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Gay Valimont, Jimmy Patronis both say voters in CD 1 will send a message in high-stakes Special Election

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No congressional district in Florida boasts a stronger track record of Republican support than Florida’s 1st Congressional District. However, as one of the first Special Elections for Congress since President Donald Trump’s 2024 win, Democrats poured millions into the Panhandle contest. Will it make a difference?

In a Tuesday Special Election, Democrat Gay Valimont faces Republican Jimmy Patronis in a race to decide who succeeds former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz.

In November, Valimont lost to Gaetz by 36 percentage points, as the district broke for Trump by 38 points. But this time, she has raised upward of $6.5 million, while Patronis has reported more than $2 million in contributions. Democrats hope to beat historic trends and send Valimont to Congress or at least to send a message to Washington about discontent within the electorate, even in Trump country.

“In Congress, I will show Florida’s 1st District what it looks like when the government truly works for the people and our needs,” Valimont said at a recent campaign event.

Patronis, for his part, remains confident the values of Panhandle voters will translate into election results. On the eve of the election, he told Florida Politics that voters in CD 1 want to empower Trump’s agenda, not cripple it.

“These are the same folks that less than six months ago overwhelmingly voted to elect President Donald J. Trump to the White House,” Patronis said. “They were fed up the last four years. They were fed up with the inflation crisis. They were fed up with being poor. They wanted a government that was responsible to the people, and this is why they showed up the way they did. So you know, they’re going to expect government that’s going to be effective and responsive to their needs. This is what they’re going to get with me.”

Patronis has served most of the last decade as Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, a post he had to resign from as of Monday to run for the U.S. House. Valimont has been involved in politics as an activist, including working for Moms Demand Action to find ways to curb gun violence.

Heading into Election Day, Democrats have turned out a higher percentage of their voters than Republicans. As of Monday morning, elections officials had received 11,611 mail-in ballots from Democrats across the district, slightly more than the 11,527 already turned in by Republicans. Another 3,756 ballots came in from voters not registered with either party.

But in-person early voting is a different story. Over two weeks, 31,875 Republicans took advantage of the opportunity to cast ballots in select locations, almost double the 16,430 Democrats who did the same. Another 7,893 voters also used early voting.

Heading into the April 1 Special Election, Republicans had a greater than 18-point advantage in raw turnout. Party officials expect that to increase, as many Republicans still favor voting at the polls on Election Day.

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried plans to canvas in Pensacola this morning for a last-minute drive to turn out voters for Valimont. Rapper 2 Chainz even held a free concert in Pensacola on Saturday to encourage early voting.

However, Republicans have also stepped up efforts to turn out Patronis voters. Trump, who endorsed Patronis before entering the race, held a tele-rally for the Panama City Republican this weekend. Republican Party of Florida Executive Director Bill Helmich said party volunteers made 200,000 phone calls in this race and another Special Election being held today.

“Obviously we want as many Republicans as possible voting,” he said. “Unless a lot of Republicans are voting against Mr. Patronis, which I doubt, he is fine.”

Florida Democratic Party Deputy Communications Manager Matt Dailey said that, between the two congressional elections in Florida on Tuesday, “Our whole staff is working one way or another.”

Privately, Democrats acknowledge an uphill battle for Valimont even with her cash advantage. But Valimont’s campaign sees a path to victory if she can turn out a high number of Democrats, win most independent voters, and convince enough Republicans that it is time for change. Efforts by the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency to gut defense spending have provided a strong message in a district where military spending keeps many households afloat.

“I will work to lower the cost of living, reduce homeowners’ insurance costs, protect Social Security and Medicare, and bring a VA hospital to our district,” Valimont said on social media. “I’m a mom and community advocate who will always put Northwest Florida first. I love this place. Every corner of this district reminds me of my family. My opponent is the CFO of Florida, the man responsible for Florida’s insurance crisis. He also doesn’t live in our district.”

But Patronis also feels voters know they are getting with him, and that’s a strong public servant. He twice carried this district in statewide races for his Cabinet post and expects to do so again on Tuesday.

