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Gay Valimont, Jimmy Patronis both say voters in CD 1 will send a message in high-stakes Special Election

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No congressional district in Florida boasts a stronger track record of Republican support than Florida’s 1st Congressional District. However, as one of the first Special Elections for Congress since President Donald Trump’s 2024 win, Democrats poured millions into the Panhandle contest. Will it make a difference?

In a Tuesday Special Election, Democrat Gay Valimont faces Republican Jimmy Patronis in a race to decide who succeeds former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz.

In November, Valimont lost to Gaetz by 36 percentage points, as the district broke for Trump by 38 points. But this time, she has raised upward of $6.5 million, while Patronis has reported more than $2 million in contributions. Democrats hope to beat historic trends and send Valimont to Congress or at least to send a message to Washington about discontent within the electorate, even in Trump country.

“In Congress, I will show Florida’s 1st District what it looks like when the government truly works for the people and our needs,” Valimont said at a recent campaign event.

Patronis, for his part, remains confident the values of Panhandle voters will translate into election results. On the eve of the election, he told Florida Politics that voters in CD 1 want to empower Trump’s agenda, not cripple it.

“These are the same folks that less than six months ago overwhelmingly voted to elect President Donald J. Trump to the White House,” Patronis said. “They were fed up the last four years. They were fed up with the inflation crisis. They were fed up with being poor. They wanted a government that was responsible to the people, and this is why they showed up the way they did. So you know, they’re going to expect government that’s going to be effective and responsive to their needs. This is what they’re going to get with me.”

Patronis has served most of the last decade as Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, a post he had to resign from as of Monday to run for the U.S. House. Valimont has been involved in politics as an activist, including working for Moms Demand Action to find ways to curb gun violence.

Heading into Election Day, Democrats have turned out a higher percentage of their voters than Republicans. As of Monday morning, elections officials had received 11,611 mail-in ballots from Democrats across the district, slightly more than the 11,527 already turned in by Republicans. Another 3,756 ballots came in from voters not registered with either party.

But in-person early voting is a different story. Over two weeks, 31,875 Republicans took advantage of the opportunity to cast ballots in select locations, almost double the 16,430 Democrats who did the same. Another 7,893 voters also used early voting.

Heading into the April 1 Special Election, Republicans had a greater than 18-point advantage in raw turnout. Party officials expect that to increase, as many Republicans still favor voting at the polls on Election Day.

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried plans to canvas in Pensacola this morning for a last-minute drive to turn out voters for Valimont. Rapper 2 Chainz even held a free concert in Pensacola on Saturday to encourage early voting.

However, Republicans have also stepped up efforts to turn out Patronis voters. Trump, who endorsed Patronis before entering the race, held a tele-rally for the Panama City Republican this weekend. Republican Party of Florida Executive Director Bill Helmich said party volunteers made 200,000 phone calls in this race and another Special Election being held today.

“Obviously we want as many Republicans as possible voting,” he said. “Unless a lot of Republicans are voting against Mr. Patronis, which I doubt, he is fine.”

Florida Democratic Party Deputy Communications Manager Matt Dailey said that, between the two congressional elections in Florida on Tuesday, “Our whole staff is working one way or another.”

Privately, Democrats acknowledge an uphill battle for Valimont even with her cash advantage. But Valimont’s campaign sees a path to victory if she can turn out a high number of Democrats, win most independent voters, and convince enough Republicans that it is time for change. Efforts by the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency to gut defense spending have provided a strong message in a district where military spending keeps many households afloat.

“I will work to lower the cost of living, reduce homeowners’ insurance costs, protect Social Security and Medicare, and bring a VA hospital to our district,” Valimont said on social media. “I’m a mom and community advocate who will always put Northwest Florida first. I love this place. Every corner of this district reminds me of my family. My opponent is the CFO of Florida, the man responsible for Florida’s insurance crisis. He also doesn’t live in our district.”

But Patronis also feels voters know they are getting with him, and that’s a strong public servant. He twice carried this district in statewide races for his Cabinet post and expects to do so again on Tuesday.

“Jimmy Patronis is not a show horse. He’s a workhorse,” Patronis said of himself. “And you know, I really enjoy working. I’m the guy that likes to get to the office an hour before I’m supposed to be there, and I like to stay about an hour after I’m supposed to already leave. So I’m signing up for work. I’m signing up for my new job, and hopefully, I will get it with the people’s trust on Tuesday night.”


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Key First Coast manufacturing indicators show ‘softening’ in economic picture

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Northeast Florida’s manufacturing sector appears to have softened in March, as key elements are prompting concern.

The University of North Florida (UNF) Coggin College of Business monthly Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey showed contraction in several indicators last month. Manufacturers on the First Coast saw contraction in new orders, backlogs of work, finished goods inventory and employment in March when compared to the February numbers.

“In March, Jacksonville’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered 49, matching the national PMI figure,” said Albert Loh, UNF Coggin College Interim Dean who oversees the UNF monthly manufacturing report.

