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Florida TaxWatch reports Sunshine State could add 1 or 2 House seats under potential reapportionment

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A Florida TaxWatch analysis suggests Florida missed out on a U.S. House seat after the last census — and maybe two. But any effort to correct that could impact 13 other states, depending how the federal government treats noncitizens in a new count.

The Tallahassee-based fiscal watchdog released its latest report, “Census Briefing: Apportionment changes amid policy proposals,” which evaluates three different methods by which the federal government could revisit its 2020 census data.

The report focuses on different outlooks one can take in revisiting the population count in the country conducted five years ago, not one that a snap census might produce. Whether trying to correct an undercount in the state or by changing standards to only count legal residents or legal citizens, the result for Florida would be the same: an increase in political influence from the 2021 reapportionment of congressional votes.

“During the 2020 census, an estimated 750,000 Floridians failed to respond to their census survey, resulting in a statistically significant undercount of 3.48%. This undercount cost the State of Florida at least one additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and at least one additional vote in the Electoral College, and billions of dollars’ worth of grant funding throughout the decade,” said Florida TaxWatch President Dominic Calabro.

The report came out as Gov. Ron DeSantis and Florida legislative leaders move toward a mid-decade redistrict similar to other states, a process that would be significantly impacted if Florida has more than the 28 U.S. House districts assembled in its current map. But sources closely following the redistricting process wonder whether the process would result in the gains desired by Florida Republicans.

Shorted by any measure

Florida TaxWatch has already explored one scenario. A July report showed that inaccuracies in the 2020 census — most because of an undercounting of people in the state — resulted in Florida, Texas and Tennessee all being shorted one congressional seat, while Colorado, Minnesota and Rhode Island all erroneously obtained a seat.

Of note, the three wronged states, according to that analysis, were ones President Donald Trump carried in the 2024 Presidential Election. All three states that gained from the undercount went for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

But TaxWatch in its latest analysis considered two other scenarios. The first considered what would happen if federal officials reapportioned seats after removing all individuals counted by the census who are in the country illegally. Another went a step farther and excluded any noncitizens from state counts.

For the former, TaxWatch subtracted the counts of undocumented immigrants from each state and evaluated how House seats would be apportioned based on those totals. Under this model, Florida would actually gain two House seats, while Louisiana, Ohio, Texas and Virginia each gained one. California and New York would lose two seats, while Minnesota and Rhode Island would each lose one.

“These results may seem surprising, considering Florida has the fourth highest estimate of illegal immigrants based on 2019 estimates (772,000),” the report reads. “If illegal immigrants were excluded from the census count, however, the effects of illegal immigrants in other states limit the effects of Florida’s own illegal immigrant population on apportionment.”

Meg Cannan, Director of the Florida TaxWatch Census Institute, was the report’s lead author.

Of note, the only state Harris won in 2024 that gains influence in this scenario would be Virginia. Notably, Virginia currently has a Republican Governor, Glenn Youngkin, and will hold an election in November to elect his successor. Every state losing seats under this measure was carried by Harris and has a Democratic Governor.

This method of recalculating political pull seems especially important as it most closely adheres to President Donald Trump’s own desires. The President, who has expressed a desire for a new census to be conducted ahead of the Midterm Elections, has said an accurate tabulation should not count anyone in the nation illegally.

Finally, TaxWatch studied a scenario similar to that proposed by U.S. Rep. Randy Fine, an Atlantic Coast Republican, with his Correct the Count Act (HR 4884). Fine’s legislation calls for a new census in 2025, one that includes only legal citizens and excludes any noncitizen living in the country legally or illegally. While TaxWatch doesn’t speculate what a new census may produce, researchers apply the same exclusions to state counts based on 2020 census data.

Doing that would result in seven states gaining one seat in a reapportionment process: Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia. Again, Virginia would be the only state Harris carried in 2024, though Pennsylvania went for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, and most analysts consider it a swing state.

Those seats would be obtained at the expense of four Democrat-controlled states, with three coming from California, two from New York and one each from Minnesota and Rhode Island.

Now what?

The bottom line for TaxWatch is that Florida missed out in the last national population count, no matter what anyone feels about inclusion of immigrants. That shows Florida should begin efforts now to ensure an accurate count using any standards once the 2030 census rolls around, and if a Trump-desired census occurs before then.

“Florida’s census undercount not only cost the state at least one congressional seat but also resulted in a loss of federal funding that will range from $11 billion to $21 billion by the end of the decade.”

