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Former GE CEO Jack Welch once claimed the jobs numbers were faked. How did that turn out?

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Good morning. I’ve never liked how the U.S. measures joblessness. The official unemployment rate doesn’t include the number of people who have given up looking for work or are stuck in low-paid jobs that don’t match their skills and aspirations. It doesn’t capture the difference between long-term vs. short-term employment, contract or full-time jobs. Economists at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) understand that frustration and publish a range of measures to capture the nuance of labor underutilization.

President Trump agrees that the number doesn’t reflect the reality of unemployment, though he reached a very different conclusion last week in deciding the numbers were “phony” and “rigged” to underrepresent the robustness of the labor market. He was so mad about the July jobs report, which showed unemployment ticking up to 4.2%, that he decided to fire BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Friday.

I immediately thought about the reaction when former GE CEO Jack Welch tweeted his disdain about the job numbers under the Obama Administration back in October of 2012. Welch, a lifelong Republican, was skeptical that the unemployment rate had fallen below 8% for the first time in four years with an election looming. He tweeted: “Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can’t debate so change numbers.”

Welch had been retired from GE for more than a decade at that point and had plenty of opinions as a columnist for Fortune. Nevertheless, there was outrage that a leader of his stature was attacking the integrity of a vital nonpartisan government agency and the integrity of the U.S. itself by suggesting that core economic data was politicized. Welch quit the Fortune gig amid uproar over the tweet.

But he didn’t back away from his assertion. “I’m not the first person to question government numbers, and hopefully I won’t be the last,” he wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. He likened the blowback he was facing to Soviet Russia and Communist China. What Welch, a man who famously claimed to cut the bottom 10% of GE’s workforce every year, did not do: Call for the BLS commissioner to be fired.

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

Top news

When Rupert Murdoch dies …

President Trump’s defamation lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal claims Murdoch, 94, is so old he might not make it to trial. Fortune takes a look at what happens to the Murdoch family when the patriarch passes, and discovers that his company is structured in a way that all but guarantees conflict.

Trump continues false claims about the BLS

The president yesterday continued his tirade against Erika McEntarfer, the former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whom he fired on Friday. He called the BLS’s jobs numbers “A SCAM.” He offered no evidence that the numbers are manipulated and, in fact, no serious person thinks the jobs number is rigged. In reality, the numbers are sampled, estimated, and revised on a regular basis. That’s how statistics work!

New Fed governor and BLS chief incoming

The president is expected to appoint a new BLS chief this week and also fill a vacancy on the Fed’s board of governors in the coming days. What to watch for: Whether his nominees are credible or noncredible. Among the possible nominees are Kevin Hassett, currently director of the White House’s National Economic Council, Kevin Warsh of Stanford’s Hoover Institution, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the FT says.

Trump envoy is searching for a comprehensive Gaza deal

White House envoy Steve Witkoff met with the families of Israeli hostages being held by Hamas and told them Trump was looking for a complete end to the Gaza conflict with all hostages returned, and not a piecemeal deal. “Hamas has said it is prepared to demilitarize. But even over and above that, multiple Arab governments are now demanding that Hamas demilitarizes. So we are very very close to a solution around this war,” Witkoff said. Hamas said it would only disarm once it has its own state with Jerusalem as its capital. That scenario is extremely unlikely to be acceptable to Israel. Meanwhile, Hamas released a video of an emaciated hostage being forced to dig his own grave.

China is choking U.S. military’s rare earth supply 

China controls 90% of the supply of rare minerals and prices have gone through the roof. Some elements are now priced between five and 60 times higher than the standard price, the WSJ reports. The scarcities are being acutely felt by U.S. military kit makers. Manufacturers need the minerals for drones, fighter jets, microelectronics, night-vision goggles, missile-targeting systems and satellites, the WSJ reports.

Moody’s economist warns of recession

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi wrote in a series of X posts over the weekend that “the economy is on the precipice of recession,” specifically citing a poor jobs report, low consumer spending, and rising inflation. Zandi then blamed tariffs and a “highly restrictive immigration policy” for the economic downturn.

Boeing’s bet on the future

A conflict with the company’s union and numerous safety scandals have had a significant effect on Boeing’s bottom line and reputation over the past several years. Fortune’s Shawn Tully outlines how the airplane manufacturer is betting on its 39-year-old chief of commercial airplanes product development to stage a turnaround.