“A PMI below 50 signals contraction, indicating that the local manufacturing sector, like the nation’s, is facing softening conditions. This reading reflects a marginal decline in overall business activity, ending the modest expansion seen in prior months.”

The UNF business college conducts monthly surveys of First Coast manufacturers to determine production levels and other factors.

One of the most significant areas of contraction in North Florida manufacturing was in new orders. That factor dropped from 56 index points in February to 49 in March, the single largest index decline for any element in the survey.

Loh acknowledged that the notable drop in new orders among First Coast manufactures does not bode well for the coming weeks and months.

“This means more local firms reported a decline in new orders than those reporting increases, which is often an early warning sign for future slowdowns in production, hiring, and revenue,” Loh said in the report.

“Since new orders fuel upcoming output, a reading below 50 suggests that companies may start scaling back operations if this trend continues, especially in manufacturing sectors. For Jacksonville, a city with growing logistics and manufacturing activity, sustained declines in new orders could ripple through supply chains and reduce demand for transportation, warehousing, and other support services.”

One of those ripple effects is backlogs of work among First Coast manufacturing. While the contraction in that area was not as dramatic as new orders, backlogs are dropping as that index fell from 48 to 46 last month.

Loh said that’s another key factor that raises concern.

“For Jacksonville’s economy, a decline in backlogs may suggest that companies are working through existing orders without seeing a corresponding uptick in new demand, potentially leading to lower utilization of capacity and a weaker business outlook,” Loh said.

Some sectors of First Coast manufacturing expanded in March, such as output, new export orders and suppliers’ delivery times, among others. But those areas expanded by only modest levels.


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Don Gaetz says Joel Rudman has withdrawn bid for Pensacola State College Board

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Former Rep. Joel Rudman, a staunch ally of Gov. Ron DeSantis, is out as a nominee for the Pensacola State College Board of Trustees.

That’s what Chair Don Gaetz told the Senate Ethics and Elections Committee early in Tuesday’s meeting.

Rudman, a Navarre Republican who resigned from the Legislature before a failed bid for Congress, had promised what Gaetz called a “list that he was keeping close to his vest of legislators who were criminally violating drug laws.” But, as Gaetz told it, Rudman “decided toward the end of the week last week, just before the weekend, to announce that he had declined to appear before the committee.”

“And apparently he left the country,” Gaetz said.

From there, Rudman preemptively resigned from serving as an acting Board member at Pensacola State College, saying he would continue to support DeSantis as a “private citizen.”

Gaetz said Rudman was an “aggressive nominee who couldn’t wait to come before the committee, then he decided to decline to come before the committee because we were going to give him some opportunities.”

“I was going to ask him to reveal all of his names and to provide the evidence,” Gaetz said.

“We have individuals, officers, from the Florida Department of Law Enforcement who are here. They’re prepared to take down all the evidence and all the names, but Dr. Rudman has not favored us with his appearance. And now has resigned from the Board. And so consequently, there is no action to be taken by the Ethics and Elections Committee because we have a resigned individual.”

Rudman was unanimously rejected during last week’s hearing of the Senate Higher Education Appropriations Committee.

Clearly, this hearing wouldn’t have gone much better.

We reached out to Rudman for comment, but did not get an immediate response. We will update if he offers context for Gaetz’s remarks.


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As controversies pile up, Donald Trump allies increasingly turn on one another

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The infighting and backstabbing that plagued President Donald Trump’s first term have returned as a threat to his second, with deepening fissures over trade, national security and questions of personal loyalty.

The latest turmoil threatens to engulf the Pentagon, where Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has pushed out top advisers and faces fresh controversy over sharing sensitive information about airstrikes in Yemen outside of classified channels. A former Pentagon spokesperson who was ousted last week wrote in Politico that Trump should fire Hegseth for presiding over a “full-blown meltdown.”

The interpersonal drama is not — at least yet — a dominant plot line of Trump’s return to the White House. But its reemergence after a period of relative discipline in his ranks reflects a turbulent management style that has been suppressed or papered over, not reformed.

Trump’s national security team was recently rattled by an Oval Office visit from Laura Loomer, a far-right conspiracy theorist who has been questioning his staff’s trustworthiness. The Republican president fired some of the officials, emboldening Loomer to continue scrutinizing people across the administration.

In an interview with independent journalist Tara Palmeri released on Monday, Loomer mocked the idea that the White House is “one big happy family.”

“The advisers don’t get along with each other,” she said. “The heads of agencies don’t get along with each other.”

Tariff trouble causes friction

Much of the tension is connected to Trump’s determination to use tariffs to rebalance the global economy, with officials often contradicting each other and occasionally turning to insults. Trump adviser Elon Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur whose companies could suffer from higher costs brought on by import taxes, sharply criticized Peter Navarro, Trump’s top counselor on trade, as “dumber than a sack of bricks.”

