Connect with us

Politics

Florida TaxWatch reports Sunshine State could add 1 or 2 House seats under potential reapportionment

Published

on


A Florida TaxWatch analysis suggests Florida missed out on a U.S. House seat after the last census — and maybe two. But any effort to correct that could impact 13 other states, depending how the federal government treats noncitizens in a new count.

The Tallahassee-based fiscal watchdog released its latest report, “Census Briefing: Apportionment changes amid policy proposals,” which evaluates three different methods by which the federal government could revisit its 2020 census data.

The report focuses on different outlooks one can take in revisiting the population count in the country conducted five years ago, not one that a snap census might produce. Whether trying to correct an undercount in the state or by changing standards to only count legal residents or legal citizens, the result for Florida would be the same: an increase in political influence from the 2021 reapportionment of congressional votes.

“During the 2020 census, an estimated 750,000 Floridians failed to respond to their census survey, resulting in a statistically significant undercount of 3.48%. This undercount cost the State of Florida at least one additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and at least one additional vote in the Electoral College, and billions of dollars’ worth of grant funding throughout the decade,” said Florida TaxWatch President Dominic Calabro.

The report came out as Gov. Ron DeSantis and Florida legislative leaders move toward a mid-decade redistrict similar to other states, a process that would be significantly impacted if Florida has more than the 28 U.S. House districts assembled in its current map. But sources closely following the redistricting process wonder whether the process would result in the gains desired by Florida Republicans.

Shorted by any measure

Florida TaxWatch has already explored one scenario. A July report showed that inaccuracies in the 2020 census — most because of an undercounting of people in the state — resulted in Florida, Texas and Tennessee all being shorted one congressional seat, while Colorado, Minnesota and Rhode Island all erroneously obtained a seat.

Of note, the three wronged states, according to that analysis, were ones President Donald Trump carried in the 2024 Presidential Election. All three states that gained from the undercount went for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

But TaxWatch in its latest analysis considered two other scenarios. The first considered what would happen if federal officials reapportioned seats after removing all individuals counted by the census who are in the country illegally. Another went a step farther and excluded any noncitizens from state counts.

For the former, TaxWatch subtracted the counts of undocumented immigrants from each state and evaluated how House seats would be apportioned based on those totals. Under this model, Florida would actually gain two House seats, while Louisiana, Ohio, Texas and Virginia each gained one. California and New York would lose two seats, while Minnesota and Rhode Island would each lose one.

“These results may seem surprising, considering Florida has the fourth highest estimate of illegal immigrants based on 2019 estimates (772,000),” the report reads. “If illegal immigrants were excluded from the census count, however, the effects of illegal immigrants in other states limit the effects of Florida’s own illegal immigrant population on apportionment.”

Meg Cannan, Director of the Florida TaxWatch Census Institute, was the report’s lead author.

Of note, the only state Harris won in 2024 that gains influence in this scenario would be Virginia. Notably, Virginia currently has a Republican Governor, Glenn Youngkin, and will hold an election in November to elect his successor. Every state losing seats under this measure was carried by Harris and has a Democratic Governor.

This method of recalculating political pull seems especially important as it most closely adheres to President Donald Trump’s own desires. The President, who has expressed a desire for a new census to be conducted ahead of the Midterm Elections, has said an accurate tabulation should not count anyone in the nation illegally.

Finally, TaxWatch studied a scenario similar to that proposed by U.S. Rep. Randy Fine, an Atlantic Coast Republican, with his Correct the Count Act (HR 4884). Fine’s legislation calls for a new census in 2025, one that includes only legal citizens and excludes any noncitizen living in the country legally or illegally. While TaxWatch doesn’t speculate what a new census may produce, researchers apply the same exclusions to state counts based on 2020 census data.

Doing that would result in seven states gaining one seat in a reapportionment process: Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia. Again, Virginia would be the only state Harris carried in 2024, though Pennsylvania went for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, and most analysts consider it a swing state.

Those seats would be obtained at the expense of four Democrat-controlled states, with three coming from California, two from New York and one each from Minnesota and Rhode Island.

Now what?