Lara Trump airs Epstein discussion

The president’s daughter-in-law and former co-chair of the Republican interviewed radio host Charlamagne Tha God on Sunday, and her guest argued that “traditional conservatives are going to take the Republican Party back” because they are so angry that the White House refuses to release all the files it holds on Jeffrey Epstein. Trump was not happy to hear that. He called Charlamagne a “racist sleazebag” and “a Low IQ individual, has no idea what words are coming out of his mouth, and knows nothing about me or what I have done,” on Truth Social.

The markets

S&P 500 futures were up 0.7% this morning, premarket, after the index closed down 1.6% on Friday. STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.64% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.49% in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.25%. China’s CSI 300 was up 0.39%. The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.91%. India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.6%. Bitcoin remains above $114K.

From the analysts

ING on the Fed: “Friday’s soft jobs report knocked the stuffing out of the dollar’s rally. Investors now attach an 80% probability to a 25bp rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September,” per Chris Turner et al.

Goldman Sachs on interest rates: “The US market’s hawkish read on Wednesday’s FOMC press conference has quickly faded into the background after Friday’s jobs report opened a clearer path to cuts,” per George Cole et al.

Goldman Sachs on US GDP: “We expect GDP to grow at a 1% annualized pace in 2025Q3 and 2025Q4, with roughly flat domestic final sales and boosts from a narrowing of the trade deficit and a rebound in inventory accumulation,” per Jan Hatzius et al.

JPMorgan on corporate earnings: “With 65% of S&P 500 companies having reported, the season has so far been better-than-expected. 77% of companies are beating 2Q earnings (vs. 73% avg. last 4Qs…) and 76% are beating revenue estimates (vs. 60%). Roughly 62% of companies have had double beats (i.e. sales and net income, vs. 48% last 4Qs,” per By Dubravko Lakos-Bujas et al.

Around the watercooler

North Korean IT worker infiltrations exploded 220% over the past 12 months, with GenAI weaponized at every stage of the hiring process by Amanda Gerut

Sheryl Sandberg, Bill Gates and the world’s top CEOs swear by the same daily habit—this career coach says Gen Z can easily steal it for success by Orianna Rosa Royle

A vacancy on the Fed is opening early as Trump urges board to ‘assume control’ if Powell doesn’t cut rates by Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sold stocks and didn’t snap up bargains even as markets crumbled after ‘Liberation Day’ by Jason Ma

Figma IPO’s surprise winner is a charity with 13 million shares—and a famous backstory that sparked a bitter feud over an oil fortune decades ago by Allie Garfinkle

CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams and Jim Edwards.

This is the web version of CEO Daily, a newsletter of must-read global insights from CEOs and industry leaders. Sign up to get it delivered free to your inbox.



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Netflix–Warner Bros. deal sets up $72 billion antitrust test

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Netflix Inc. has won the heated takeover battle for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Now it must convince global antitrust regulators that the deal won’t give it an illegal advantage in the streaming market. 

The $72 billion tie-up joins the world’s dominant paid streaming service with one of Hollywood’s most iconic movie studios. It would reshape the market for online video content by combining the No. 1 streaming player with the No. 4 service HBO Max and its blockbuster hits such as Game Of ThronesFriends, and the DC Universe comics characters franchise.  

That could raise red flags for global antitrust regulators over concerns that Netflix would have too much control over the streaming market. The company faces a lengthy Justice Department review and a possible US lawsuit seeking to block the deal if it doesn’t adopt some remedies to get it cleared, analysts said.

“Netflix will have an uphill climb unless it agrees to divest HBO Max as well as additional behavioral commitments — particularly on licensing content,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jennifer Rie. “The streaming overlap is significant,” she added, saying the argument that “the market should be viewed more broadly is a tough one to win.”

By choosing Netflix, Warner Bros. has jilted another bidder, Paramount Skydance Corp., a move that risks touching off a political battle in Washington. Paramount is backed by the world’s second-richest man, Larry Ellison, and his son, David Ellison, and the company has touted their longstanding close ties to President Donald Trump. Their acquisition of Paramount, which closed in August, has won public praise from Trump. 

Comcast Corp. also made a bid for Warner Bros., looking to merge it with its NBCUniversal division.

The Justice Department’s antitrust division, which would review the transaction in the US, could argue that the deal is illegal on its face because the combined market share would put Netflix well over a 30% threshold.

The White House, the Justice Department and Comcast didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. 

US lawmakers from both parties, including Republican Representative Darrell Issa and Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren have already faulted the transaction — which would create a global streaming giant with 450 million users — as harmful to consumers.