“Planning for the next census count is currently shrouded by questions of whom to count and when to count. The three scenarios outlined by Florida TaxWatch reveal the answer to perhaps the most critical question for Florida taxpayers — what is at stake for the State of Florida? To maintain a fair democratic republic, every state should count its residents in the same way,” the analysis reads.

DeSantis, for his part, pushed for months for a new census to be conducted, one that would recognize the population growth in Florida and contrition in states like California. But more recently, the Florida Governor said the federal government could at least “reevaluate” the 2020 census data and whether Florida deserves more clout.

But sources close to the redistricting process question if a new census could be completed and allow sufficient time for a legally defensible redraw of Florida’s political boundaries.

House Speaker Daniel Perez already announced he will appoint a select committee to evaluate Florida’s congressional boundaries this year. That will look at lines in the wake of a Florida Supreme Court ruling that said districts could not be drawn with race as a motivating factor even to comply with language in a “Fair Districts” amendment to the state constitution. The Florida Senate has remained quiet to date on its own plans.

But the decision whether Florida could be awarded additional congressional seats, and not simply redraw lines for the 28 districts in the state now, must be done at the federal level, and would necessarily impact other states.

Of note, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott this week signed a new congressional map based on 2020 census data but which creates more districts where a majority of voters supported Trump in the 2024 Presidential Election. A new census, or even a reapportionment giving Texas an additional seat, would make that new map out of date and force a reboot of what has been a controversial and contentious process in the Lone Star State.

But many are skeptical whether that would occur, or even if it would achieve the goals of national Republicans in creating more GOP-friendly U.S. House seats ahead of the 2026 elections. One Democratic operative in Washington noted that New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, has expressed a desire to draw more Democratic districts in that state.

But New York is bound by statutory restrictions similar to Florida’s Fair Districts amendment, which have made a mid-decade redistricting legally questionable than in Texas. But a new census or a new apportionment of U.S. House seats would eliminate any barriers and allow New York to draw a more Democratic map.

One Republican source in Florida who closely followed the redistricting process in 2022, when DeSantis pressured the Legislature to pass a more GOP-friendly map than lawmakers drafted, suggested there isn’t the same room for gains for the GOP that exist in a state like Texas. The source noted raising the number of seats where Republicans can win in a good year also boosts the number of places the GOP could lose in a difficult year.

Historically, Midterm Elections have punished the party in control of the White House. Only twice in U.S. history has a President who newly won the White House seen his party gain seats. The last time was in 2002, when Republicans gained seats in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks during former President George W. Bush’s first term.

TaxWatch, for its part, did not explore what might result from a new census being performed ahead of any reapportionment or redistricting process. Calabro in a statement suggested a new population count now would at least raise legal questions.

“Any change to the operations of the census count must withstand constitutional scrutiny, which is why Florida TaxWatch examined three scenarios under the current proposed changes — concluding that Florida would have gained at least one additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in every scenario,” he said.

If a reapportionment occurred based on existing census data, it still would likely prompt legal challenges from states losing seats. But the TaxWatch analysis suggests that even if a mid-decade reapportionment took place, Florida almost inevitably would gain political power as a result.


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Senate advances Jason Pizzo bill extending PTSD workers’ comp coverage to 911 dispatchers

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Legislation that would narrowly recategorize 911 dispatchers as first responders so they can receive workers’ compensation for work-related psychological injuries is one step closer to passing in the Legislature’s upper chamber.

Members of the Government Oversight and Accountability Committee voted unanimously to advance the bill (SB 774), which would eliminate a barrier that today denies aid to people who are often the first to respond to a crime.

The measure’s sponsor, Hollywood Sen. Jason Pizzo, noted that during his time as a prosecutor, playing a 911 call would often be the most effective thing to do to sway a jury.

“911, what’s your emergency? He’s going to kill me! He’s going to kill me! Now, imagine hearing that 12 times a day, 15 times a day,” he said.

“Two years ago, you all voted to require these 911 operators to be proficient in CPR so they could administer (it) over the phone. And they’re not considered first responders? They are first responders, and they’ve been grossly overlooked and screwed, and this brings some remedy.”

SB 774 would add 911 dispatchers to the group of “first responders” covered by Florida’s special workers’-compensation rules for employment-related mental or nervous injuries. It would apply the same framework to them as other first responders for mental health claims.

Essentially, if you’re a 911 dispatcher and develop post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety or similar mental health injuries from traumatic calls, SB 774 would make it so you can get workers’ comp-covered treatment and that your claim is handled under the same special rules lawmakers already set for other first responders — without certain time-limit restrictions that typically apply to mental injury benefits.