The bottom line for TaxWatch is that Florida missed out in the last national population count, no matter what anyone feels about inclusion of immigrants. That shows Florida should begin efforts now to ensure an accurate count using any standards once the 2030 census rolls around, and if a Trump-desired census occurs before then.

“Florida’s census undercount not only cost the state at least one congressional seat but also resulted in a loss of federal funding that will range from $11 billion to $21 billion by the end of the decade.”

“Planning for the next census count is currently shrouded by questions of whom to count and when to count. The three scenarios outlined by Florida TaxWatch reveal the answer to perhaps the most critical question for Florida taxpayers — what is at stake for the State of Florida? To maintain a fair democratic republic, every state should count its residents in the same way,” the analysis reads.

DeSantis, for his part, pushed for months for a new census to be conducted, one that would recognize the population growth in Florida and contrition in states like California. But more recently, the Florida Governor said the federal government could at least “reevaluate” the 2020 census data and whether Florida deserves more clout.

But sources close to the redistricting process question if a new census could be completed and allow sufficient time for a legally defensible redraw of Florida’s political boundaries.

House Speaker Daniel Perez already announced he will appoint a select committee to evaluate Florida’s congressional boundaries this year. That will look at lines in the wake of a Florida Supreme Court ruling that said districts could not be drawn with race as a motivating factor even to comply with language in a “Fair Districts” amendment to the state constitution. The Florida Senate has remained quiet to date on its own plans.

But the decision whether Florida could be awarded additional congressional seats, and not simply redraw lines for the 28 districts in the state now, must be done at the federal level, and would necessarily impact other states.

Of note, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott this week signed a new congressional map based on 2020 census data but which creates more districts where a majority of voters supported Trump in the 2024 Presidential Election. A new census, or even a reapportionment giving Texas an additional seat, would make that new map out of date and force a reboot of what has been a controversial and contentious process in the Lone Star State.

But many are skeptical whether that would occur, or even if it would achieve the goals of national Republicans in creating more GOP-friendly U.S. House seats ahead of the 2026 elections. One Democratic operative in Washington noted that New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, has expressed a desire to draw more Democratic districts in that state.

But New York is bound by statutory restrictions similar to Florida’s Fair Districts amendment, which have made a mid-decade redistricting legally questionable than in Texas. But a new census or a new apportionment of U.S. House seats would eliminate any barriers and allow New York to draw a more Democratic map.

One Republican source in Florida who closely followed the redistricting process in 2022, when DeSantis pressured the Legislature to pass a more GOP-friendly map than lawmakers drafted, suggested there isn’t the same room for gains for the GOP that exist in a state like Texas. The source noted raising the number of seats where Republicans can win in a good year also boosts the number of places the GOP could lose in a difficult year.

Historically, Midterm Elections have punished the party in control of the White House. Only twice in U.S. history has a President who newly won the White House seen his party gain seats. The last time was in 2002, when Republicans gained seats in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks during former President George W. Bush’s first term.

TaxWatch, for its part, did not explore what might result from a new census being performed ahead of any reapportionment or redistricting process. Calabro in a statement suggested a new population count now would at least raise legal questions.

“Any change to the operations of the census count must withstand constitutional scrutiny, which is why Florida TaxWatch examined three scenarios under the current proposed changes — concluding that Florida would have gained at least one additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in every scenario,” he said.

If a reapportionment occurred based on existing census data, it still would likely prompt legal challenges from states losing seats. But the TaxWatch analysis suggests that even if a mid-decade reapportionment took place, Florida almost inevitably would gain political power as a result.


Post Views: 0



Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

Emily Duda Buckley family business gets philanthropic, gives $200K to cancel student lunch debt

Published

on


As part of its 100th anniversary celebrations, family-operated agriculture and real estate company DUDA has donated $200,000 to the nonprofit All for Lunch program to eliminate school lunch debt for students in Seminole County who qualify for free or reduced meals.

The company, which owns a suite of brands across the country in both agriculture and real estate development, includes leadership from Emily Duda Buckley, who is running for House District 38 to replace term-limited incumbent David Smith.

Duda Buckley is the senior manager for external affairs for DUDA, where she leads the company’s external engagement strategy with a primary focus on community relations, philanthropy and industry partnerships. She also monitors public policy and regulatory developments that may impact business operations.