“This deal looks like an anti-monopoly nightmare,” Warren said after the Netflix announcement. Utah Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, said in a social media post earlier this week that a Warner Bros.-Netflix tie-up would raise more serious competition questions “than any transaction I’ve seen in about a decade.”

European Union regulators are also likely to subject the Netflix proposal to an intensive review amid pressure from legislators. In the UK, the deal has already drawn scrutiny before the announcement, with House of Lords member Baroness Luciana Berger pressing the government on how the transaction would impact competition and consumer prices.

The combined company could raise prices and broadly impact “culture, film, cinemas and theater releases,”said Andreas Schwab, a leading member of the European Parliament on competition issues, after the announcement.

Paramount has sought to frame the Netflix deal as a non-starter. “The simple truth is that a deal with Netflix as the buyer likely will never close, due to antitrust and regulatory challenges in the United States and in most jurisdictions abroad,” Paramount’s antitrust lawyers wrote to their counterparts at Warner Bros. on Dec. 1.

Appealing directly to Trump could help Netflix avoid intense antitrust scrutiny, New Street Research’s Blair Levin wrote in a note on Friday. Levin said it’s possible that Trump could come to see the benefit of switching from a pro-Paramount position to a pro-Netflix position. “And if he does so, we believe the DOJ will follow suit,” Levin wrote.

Netflix co-Chief Executive Officer Ted Sarandos had dinner with Trump at the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida last December, a move other CEOs made after the election in order to win over the administration. In a call with investors Friday morning, Sarandos said that he’s “highly confident in the regulatory process,” contending the deal favors consumers, workers and innovation. 

“Our plans here are to work really closely with all the appropriate governments and regulators, but really confident that we’re going to get all the necessary approvals that we need,” he said.

Netflix will likely argue to regulators that other video services such as Google’s YouTube and ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok should be included in any analysis of the market, which would dramatically shrink the company’s perceived dominance.

The US Federal Communications Commission, which regulates the transfer of broadcast-TV licenses, isn’t expected to play a role in the deal, as neither hold such licenses. Warner Bros. plans to spin off its cable TV division, which includes channels such as CNN, TBS and TNT, before the sale.

Even if antitrust reviews just focus on streaming, Netflix believes it will ultimately prevail, pointing to Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime and Walt Disney Co. as other major competitors, according to people familiar with the company’s thinking. 

Netflix is expected to argue that more than 75% of HBO Max subscribers already subscribe to Netflix, making them complementary offerings rather than competitors, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing confidential deliberations. The company is expected to make the case that reducing its content costs through owning Warner Bros., eliminating redundant back-end technology and bundling Netflix with Max will yield lower prices.



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The rise of AI reasoning models comes with a big energy tradeoff

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Nearly all leading artificial intelligence developers are focused on building AI models that mimic the way humans reason, but new research shows these cutting-edge systems can be far more energy intensive, adding to concerns about AI’s strain on power grids.

AI reasoning models used 30 times more power on average to respond to 1,000 written prompts than alternatives without this reasoning capability or which had it disabled, according to a study released Thursday. The work was carried out by the AI Energy Score project, led by Hugging Face research scientist Sasha Luccioni and Salesforce Inc. head of AI sustainability Boris Gamazaychikov.

The researchers evaluated 40 open, freely available AI models, including software from OpenAI, Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Microsoft Corp. Some models were found to have a much wider disparity in energy consumption, including one from Chinese upstart DeepSeek. A slimmed-down version of DeepSeek’s R1 model used just 50 watt hours to respond to the prompts when reasoning was turned off, or about as much power as is needed to run a 50 watt lightbulb for an hour. With the reasoning feature enabled, the same model required 7,626 watt hours to complete the tasks.

The soaring energy needs of AI have increasingly come under scrutiny. As tech companies race to build more and bigger data centers to support AI, industry watchers have raised concerns about straining power grids and raising energy costs for consumers. A Bloomberg investigation in September found that wholesale electricity prices rose as much as 267% over the past five years in areas near data centers. There are also environmental drawbacks, as Microsoft, Google and Amazon.com Inc. have previously acknowledged the data center buildout could complicate their long-term climate objectives

More than a year ago, OpenAI released its first reasoning model, called o1. Where its prior software replied almost instantly to queries, o1 spent more time computing an answer before responding. Many other AI companies have since released similar systems, with the goal of solving more complex multistep problems for fields like science, math and coding.