“Jimmy Patronis is not a show horse. He’s a workhorse,” Patronis said of himself. “And you know, I really enjoy working. I’m the guy that likes to get to the office an hour before I’m supposed to be there, and I like to stay about an hour after I’m supposed to already leave. So I’m signing up for work. I’m signing up for my new job, and hopefully, I will get it with the people’s trust on Tuesday night.”


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St. Pete City Council OKs $22.5M for Tropicana Field roof repairs

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St. Pete City Council voted to approve $22.5 million to replace the iconic domed roof on Tropicana Field after it was destroyed by high winds from Hurricane Milton in October.

Replacing the roof has been a source of contention throughout the city as the future of Major League Baseball in St. Petersburg — or even perhaps the Tampa Bay region — remains in peril. The Rays are contractually obligated to play at Tropicana Field through the 2027 season, and as the team’s landlord, the city is required to fix the stadium.

While the vote may come as a frustration to some — including City Council member Richie Floyd, who voted against the expenditure because he wanted to see numbers worked up on how much it would cost to buy the Rays out of their remaining contract — the approved expenditure is about half the original estimated cost to fix the roof, estimated at nearly $56 million in November.

In response to Floyd’s concern about buying the Rays out of their remaining contract, City Administrator Rob Gerdes said it was considered, but doing so would have cost the city insurance reimbursements and Federal Emergency Management Agency aid, according to the Tampa Bay Times.

The vote paves the way for the Rays to return to Tropicana Field for the 2026 season, after they play this season in Tampa at Steinbrenner Field.

A report sent to St. Pete City Council in November outlined needed repairs and estimates to complete them, including $24 million to replace the roof. In all, the estimate came to $39 million in damages to the stadium, with another $16 million in other related needs.

The price tag is particularly stinging considering a calculated risk the city took last March, reducing its insurance coverage on Tropicana Field from $100 million to just $25 million. The move saved the city $275,000 on insurance premiums. The policy also has a $22 million deductible.

And it comes less than a month after Rays leadership announced it would not move forward with a previously approved stadium deal.

The team blamed “a series of events beginning in October” for its “difficult decision.” That’s in reference to Hurricane Milton and its damage to the stadium, which led to approval delays for bonds necessary to move forward with the deal.

The team has said those bond approval delays caused cost overruns and blamed the city of St. Pete and Pinellas County for hitches in what had seemed like a done deal.

Rays Principal owner Stuart Sternberg said at the time that the team was “excited to return to our home field next spring,” pointing to the city’s efforts to move forward with stadium repairs.

The latest also comes as investors are lining up to buy the Rays amid frustration with current ownership.

Tampa businessman Joe Molloy, who is a former minority owner of the New York Yankees, is heading a group of prospective Tampa-based investors seeking to buy the Rays. They would keep the team in St. Pete under the existing stadium deal, according to the Tampa Bay Times.


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Democrats take hope in flipping a county in a ruby red corner of the Florida Panhandle

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Tucked inside a gray cinder block building that doubles as a hair salon, Derrick Scott and Democrats in the westernmost part of the Florida Panhandle spent the last four months trying to pull off the improbable — flipping a conservative military stronghold that President Donald Trump won by nearly 20 percentage points in November.

When the results came in late Tuesday, Democrat Gay Valimont had fallen short of winning a congressional seat that few thought she had a chance to claim. But for the first time in almost two decades, a Democrat vying for federal office had carried Escambia County, home to Pensacola — a remarkable outcome in itself. The last time voters in the county backed a Democrat for the U.S. House was in 1992.

“I was gobsmacked to say the least,” said Scott, chair of the Escambia County Democratic Party.

The leftward shift around Pensacola and shrinking margins in the rest of the 1st Congressional District and another on Florida’s Atlantic Coast may foreshadow big challenges ahead for Republicans as they look to next year’s midterm elections. It could also illuminate a path forward for embattled Democrats in Florida and elsewhere.

