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Florida TaxWatch reports Sunshine State could add 1 or 2 House seats under potential reapportionment

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A Florida TaxWatch analysis suggests Florida missed out on a U.S. House seat after the last census — and maybe two. But any effort to correct that could impact 13 other states, depending how the federal government treats noncitizens in a new count.

The Tallahassee-based fiscal watchdog released its latest report, “Census Briefing: Apportionment changes amid policy proposals,” which evaluates three different methods by which the federal government could revisit its 2020 census data.

The report focuses on different outlooks one can take in revisiting the population count in the country conducted five years ago, not one that a snap census might produce. Whether trying to correct an undercount in the state or by changing standards to only count legal residents or legal citizens, the result for Florida would be the same: an increase in political influence from the 2021 reapportionment of congressional votes.

“During the 2020 census, an estimated 750,000 Floridians failed to respond to their census survey, resulting in a statistically significant undercount of 3.48%. This undercount cost the State of Florida at least one additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and at least one additional vote in the Electoral College, and billions of dollars’ worth of grant funding throughout the decade,” said Florida TaxWatch President Dominic Calabro.

The report came out as Gov. Ron DeSantis and Florida legislative leaders move toward a mid-decade redistrict similar to other states, a process that would be significantly impacted if Florida has more than the 28 U.S. House districts assembled in its current map. But sources closely following the redistricting process wonder whether the process would result in the gains desired by Florida Republicans.

Shorted by any measure

Florida TaxWatch has already explored one scenario. A July report showed that inaccuracies in the 2020 census — most because of an undercounting of people in the state — resulted in Florida, Texas and Tennessee all being shorted one congressional seat, while Colorado, Minnesota and Rhode Island all erroneously obtained a seat.

Of note, the three wronged states, according to that analysis, were ones President Donald Trump carried in the 2024 Presidential Election. All three states that gained from the undercount went for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

But TaxWatch in its latest analysis considered two other scenarios. The first considered what would happen if federal officials reapportioned seats after removing all individuals counted by the census who are in the country illegally. Another went a step farther and excluded any noncitizens from state counts.

For the former, TaxWatch subtracted the counts of undocumented immigrants from each state and evaluated how House seats would be apportioned based on those totals. Under this model, Florida would actually gain two House seats, while Louisiana, Ohio, Texas and Virginia each gained one. California and New York would lose two seats, while Minnesota and Rhode Island would each lose one.

“These results may seem surprising, considering Florida has the fourth highest estimate of illegal immigrants based on 2019 estimates (772,000),” the report reads. “If illegal immigrants were excluded from the census count, however, the effects of illegal immigrants in other states limit the effects of Florida’s own illegal immigrant population on apportionment.”

Meg Cannan, Director of the Florida TaxWatch Census Institute, was the report’s lead author.

Of note, the only state Harris won in 2024 that gains influence in this scenario would be Virginia. Notably, Virginia currently has a Republican Governor, Glenn Youngkin, and will hold an election in November to elect his successor. Every state losing seats under this measure was carried by Harris and has a Democratic Governor.

This method of recalculating political pull seems especially important as it most closely adheres to President Donald Trump’s own desires. The President, who has expressed a desire for a new census to be conducted ahead of the Midterm Elections, has said an accurate tabulation should not count anyone in the nation illegally.

Finally, TaxWatch studied a scenario similar to that proposed by U.S. Rep. Randy Fine, an Atlantic Coast Republican, with his Correct the Count Act (HR 4884). Fine’s legislation calls for a new census in 2025, one that includes only legal citizens and excludes any noncitizen living in the country legally or illegally. While TaxWatch doesn’t speculate what a new census may produce, researchers apply the same exclusions to state counts based on 2020 census data.

Doing that would result in seven states gaining one seat in a reapportionment process: Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia. Again, Virginia would be the only state Harris carried in 2024, though Pennsylvania went for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, and most analysts consider it a swing state.

Those seats would be obtained at the expense of four Democrat-controlled states, with three coming from California, two from New York and one each from Minnesota and Rhode Island.

Now what?

The bottom line for TaxWatch is that Florida missed out in the last national population count, no matter what anyone feels about inclusion of immigrants. That shows Florida should begin efforts now to ensure an accurate count using any standards once the 2030 census rolls around, and if a Trump-desired census occurs before then.

“Florida’s census undercount not only cost the state at least one congressional seat but also resulted in a loss of federal funding that will range from $11 billion to $21 billion by the end of the decade.”

“Planning for the next census count is currently shrouded by questions of whom to count and when to count. The three scenarios outlined by Florida TaxWatch reveal the answer to perhaps the most critical question for Florida taxpayers — what is at stake for the State of Florida? To maintain a fair democratic republic, every state should count its residents in the same way,” the analysis reads.

DeSantis, for his part, pushed for months for a new census to be conducted, one that would recognize the population growth in Florida and contrition in states like California. But more recently, the Florida Governor said the federal government could at least “reevaluate” the 2020 census data and whether Florida deserves more clout.

But sources close to the redistricting process question if a new census could be completed and allow sufficient time for a legally defensible redraw of Florida’s political boundaries.