“Education begins with meeting basic needs,” Duda Buckley said of the company’s donation to All for Lunch. “Clearing school lunch debt helps remove a quiet but very real barrier for students and families, and our family business is honored to support Seminole County schools in this meaningful way. When we support students, we support the entire community.”

The Duda family presented a check Tuesday to All for Lunch and Seminole County Public Schools, at Pine Crest Elementary.

“As we celebrate 100 years, it’s important for us to give back to the community that helped shape who we are,” said Tracy Duda Chapman, Chief Legal and Administrative Officer at DUDA.

“Our family firmly believes in sharing our blessings, and eliminating this lunch debt allows us to put those values into action and support Seminole County families in a tangible way. No child should carry the weight of a lunch debt, and we’re honored to help ensure students have access to the nutritious foods they need to optimize learning.”

The donation from DUDA will clear lunch balances for more than 3,600 Seminole County students who qualify for free meals and another 1,425 who receive reduced-price meals, collectively helping more than 5,000 students eliminate stress and focus on learning.

“DUDA’s donation made an immediate difference for thousands of students. When a partner steps forward at this scale, it allows us to lift a burden that many parents quietly struggle with. This gift didn’t just erase debt — it offers relief for families navigating tight household budgets month-to-month,” All for Lunch founder and Executive Director Alessandra Ferrara-Miller said.

It’s estimated that 1 in 6 kids in Central Florida face hunger on any given day, and Seminole County school leaders say this type of philanthropic support is a huge relief to those students and their families.

“The extraordinary generosity of DUDA exemplifies that community partnerships make a significant impact on the lives of our students and families,” Seminole County Public Schools Superintendent Serita Beamon said.

“This support provides a fresh start for many of our families and helps to ensure students and their families can focus on learning. On behalf of our students, families, and staff, thank you for making such a meaningful difference.”

And Seminole County Schools are also using the Duda family philanthropy as a tool to attract additional donors. All for Lunch has established a special donation page in honor of DUDA’s 100th anniversary contribution, allowing anyone in Central Florida to chip in to make a difference.

Emily Duda Buckley is one of three Republicans currently vying for the HD 38 seat, and she’s off to an early lead, with nearly $134,000 raised. The other two Republicans in the race are far behind, with Marcus Hyatt banking more than $35,000 and Austyn Cydney Spell hasn’t reported any fundraising.



Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

Have Democrats given up on the Pinellas County Commission?

Published

on


Three Pinellas County Commission seats are up for election this year, and Republicans incumbents are seeking re-election in all of them. Those office-holders appear relatively safe if 2025 campaign finance reports are any indication.

Brian Scott, who represents the countywide District 2 seat, is so far unopposed. Qualifying in the races runs June 8-12, so there is still time for a challenger to emerge. However, any would-be challenger would enter the race at an immediate funding disadvantage, with Scott raising more than $94,000 as of the end of 2025.

The other two incumbents facing re-election this year — Dave Eggers in District 4 and Kathleen Peters in District 6 — have drawn challengers, though neither have posted significant fundraising activity since entering the race.

There isn’t a Democrat challenging Eggers so far, but he faces intraparty opposition from fellow Republican Tony Ringelspaugh. Ringelspaugh, who describes himself as retired, raised just $1,000 since entering the race in October, and half of that was a contribution from himself to his campaign. As of Dec. 31, he hadn’t spent any of it.

Eggers, meanwhile, has raised nearly $19,000 and retains about $13,000. It’s a small sum compared to fundraising activity in past Pinellas County Commission races — note Scott’s nearly six-figure haul for a so far unopposed race — but it’s still enough to create a wide funding gap between his opponent.

And Ringelspaugh doesn’t appear to be actively campaigning at this point. His most recent post to his campaign Facebook page was on Oct. 15 announcing his bid. Ringelspaugh does not appear to have a campaign website, either.

Eggers also has strong institutional support, including recent nods from U.S. Reps. Gus Bilirakis and Anna Paulina Luna.

Eggers faced intraparty opposition four years ago, but won re-election that year with 68% of the vote. If no Democrat enters the race, and no one files as a write-in to close the Primary, the GOP Primary will be open to all voters.