Several dispatchers signaled or spoke in favor of the bill, as did representatives from the Florida Police Chiefs Association, Florida Sheriffs Association and Consolidated Dispatch Agency.

Jennifer Dana, a dispatcher with the Palm Beach Sheriff’s Office, noted that in a Senate analysis of SB 774, there’s a list of disturbing things first responders see and do on the job, from seeing dead children and witnessing murders to helping severely injured people, including those who commit suicide.

What it doesn’t include, she said, is that 911 dispatchers also witness those things.

“We’re seeing and hearing it,” she said. “We have the technology for people to livestream it now, so it’s a double-whammy for us, and we want to make sure we have the protections.”

Kim Powell, a licensed and clinical mental health counselor who oversees an employee behavioral health program at a 911 communications center in Leon County, detailed several examples of what dispatchers experience: a woman struggling to breathe while dying from a gunshot wound inflicted by her child’s father; an officer’s final words moments before his murder; the sound of a mother discovering her deceased infant; the 800 or so calls received in the wake of the Florida State University shooting last April.

“These are not isolated events; they are part of the job,” she said. “The trauma compounds over time with repeat exposure.”

St. Petersburg Republican Sen. Nick DiCeglie thanked Pizzo for carrying the bill and expressed gratitude to the “3,500 dispatchers” across Florida for their work.

“For me personally, (this) could be one of the most important bills that we have this Session because of the importance there is for your well-being and your quality of life,” he said.

Melbourne Republican Sen. Debbie Mayfield, who chairs the committee, echoed DiCeglie’s remarks.

Pizzo reminded the panel that four years ago, during COVID, a $280 million set-aside for payments to first responders and front-line workers did not extend to 911 dispatchers.

“They never stopped working,” he said, adding that Mayfield at the time acknowledged the oversight and pledged that the Legislature would get it right in the future. “So, it’s serendipitous that you were kind and gracious enough to put us on the agenda.”

SB 774 will next go to the Senate Appropriations Committee on Agriculture, Environment and General Government, after which it has one more stop before reaching a floor vote.

An identical bill (HB 451) by Republican Rep. Jeff Holcomb of Spring Hill awaits its first hearing in the House.



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Hillsborough College Trustees OK first step in Tampa Bay Rays stadium talks

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The Tampa Bay Rays’ search for a new home took a tangible step forward as the Hillsborough College Board of Trustees approved a nonbinding agreement that could ultimately shift the franchise away from St. Petersburg under its new ownership.

The Board voted to approve a memorandum of understanding (MOU) authorizing staff to negotiate with the Tampa Bay Rays over a potential stadium and mixed-use redevelopment at the college’s Dale Mabry Campus.

The agreement does not commit the college to the project and can be terminated by the Board at any time. Instead, it outlines key terms the parties would like to see in any future binding agreements, which would require separate Board approval at a later public meeting.

College officials characterized the MOU as the beginning of negotiations. Under the document, staff would begin drafting potential project agreements for Trustees to consider in the future, with an anticipated negotiation timeline of up to 180 days.

Rays CEO Ken Babby addressed Trustees during the meeting, calling the proposal an early milestone. He emphasized that the effort involves the college, the team, the state and local governments. Babby said the Rays are exploring a roughly 130-acre redevelopment anchored by a new stadium and an integrated college campus, alongside residential, commercial and entertainment uses. 

“As we envision this development, together in cooperation and partnership with the community and the college, we’ve been calling the campus portion of this work ‘Innovation Edge’ featuring Hillsborough College,” Babby said.

“It’ll be neighbored by, of course, what we envision to be ‘Champions Corridor,’ which we hope will be the mentioned home of the Tampa Bay Rays. Of course, this will be a mixed-use with residential, with commercial, and, as we’ve said, billions of dollars of economic impact to the region. … This is an incredible moment for our community.”

Public input was split. Supporters recognized the economic impact the project could have, while critics worried about the effect on housing affordability, in particular for college students.

Following the vote, Trustees acknowledged uncertainty among students, faculty and staff, particularly those based at the Dale Mabry campus, but stressed that the approval did not determine final outcomes.

“This is a major decision, and I truly hope that it leads Hillsborough College towards growth and advancement,” Student Trustee Nicolas Castellanos said. 

Trustee Michael Garcia echoed the sentiment.

“It’s a tremendous day for the future of Hillsborough College and for the future of Major League Baseball in the area and also for the future of the city of Tampa,” Garcia said.

Gov. Ron DeSantis publicly expressed support for the concept ahead of Tuesday’s meeting, saying it could benefit both the college and the region, while cautioning that details still need to be resolved.