Republicans, from Trump on down, are quick to tap the brakes on Democrats’ enthusiasm. They note that Trump-endorsed candidates Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine both won their respective special election contests by double-digit margins to replace Matt Gaetz, who the president tapped to be attorney general before he withdrew in a shroud of controversy, and Michael Waltz, who became Trump’s national security adviser.

The outcome grows the GOP majority in the U.S. House to 220-213.

Still, in less than five months, margins were cut in half from what their predecessors got last November in some of the most conservative corners of the country. Democrats leaned into frustrations among veterans and people who depend on federal programs and may be bearing the brunt of the Trump administration’s aggressive government overhaul. The results may hold lessons for how their party can make the case against the president and his party going forward.

Choosing a well-known face who had made inroads in Pensacola in the past election helped Democrats gain ground in a stretch of the Emerald Coast that is home to thousands of military veterans and their families. So did a decisive fundraising advantage, boosted by support from a political action committee led by a U.S. Navy veteran.

“It is a warning sign for Republicans in Florida and across the country, and it should send shivers down the spine of any Republican,” said Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried, who said the results were proof her party had a “pulse” in this state that lost its battleground status over the past few years.

Fried noted there are four military bases in or near Pensacola. And in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, about 60% of residents receive benefits through Veterans Affairs, Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.

“Those are the issues that are really going to be waking up the sleepy beast,” she said. “It’s not just Democrats, but Americans understand that the Trump and Elon Musk platform and issues are not going to work.”

The Ehr Force PAC is a play on founder Phil Ehr’s last name and military service. Ehr was already known in Pensacola and, in 2020, took 44% of the vote in this county compared to Gaetz’s 55%. He spent months working with local Democratic officials to call, text and door-knock, asking disengaged voters what would motivate them to come back to the polls. The PAC said there was “a significant number of defections” from the GOP.

“It’s a hard, hard road. But now we’ve seen it can be done,” Ehr said.

Heather Lindsay, the Republican mayor of the city of Milton in neighboring Santa Rosa County, voted for Valimont, the Democrat challenging Patronis.

“It’s not about being loyal to one party or the other,” she explained. “It’s about making sure we have a functioning democracy.”

Lindsay has been critical of the cuts impacting the Department of Veteran Affairs and of elected officials who have said little about some of the Trump administration’s new measures.

“I think the Republican Party ought to look closely at what happened in Escambia County and see why they couldn’t take Escambia County for granted,” she said. “To see Escambia County go blue is something to pay attention to.”

Since the GOP took control of the seat in 1994, Republicans had never dropped below 61% of the share of the vote in Florida’s 1st Congressional District. On Tuesday, Patronis received 57% of the vote, compared to his opponent Valimont, who got 42%.

Sally Dutcher, a 77-year-old retired search and rescue worker in Pensacola, was at the watch party for Patronis Tuesday night, where a wave of nervousness rippled through the crowd as supporters watched early returns come in. She said Republicans were “overconfident” and expects Democrats to point to these results to attract more support heading into the 2026 midterms.

“We’ve got to start now. We can’t let up,” Dutcher said. “They’re not going to. They’re already starting on the next election.”

Another area where Democrats gained ground was in Volusia County, made up of residents in Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach and other rural areas further inland. In that county, Fine won by slightly less than 2 percentage points against his Democratic opponent, Josh Weil, after Trump won by 21 percentage points in November.

William Bittorf, of Daytona Beach, said he felt relief when Fine won the race because he feels the Republican president needs more support in Congress to fulfill his agenda.

“I was worried because the Democrats had raised so much money,” Bittorf said.

In the same city, Susan Spencer, a 65-year-old resident, wanted to support a Democrat precisely to stop some of Trump’s actions.

Spencer, an independent voter turned off by the Republican Party after Trump was elected in 2016, stood in line to cast her vote, saying it was a “pivotal time in our government today.”

Spencer suspected most in the line ahead of her would vote for the Republican candidate.