House Speaker Daniel Perez already announced he will appoint a select committee to evaluate Florida’s congressional boundaries this year. That will look at lines in the wake of a Florida Supreme Court ruling that said districts could not be drawn with race as a motivating factor even to comply with language in a “Fair Districts” amendment to the state constitution. The Florida Senate has remained quiet to date on its own plans.

But the decision whether Florida could be awarded additional congressional seats, and not simply redraw lines for the 28 districts in the state now, must be done at the federal level, and would necessarily impact other states.

Of note, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott this week signed a new congressional map based on 2020 census data but which creates more districts where a majority of voters supported Trump in the 2024 Presidential Election. A new census, or even a reapportionment giving Texas an additional seat, would make that new map out of date and force a reboot of what has been a controversial and contentious process in the Lone Star State.

But many are skeptical whether that would occur, or even if it would achieve the goals of national Republicans in creating more GOP-friendly U.S. House seats ahead of the 2026 elections. One Democratic operative in Washington noted that New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, has expressed a desire to draw more Democratic districts in that state.

But New York is bound by statutory restrictions similar to Florida’s Fair Districts amendment, which have made a mid-decade redistricting legally questionable than in Texas. But a new census or a new apportionment of U.S. House seats would eliminate any barriers and allow New York to draw a more Democratic map.

One Republican source in Florida who closely followed the redistricting process in 2022, when DeSantis pressured the Legislature to pass a more GOP-friendly map than lawmakers drafted, suggested there isn’t the same room for gains for the GOP that exist in a state like Texas. The source noted raising the number of seats where Republicans can win in a good year also boosts the number of places the GOP could lose in a difficult year.

Historically, Midterm Elections have punished the party in control of the White House. Only twice in U.S. history has a President who newly won the White House seen his party gain seats. The last time was in 2002, when Republicans gained seats in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks during former President George W. Bush’s first term.

TaxWatch, for its part, did not explore what might result from a new census being performed ahead of any reapportionment or redistricting process. Calabro in a statement suggested a new population count now would at least raise legal questions.

“Any change to the operations of the census count must withstand constitutional scrutiny, which is why Florida TaxWatch examined three scenarios under the current proposed changes — concluding that Florida would have gained at least one additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in every scenario,” he said.

If a reapportionment occurred based on existing census data, it still would likely prompt legal challenges from states losing seats. But the TaxWatch analysis suggests that even if a mid-decade reapportionment took place, Florida almost inevitably would gain political power as a result.


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Florida shouldn’t gamble with patient safety on false promises

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Florida lawmakers are once again being asked to expand unsupervised anesthesia practice, this time under the familiar banner of “access,” “cost savings,” and “modernization.” We are told this is inevitable — that “48 states already have similar laws,” and Florida is simply behind the curve.

That claim collapses under even minimal scrutiny.

Let’s be clear about what is being proposed: allowing Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists to practice independently, without physician anesthesiologist supervision, in all settings. This is not a minor regulatory tweak. It is a fundamental change in how anesthesia care — one of the riskiest aspects of modern medicine — is delivered.

If lawmakers want to make policy based on evidence rather than talking points, three facts matter most.

Physician-led anesthesia care is the safest model.

Anesthesia is not just about “putting patients to sleep.” It involves managing complex physiology, responding to sudden, life-threatening emergencies, and caring for patients with multiple comorbidities — often when things go wrong quickly. Physicians who practice anesthesiology complete four years of medical school, four years of residency, and often additional fellowship training. That depth of training matters when seconds count.

The safest anesthesia outcomes consistently occur in physician-led teams, where anesthesiologists work alongside Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists. Team-based care maximizes patient safety by matching expertise to the complexity of each patient’s care. Eliminating physician oversight does not improve safety; it removes a critical layer of protection.

Florida should be strengthening team-based care — not dismantling it.

Unsupervised anesthesia is not more cost-effective.

Proponents often claim that removing physician supervision lowers costs. The data do not support this. Medicare pays the same for anesthesia services regardless of whether a physician anesthesiologist is involved. Further, having an anesthesiologist present to manage complications helps control costs by reducing hospital stays and downstream medical expenses.

The cheapest anesthesia is the one that goes right the first time — and the safest model is also the most cost-effective in the long run.

These laws do not help rural communities.

This is where rhetoric diverges most sharply from reality. State “opt-out” laws allowing unsupervised anesthesia have been studied for more than a decade. The conclusion is consistent: they do not increase access to anesthesia services in rural or underserved areas.

Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists, like all health care professionals, tend to practice where hospitals are well-resourced and professionally supportive. Opt-out states did not see a meaningful expansion of anesthesia services in rural hospitals. Workforce shortages remained unchanged.

If unsupervised practice were the solution, rural access problems would already be solved. They are not.

Supporters now claim that nearly every state has “similar” laws — a creative redefinition that lumps together wildly different regulatory frameworks. Supervised practice, delegated authority, limited opt-outs, and emergency exceptions are being counted as “unsupervised care.” Florida should not make major patient-safety decisions based on inflated numbers and fuzzy definitions.

