its succession plan efforts in preparation for Cook, who has led the company since 2011, to retire in 2026. Cook turned 65 in November and has grown Apple’s market cap from about $350 billion to a whopping $4 trillion under his tenure. Bloomberg reports John Ternus has emerged as the leading internal candidate to replace him.​

Apple choosing Ternus would be a pretty major departure from what’s worked for Apple during the past decade, which has been letting someone with an operational background and a strong grasp of the global supply chain lead the company. Ternus, meanwhile, is focused on hardware development, specifically for the iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Apple Watch. But it’s that technical expertise that’s made him an attractive candidate, especially as much of the recent criticism about Apple has revolved around the company entering new product categories (Vision Pro, but also the ill-fated Apple Car), as well as its struggling AI efforts.​

Now, of course, with so many executives leaving Apple, succession plans extend beyond the CEO role. Apple this week announced it’s bringing in Jennifer Newstead, who currently works as Meta’s chief legal officer, to replace Adams as the company’s general counsel starting March 1, 2026. Newstead is expected to handle both legal and government affairs, which is essentially a consolidation of responsibilities among Apple’s leadership team, merging Adams’ and Jacksons’ roles into one.​

Alan Dye, meanwhile, will be replaced by Stephen Lemay, a move that’s reportedly being celebrated within Apple and its design team in particular. John Gruber, who’s reported on Apple for decades and has deep ties within the company, wrote a pretty scathing critique about Dye, but in that same breath said employees are borderline “giddy” about Lemay—who has worked on every major Apple interface design since 1999, including the very first iPhone—taking over.

Meanwhile, on the AI team, John Giannandrea will be replaced by Amar Subramanya, who led AI strategy and development efforts at Google for about 16 years before a brief stint at Microsoft.

Hitting the reset button

All of the above departures cover critical functions for Apple: AI competitiveness, design innovation, regulatory navigation, and operational efficiency. Each replacement brings specialized expertise that aligns with the challenges Cook’s successor will inherit.

The real test will be execution across multiple fronts simultaneously. Can Subramanya accelerate Apple’s AI development to match competitive threats? Will Lemay’s design leadership maintain Apple’s interface advantages as AI reshapes user interaction? Can Newstead navigate regulatory challenges while preserving Apple’s privacy-first approach?

What’s certain is the company will look fundamentally different in 2026—and the executive team that grew Apple into a $4 trillion behemoth is departing. The transformation could be as profound as any since Jobs handed the reins to his COO at the time, Tim Cook, 14 years ago.



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Elon Musk says Tesla owners will soon be able to text while driving

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Elon Musk has given the thumbs up to some Tesla drivers texting behind the wheel.

The EV maker recently introduced a 30-day free trial of its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) (FSD) features on its North American cars, which has traffic-aware cruise control, autosteer, and autopark. To the Tesla CEO, the automated features in place are enough to condone texting while driving. According to safety experts, Musk’s suggestion is actually plain illegal.

In response to an X user’s question on Thursday about being able to text and drive while a Tesla is operating FSD v14.2.1, its latest full self-driving capabilities, Musk responded: “Depending on context of surrounding traffic, yes.”

Musk’s response mirrors his comments at Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting last month, where he said the company would soon feel comfortable with a multitasking driver.

“We’re actually getting to the point where we almost feel comfortable allowing people to text and drive, which is kind of the killer [application] because that’s really what people want to do,” Musk said. “Actually right now, the car is a little strict about keeping eyes on the road, but I’m confident that in the next month or two—we’re going to look closely at the safety statistics—but we will allow you to text and drive essentially.”

With a $1 trillion pay package on the line, Musk has worked to jumpstart Tesla after continued lagging sales. His lofty automation goals tied to the compensation plan include delivering 20 million vehicles and having 10 million active FSD subscriptions, as well as 1 million robotaxis on the commercially operational.

FSD roadbumps 

Tesla’s FSD rollout, much like its other automated technologies, has hit snags. In October, the U.S. Department of Transportation-run National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) opened an investigation into the EV maker, alleging its FSD software violated traffic laws and led to six crashes, four of which resulted in injuries. It cited data from 18 complaints from Tesla users claiming the FSD-equipped cars ran red lights or swerved into other lanes, including into oncoming traffic.

There is another complication for Musk’s vision of a Tesla owner typing away behind the wheel: Texting and driving is illegal in nearly the entire country, barring Montana, according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. According to the NHTSA, distracted driving resulted in 3,275 deaths in 2023.

Even Tesla has warned owners against texting while driving, even with some automated features in place: Tesla’s Model Y Owner’s Manual asks drivers not to use their phones while driving with Autopilot software enabled. (Autopilot refers to Tesla’s basic driver assistance features requiring hands on the steering wheel, while FSD is a paid subscription package with enhanced automated features and does not require a driver to have hands on the steering wheel.)

“Do not use handheld devices while using Autopilot features,” the manual said. “If the cabin camera detects a handheld device while Autopilot is engaged, the touchscreen displays a message reminding you to pay attention.”

Tesla did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

What experts are saying

Alexandra Mueller, senior research scientist for Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, told Fortune condoning texting while behind the wheel completely undermines the purpose of Tesla’s current automated features Tesla, which are a level 2 on the five-point automation scale, meaning the models require the driver to still be fully in control of the vehicle.

“Having partial automation support doesn’t mean that you suddenly can kick back and text and not worry about driving,” Mueller said, “because that’s just not how these systems are designed to be used—and that’s also not the responsibility that the driver has when using these systems, and that’s by design.”

She said automated systems like Tesla’s are not designed to replace the driver and work because they are “human-in-the-loop” and were designed to support the driver’s discretion behind the wheel. Beeps and notifications from the vehicle if a driver changes lanes without signalling can help shape good behaviors, Mueller noted. Encouraging multitasking behind the wheel turns these features into convenience factors, rather than the safety precautions they were intended to be.

“Suddenly all your safety assessments on the technology don’t apply anymore, because you’ve changed the very nature of how the technology is supporting human-in-the-loop behavior,” Mueller concluded.



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