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed the idea of growing dissension within the administration, saying there are “far more examples of the President’s team working together enthusiastically and collaboratively to advance the administration’s goals.”

“The numbers and results of this administration speak for themselves,” she said. “The President and his team are getting work done.”

Trump has always had a high tolerance for chaos, shunning traditional policy deliberations to entertain divergent opinions and viewing unpredictability as a negotiating tool. He’s spent years fostering a competitive atmosphere among his staff members, who are often chosen for their devotion and penchant for aggression.

But now the increasing strife underscores the risks for more turmoil in the months ahead, as Trump presses forward with a dramatic overhaul of the federal bureaucracy, international trade, foreign policy and more.

John Bolton, who served as national security adviser in Trump’s first term before writing a tell-all book critical of the president’s inner circle, said the drama reflects the lack of a consistent ideology and the inexperience of many administration officials.

“The only thing they have in common is the belief that they should show personal fealty to Trump,” Bolton said. “That got them the job. That may in fact keep them in the job. But it shows how fundamentally unserious they are.”

The situation is a test for Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, who helped run Trump’s presidential campaign last year. She earned a reputation for imposing an unusual level of order on Trump’s chaotic orbit — though she carefully avoided trying to control Trump or his impulses — and he praised her as “the ice maiden.”

During Trump’s first term, he had four chiefs of staff — one of them serving in an acting capacity for more than a year. The second, former U.S. Marine Gen. John Kelly, became a sharp critic of the president after he left the job, describing him as a fascist during the 2024 election.

Closing ranks around Hegseth

With his new administration, Trump has surrounded himself with loyalists, and he’s been reluctant to throw anyone overboard in response to negative coverage from the mainstream media, which he considers to be an enemy. Allies say the hesitance to make personnel changes in this term is meant to deny giving a win to critics, even if it means leaving troubled officials in place.

On Monday, the president brushed off reports that Hegseth participated in a second group chat to talk about pending airstrikes in Yemen last month. The first chat, which used the encrypted messaging application Signal, involved top administration officials as well as the editor of The Atlantic, who was accidentally included in the discussion.

The second, first reported by The New York Times on Sunday, included Hegseth’s wife, who does not have a government job, and his brother and his personal lawyer, both of whom work at the Pentagon.

“Same old stuff,” Trump said when reporters questioned him about it during the White House Easter egg roll. He said Hegseth is “doing a great job” and “it’s just fake news.”

Leavitt, in an appearance on Fox News Channel, defended Hegseth with a swipe at the people who work for him.

“This is what happens when the entire Pentagon is working against you and against the monumental change that you are trying to implement,” she said. Leavitt’s comment was shared by an official Defense Department social media account.

Loyalist, not Democrats, point fingers

However, some of those speaking out were among Hegseth’s top advisers.

John Ullyot, who served as a Pentagon spokesperson until he was asked to resign, wrote in Politico that “it’s hard to see Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth remaining in his role for much longer.” He added that “the President deserves better” and “many in the Secretary’s own inner circle will applaud quietly” if Hegseth is fired.

The disorder extends through the Pentagon’s senior ranks. Three officials — Dan Caldwell, Colin Carroll and Darin Selnick — were recently pushed out, and they issued a statement saying people “have slandered our character with baseless attacks on our way out the door.”

Hegseth did not deny the reports about his use of Signal. But he added: “What a big surprise that a few leakers get fired and suddenly a bunch of hit pieces come out.”

Trump’s tariff plans have also been a source of stress inside the administration, often leading to mixed messages and policy confusion. Navarro insisted there weren’t going to be any negotiations, contradicting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s insistence that import taxes were about strengthening the White House’s negotiating position.

The President partially retreated from his plans, but not before Navarro and Musk began openly feuding. Navarro said Musk was “protecting his own interests” by opposing tariffs, and he described Musk’s electric automaker Tesla as a “car assembler” that’s dependent on importing parts from overseas.

Musk, who advises Trump on ways to downsize the federal bureaucracy, responded by saying that Navarro was “truly a moron.”

Leavitt downplayed the dispute by saying “boys will be boys.”

“We will let their public sparring continue,” she told reporters. “And you guys should all be very grateful that we have the most transparent administration in history.”

Trump often appears more interested in fealty than veracity. During part of last year’s campaign, he traveled with Loomer, who has a history of making racist attacks on Trump’s opponents and once claimed the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks were an inside job.

After Trump won, Loomer became frustrated that she wasn’t allowed to help vet administration personnel. She eventually secured an Oval Office meeting with the President, bringing research on national security officials whom she believed were disloyal.

After Trump fired some of them, Loomer has continued her work. Last week, she accused Bessent of inviting a “Trump hater” to work with him on financial literacy efforts.

“I am going to personally tell President Trump and personally show him these receipts,” Loomer wrote on social media, adding “shame on” Bessent.

Musk shared her post and chimed in with his support — “troubling,” he wrote.

____

Republished with permission of The Associated Press.

 



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