“I just wonder if they also watch the news,” Spencer said.

___

Republished with permission of The Associated Press.


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Last Call for 4.3.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

The Legislature budgeted $160 million for the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) in 2023 to cover a Medicaid disallowance, but the state agency spent that money in other ways instead.

The federal government says AHCA still must settle the cost, so now agency leaders are asking lawmakers for the same amount again.

It’s a disagreement that is generating tension between the executive branch agency and the Florida House at a time when Gov. Ron DeSantis and House Speaker Daniel Perez already appear to be frequently at loggerheads.

The proposed House health care budget doesn’t currently include money specially earmarked for the $160 million disallowance, though the full House budget does have more than $183 million available to cover disallowances that could be used for this purpose.

But as the issue looms over budget negotiations, it has already garnered the attention of Washington, where Republicans continue to push to reduce spending.

The matter became the topic of a lengthy exchange at a House Health Care Budget Subcommittee meeting on March 12, where Republican members of the House sought an accounting of how the money was spent from Bryan Meyer, Deputy Secretary of Medicaid, and Lynn Smith, Deputy Secretary of Operations.

Read more on Florida Politics.

Evening Reads

The influential paper that explains Donald Trump’s radical tariff policy” via Dylan Matthews of Vox

—”‘I should have sold more’: Wall Street reels as Trump’s plan sinks markets” via Gregory Zimmerman, Krystal Hur and Gunjan Banerji of The Wall Street Journal

—”Market reacting poorly to Trump’s launch of huge, nonsensical tariffs that may have been created by a chatbot” via Ben Mathis-Lilley of Slate

—”Trump’s tariffs are designed to backfire” via Rogé Karma of The Atlantic

—“Why Democrats need to apologize to the public” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—”‘Gut punch’: Opposition grows to Attorney General’s decision not to enforce law banning gun sales to buyers under 21” via Matthew Cupelli of Fresh Take Florida

—”Randy Fine says Ron DeSantis, team ‘begged’ him to apply for FAU opening” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—”Democrats take hope in flipping a county in a ruby red corner of the Florida Panhandle” via The Associated Press

—”Senate passes bill banning geoengineering, weather modification” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics

—”Val Kilmer was born to play Jim Morrison” via Rob Sheffield of Rolling Stone

Quote of the Day

“For some reason, it seems the last week or so the Governor has been a little more emotional and has been upset …”

— House Speaker Daniel Perez, on the Governor’s relationship with the House.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Get your Tin Foil Hats ready because the Florida Senate has approved a bill banning geoengineering and weather modification in the Sunshine State.

Where did your 401(k) go? Have a Drain Pipe while you read up on the fallout from Liberation Day.

Order an Anchors Away for all the boat owners who know how to care for their vessels. For the others … well, there could be consequences.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Gators ready for Final Four

The Florida Gators tip off in the Final Four against Auburn on Saturday evening (6:09 p.m. ET, CBS).

Florida advanced to the program’s first Final Four since 2014 with an 84-79 victory over Texas Tech in the West Regional final. The Gators outscored the Red Raiders 20-6 to finish the game and earn the trip to San Antonio.

The meeting with Auburn will be the second this season. Florida beat the then-top ranked Tigers 90-81 on Feb. 8 in Alabama, handing Auburn its first loss of the season. In the game, Florida led the entire second half. Walter Clayton Jr. led Florida with 19 points as five Gators scored in double figures, including Thomas Haugh, who scored 16 points in 29 minutes off the bench.

Miles Kelly led Auburn with 22 points while Johni Broome added 18 points and 11 rebounds in the losing effort for the Tigers.

Auburn advanced to the Final Four with a 70-64 victory over second-seeded Michigan State in the South Regional final.

The other national semifinal pits Duke against Houston. This year, four number-one seeds have advanced to the Final Four for the first time since 2008.

If Florida were to beat Auburn, they would advance to Monday’s national championship game. If the Gators were to win the national title, it would be the third in program history, matching Villanova for eighth place all-time.

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.


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