District 4 covers the northernmost parts of Pinellas County, including Palm Harbor, East Lake, Tarpon Springs, Dunedin and Safety Harbor.

Peters is the top fundraiser among incumbents up for re-election this year, with $103,000 raised as of Dec. 31. Her opponent, architect David Glenn Jr., a Democrat, has collected less than $2,300.

While Glenn entered the race in December and only had three weeks of fundraising to report, his early activity doesn’t show a lot of momentum. All of his funds came from the candidate himself. Still, he has been at least somewhat active on social media and in the community, speaking at local Democratic clubs. His campaign website, though, doesn’t list any upcoming events.

Glenn previously said he was running to disrupt what he describes as entrenched county leadership. His platform emphasizes land use and development policy, arguing the need for more density and carefully planned growth. He also favors increased support for public transportation and affordable housing, and wants to crack down on nuisance short-term rental properties, among other priorities.

But getting that message to voters amid a six-figure funding deficit will be a challenge, and like her colleagues on the dais, Peters will have plenty of support from the county’s donor class.

Peter’s fourth-quarter haul, which was nearly $40,000, included top $1,000 donations from a number of local businesses and interests, including Marine construction companies Speeler Helicals, Bayside Dredging, Tampa Bay Marine Contractors, Haven Dock & Marine, Decks & Docks Lumber, Waterfront Property Services, and BCJ 2.

She also received top donations from a couple of bowling alleys, and from interests in real estate development, insurance, restaurant and automotive industries. The political committee supporting state Rep. Linda Chaney cut a $1,000 check in the fourth quarter, as did former state Rep. Jackie Toledo, both Republicans, among other donors.

First elected in 2018 with 60% of the vote over Democrat Amy Kedron, Peters was re-elected in 2022 without opposition.

Taken collectively, the three County Commission seats up for election this year may prove to be sleepy affairs unless current challengers step up campaign efforts.

The lack of competitive races so far may be a result of Pinellas County’s position as an increasingly red region. For Scott, countywide voter registration favors Republicans by about 47,000 voters. In Eggers’ District 4, Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 29,000 voters, and Democrats trail Republicans in Peters’ District 6 by about 23,000 voters.



Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

Florida Council of 100 recommends major upgrades in state severe weather prep

Published

on


A new report on Florida’s resilience to natural disasters concludes there are key challenges ahead for the state, as well as opportunities to modernize infrastructure to help streamline recovery after an emergency.

The Florida Council of 100 (FC 100), made up of of business leaders who analyze some of the biggest challenges facing the state, published a report called “Resilience Reimagined: Modern Policy and Innovation for a Stronger Florida.”

The document analyzes how long-term economic competitiveness can expand in the face of severe weather endemic to the state. The report concludes that even as hurricanes, flooding and other severe weather events are part of Florida living, resilience can become an economic component as well as an environmental effort.

“Florida’s future will be defined by how well we prepare for and respond to storms and flooding,” said George S. LeMieux, Chair of FC 100. “Resilience is not just about repairing damage. It is about protecting our economy, safeguarding communities, and ensuring Florida remains one of the most competitive places in the world to live and do business.”

Some of the key findings in the report, published Tuesday, include warnings that failure to invest in storm preparedness will result in lost economic activity, business closings and disruption to the job market, while insurance costs could rise. Long-term investments in recovery plans can reduce losses and accelerate recovery after major weather events.

Beyond outlining the issues that could damage Florida’s business sector, the FC 100 report provides several recommendations, including:

— Streamlining post-disaster recovery and permitting to reduce delays and uncertainty

— Hardening infrastructure and utilities to limit outages and economic disruption

— Modernizing Florida’s building code to reflect evolving flood, wind, and energy risks

— Incentivizing resilience investments by homeowners and communities

— Supporting resilience innovation and commercialization to grow new industries and jobs

“The choices we make now will shape Florida’s quality of life and economic strength for generations,” said Michael Simas, President and CEO of the FC 100. “This report offers a clear path forward and an opportunity for Florida to define itself not by its exposure to storms, but by its ability to thrive despite them.”

The FC 100 has more than 200 companies in its membership that represent more than 1.3 million workers in the state.



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © Miami Select.