Fear or missing out (FOMO) clearly isn’t an issue for many UK consumers this year. Instead of snapping up bargains at the first possible opportunity, expect a last-minute rush by shoppers over the Black Friday weekend with Cyber Monday capturing 42% of purchases, 40% higher than Black Friday itself.

Plus, order volumes on the Saturday prior to BF-weekend are “particularly low” as shoppers hold out for the main BF-weekend event, according to digital specialist fulfilmentcrowd, sharing its insights into order volumes during peak trading periods, including Black Friday weekend, pre-Christmas and post-Christmas sales.

So expect the busiest days for peak orders up until 31 January to be: 2 December (Cyber Monday); then 16 December, followed by 9 December; 3 December; 30 December; 20 January (Blue Monday); 25 November; 6 January; 13 January; and 27 January.

Of the 91 dates analysed, Black Friday came in at position #11, narrowly missing out on the top 10. Cyber Sunday came in at #35, and Cyber Saturday is #75, “showing that while Black Friday weekend kicks off festive spending, the approach to Christmas sees the majority of orders during peak”.

Moving onto the busiest days during Black Friday weekend for order volumes: Black Friday (30% of all weekend sales); Cyber Saturday (8.5% of all weekend sales); Cyber Sunday (19.5%) and Cyber Monday (42%)

For week-on-week increases in orders during Black Friday weekend: Black Friday (+56.6%); Cyber Saturday (+659%, due to order volumes on the Saturday the week prior being particularly low); Cyber Sunday (+45.3%) and Cyber Monday (+35.6%).

Fulfilmentcrowd CEO Lee Thompso  said: “In 2024, online Black Friday sales in the UK reached £1.12 billion. Our data shows that daily order averages increased by 42% over Black Friday weekend, when compared to the daily average across the wider peak months [between 1 November and 31 January]. 

“Interestingly, our data also shows that the busiest day of UK peak trading wasn’t Black Friday itself, but Cyber Monday, showing that UK shoppers delayed big purchases until the final moment of the BF weekend. Plus, it was Cyber Saturday that saw the largest week-on-week order increase (+659%) of the four BF weekend dates.”

The analysis also revealed that return levels spike before Christmas, “proving that early Black Friday purchases drive early returns”.

Its previous research revealed that UK shoppers return around 30% of fashion items bought online each year.

When looking at post-Black Friday, there are several pre-Christmas and post-Christmas peaks; for example, mid-December order volumes held steady (only a 4% increase week-on-week) suggesting UK shoppers reached peak buying earlier than expected.

While there are still some last-minute shoppers, the data showed a 72% decrease between 23 December and Christmas Eve. A small proportion (0.03% of all orders made between 1 November and 31 January) can’t wait, and are shopping on Christmas Day itself.

Boxing Day then saw an 83% drop in orders compared with the week before, showing shoppers shift from delivery to returns and in-store sales once Christmas passes. The New Year sales triggered an 811% surge in orders compared with Boxing Day, marking the strongest rebound of the peak period, illustrating the double wave of ‘returns + sale buying.’

In particular, Mondays in December and January were shopping hotspots, making up 80% of the top 10 dates for order volumes between 1st November and 31st January. Blue Monday – the name given to the third Monday in January, touted as the ‘most depressing day of the year’ – placed sixth in the top 10.