“It could be very good for HCC, and I’ve met with the President about it. I think he’s excited about the possibility,” DeSantis said in Pinellas Park.

“Obviously, they’ve got to iron out details. But basically, we’re supportive of them pursuing that partnership because I think it could be good for them. I think it could be good for the state. But I definitely think it could be really good for this region.”

Also ahead of Tuesday’s meeting, Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told Florida Politics the city and Hillsborough County have been in ongoing discussions with the Tampa Bay Rays as the team explores long-term stadium options — including the potential Hillsborough College site. She emphasized that any future stadium proposal would require coordination among multiple governments and would be evaluated alongside existing contractual obligations related to other major sports facilities.

No timeline for construction, campus relocation or final land disposition was discussed Tuesday. College officials emphasized that any binding agreements would return to the Board of Trustees for approval at a future public meeting.

___

A.G. Gancarski and Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics contributed to this report.



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House panel approves bill to expand James Uthmeier’s power to target physicians

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A House subcommittee approved a bill to give Attorney General James Uthmeier expanded power to investigate health care professionals for taking care of transgender youth.

The Criminal Justice Subcommittee passed HB 743 with a 12-5 vote as Democrats and LGBTQ+ advocates rallied against it.

Under the bill, Uthmeier would be allowed to investigate and sue health care practitioners who give puberty blockers, hormones or other prescriptions to minors, or perform surgical procedures. Each violation could bring up to a $100,000 fine.

Uthmeier’s amplified authority would come after the state previously banned gender-affirming care for minors in 2023.

But Rep. Kelly Skidmore warned lawmakers that it was dangerous to give Uthmeier more power following the Hope Florida scandal.

“No disrespect to the folks who are here about gender-affirming care, but that’s not what this bill is about,” the Boca Raton Democrat said. “It is about giving one individual and maybe his successors authority that they don’t deserve and they cannot manage. They’ve proven that they cannot be trusted. This is a terrible bill.”

Uthmeier, then Gov. Ron DeSantis’ Chief of Staff, chaired a political committee that was funneled millions of dollars from a $10 million state Medicaid settlement. Critics have accused DeSantis and Uthmeier of misappropriating the money to use for political purposes. Uthmeier has denied wrongdoing.

But at Tuesday’s hearing, Rep. Taylor Yarkowsky argued Uthmeier is doing “unprecedented work” to protect kids. The lawmaker added that he is against minors transitioning until they are 18 years old and can legally decide for themselves.

“I understand this is a tough situation and I know that these feelings and emotions are real,” the Montverde Republican said. “But we have to uphold the principles and standards that made this country great, biblical, constitutional law and order at all costs. And sometimes that stings.”

HB 743 would also update the law to add that a health care practitioner who “aids or abets another health care practitioner” giving gender-affirming prescriptions or doing procedures to minors would now be charged with a third-degree felony. That could mean pharmacists filling prescriptions at Publix or Walgreens could potentially be charged for crimes, said Rep. Lauren Melo, the bill sponsor.

Melo said her bill comes as some minors are trying to skirt state law.

“What we’re seeing is there’s coding that’s actually being used that is becoming the problem, and hundreds of thousands of dollars is spent per child for them to transition and codes are being misrepresented where they are saying that it’s an indoctrination disorder instead of saying it’s a gender identity disorder,” Melo said.

Minors who have been receiving gender-affirming care continuously since May 2023 are exempt from state law, so the bill’s changes would only be applied to minors receiving care for the first time, the Naples Republican added.

Rep. Mike Gottlieb, who also believed the bill was giving Uthmeier too much power, said it could have other unintended consequences. The bill could scare doctors from prescribing medicine that helps women with bad menstruation symptoms — which has nothing to do with gender-affirming care, he said.

“You’re going to see doctors not wanting to prescribe those kinds of medications because they’re now subject to a $100,000 penalty,” the Davie Democrat said. “We really need to be cautious. I get where many of us sit in this battle. … We pass some of these laws, it’s a knee-jerk reaction. … We’re really not considering what we’re doing and some of the collateral harms that it’s having.”

He said he worried the bill would force more physicians to leave Florida.

But Melo argued her legislation was important because “unfortunately, what’s happening is there are physicians that are actually committing fraud.”

“This gives us an avenue to pursue and punish the people that are committing fraud against a minor child,” she said.

Shawna Flager, a mom advocating for her child who is transgender, criticized the bill during Tuesday’s debate.

“I feel like it introduces ambiguity. It also uses the government to create fear and intimidate our health care providers,” said Flager, of St. Augustine.



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