Though reasoning systems have quickly become the industry norm for carrying out more complicated tasks, there has been little research into their energy demands. Much of the increase in power consumption is due to reasoning models generating much more text when responding, the researchers said. 

The new report aims to better understand how AI energy needs are evolving, Luccioni said. She also hopes it helps people better understand that there are different types of AI models suited to different actions. Not every query requires tapping the most computationally intensive AI reasoning systems.

“We should be smarter about the way that we use AI,” Luccioni said. “Choosing the right model for the right task is important.”

To test the difference in power use, the researchers ran all the models on the same computer hardware. They used the same prompts for each, ranging from simple questions — such as asking which team won the Super Bowl in a particular year — to more complex math problems. They also used a software tool called CodeCarbon to track how much energy was being consumed in real time.

The results varied considerably. The researchers found one of Microsoft’s Phi 4 reasoning models used 9,462 watt hours with reasoning turned on, compared with about 18 watt hours with it off. OpenAI’s largest gpt-oss model, meanwhile, had a less stark difference. It used 8,504 watt hours with reasoning on the most computationally intensive “high” setting and 5,313 watt hours with the setting turned down to “low.” 

OpenAI, Microsoft, Google and DeepSeek did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Google released internal research in August that estimated the median text prompt for its Gemini AI service used 0.24 watt-hours of energy, roughly equal to watching TV for less than nine seconds. Google said that figure was “substantially lower than many public estimates.” 

Much of the discussion about AI power consumption has focused on large-scale facilities set up to train artificial intelligence systems. Increasingly, however, tech firms are shifting more resources to inference, or the process of running AI systems after they’ve been trained. The push toward reasoning models is a big piece of that as these systems are more reliant on inference.

Recently, some tech leaders have acknowledged that AI’s power draw needs to be reckoned with. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said the industry must earn the “social permission to consume energy” for AI data centers in a November interview. To do that, he argued tech must use AI to do good and foster broad economic growth.



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SpaceX to offer insider shares at record-setting valuation

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SpaceX is preparing to sell insider shares in a transaction that would value Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker at a valuation higher than OpenAI’s record-setting $500 billion, people familiar with the matter said.

One of the people briefed on the deal said that the share price under discussion is higher than $400 apiece, which would value SpaceX at between $750 billion and $800 billion, though the details could change. 

The company’s latest tender offer was discussed by its board of directors on Thursday at SpaceX’s Starbase hub in Texas. If confirmed, it would make SpaceX once again the world’s most valuable closely held company, vaulting past the previous record of $500 billion that ChatGPT owner OpenAI set in October. Play Video

Preliminary scenarios included per-share prices that would have pushed SpaceX’s value at roughly $560 billion or higher, the people said. The details of the deal could change before it closes, a third person said. 

A representative for SpaceX didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. 

The latest figure would be a substantial increase from the $212 a share set in July, when the company raised money and sold shares at a valuation of $400 billion.

The Wall Street Journal and Financial Times, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter, earlier reported that a deal would value SpaceX at $800 billion.

News of SpaceX’s valuation sent shares of EchoStar Corp., a satellite TV and wireless company, up as much as 18%. Last month, Echostar had agreed to sell spectrum licenses to SpaceX for $2.6 billion, adding to an earlier agreement to sell about $17 billion in wireless spectrum to Musk’s company.

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The world’s most prolific rocket launcher, SpaceX dominates the space industry with its Falcon 9 rocket that launches satellites and people to orbit.

SpaceX is also the industry leader in providing internet services from low-Earth orbit through Starlink, a system of more than 9,000 satellites that is far ahead of competitors including Amazon.com Inc.’s Amazon Leo.

SpaceX executives have repeatedly floated the idea of spinning off SpaceX’s Starlink business into a separate, publicly traded company — a concept President Gwynne Shotwell first suggested in 2020. 

However, Musk cast doubt on the prospect publicly over the years and Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said in 2024 that a Starlink IPO would be something that would take place more likely “in the years to come.”

The Information, citing people familiar with the discussions, separately reported on Friday that SpaceX has told investors and financial institution representatives that it is aiming for an initial public offering for the entire company in the second half of next year.

A so-called tender or secondary offering, through which employees and some early shareholders can sell shares, provides investors in closely held companies such as SpaceX a way to generate liquidity.

SpaceX is working to develop its new Starship vehicle, advertised as the most powerful rocket ever developed to loft huge numbers of Starlink satellites as well as carry cargo and people to moon and, eventually, Mars.



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