This proposal is not about modernization. It is not about rural access. And it is not about saving money. It is about replacing the safest, most cost-effective anesthesia model with one that offers no proven benefit — and real risk.

Florida’s patients deserve policies grounded in evidence, not exaggeration. Lawmakers should reject unsupervised anesthesia and instead invest in physician-led, team-based care that puts safety first — every time.

___


Rebekah Bernard, M.D., is a family physician in Fort Myers and a Board member of Physicians for Patient Protection.



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Adam Anderson’s push for more genetic counselors in Florida clears first hurdle

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Rep. Adam Anderson has successfully ushered through its first committee stop legislation that would address a shortage of genetic counselors and strengthen the state’s capacity for advanced medical care and genetic research.

Anderson’s bill (HB 1115) cleared the Careers and Workforce Subcommittee. It would establish the Genetic Counseling Education Enhancement Grant Program within Florida’s State University System to support the development of American Board of Genetic Counseling-accredited graduate-level genetic counseling programs to eliminate Florida’s status as a genetic counseling desert.

“The need for health care professionals in the Sunshine State cannot be understated,” Anderson said.

“But specialization is the true hurdle for families praying for the next innovation that will help their child. Genetic counselors guiding difficult diagnoses are in short supply. However, Florida aims to right-set our specialization efforts at the intersection between education and employment. We’re standing by Florida families and those students willing to take the next step.”

With just 179 licensed genetic counselors in the state, patient demand is not being met. Genetic counselors guide families facing complex genetic diagnoses, and they serve as essential partners in research, innovation and precision medicine.

Sen. Danny Burgess is sponsoring an identical measure (SB 1376) in the upper chamber, though it has not yet been heard in committee. Still, he celebrated initial support for the measure in the House.

“This is legislation every Floridian can get behind,” Burgess said. “Developing our workforce is step one, but retaining specialized genetic counselors in the State of Florida to help Floridians is the entire picture. Aid shouldn’t be a state away. This grant program realizes that comfort and care for Florida families should be available within Florida.”

The bill would allow grant funds to be used to recruit and retain qualified faculty, provide financial aid to students, and establish or expand clinical rotations required to obtain a master’s degree in genetic counseling. The funds would be barred from use for general administrative costs, new facility construction and non-program-related activities.

Participating universities under the bill would be required to maintain detailed compliance records and submit annual reports on expenditures and program outcomes. The state Board of Governors would then compile the information from reports into a statewide submission.

“The progress Representative Anderson has ignited is contagious. Florida is on the cusp of developing a genetic counseling workforce that meets a crucial need for families facing uncertainty,” said Dr. Pradeep Bhide, Director of the Florida State University Institute for Pediatric Rare Diseases. “FSU is all for it.”

Under Bhide’s leadership, the Institute is developing a new master’s degree program in genetic counseling.

Currently, the University of South Florida is the only state school with an active genetic counseling program, with FSU’s program awaiting approval.

“New education programs are what drive the innovations and patient care required to address complex genetic issues. Rep. Anderson and the State of Florida have time and time again seen the value in the educational framework that leads to great progress,” said Charles J. Lockwood, executive vice president at USF Health and dean of the USF Health Morsani College of Medicine.

“USF Health has long understood the need for genetic counselors in Florida, and we are excited at the prospect of further collaboration with Florida’s other universities.”

Anderson’s bill heads next to the Higher Education Budget Subcommittee. If approved by the full Legislature and signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, the measure would take effect July 1.



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Miami Beach committee leadership reshuffle excludes women from every top post

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Miami Beach Mayor Steven Meiner unveiled his new committee appointments for 2026, and there’s a commonality among them: no women Chairs.

In all three of the city’s Commission committees, which are appointed solely by the Mayor and composed exclusively of City Commission members, men hold the top post.

That’s despite three of the Commission’s six non-Mayor members being women.

On the Land Use and Sustainability Committee, Meiner elevated previous Vice Chair David Suarez to Chair and demoted prior Chair Alex Fernandez to Vice Chair.

He did the same with the Public Safety and Neighborhood Quality of Life Committee, where Fernandez rose from Vice Chair to Chair, and Laura Dominguez switched to Vice Chair.

Only on the Finance and Economic Resiliency Committee did last year’s arrangement remain the same, with Joseph Magazine keeping his Chairmanship, with Suarez staying on as the panel’s second-in-command.

Commissioner Tanya Bhatt holds membership posts in two of the three committees and is an alternate member for a third, in which Monica Matteo-Salinas — who won election to the City Commission in December — serves as a member.

Florida Politics contacted Meiner, Bhatt, Dominguez and Matteo-Salinas for comment, but received no response by press time. We also reached out to Lynette Long, who chairs the Miami Beach Commission for Women, but she did not immediately respond.

Suarez said by text that he doesn’t believe Meiner’s appointments have anything to do with gender.

“Commission committee assignments rotate and are based on merit and experience, and suggesting otherwise leans into a false narrative where none exists,” he said. “Women have long chaired committees — both Commission committees and other City committees — and continue to serve today as chairs and vice chairs on both.”

Magazine said he looks forward to continuing his work leading on economic resiliency.

“Given my long financial background in the private sector and our success in the last two budget seasons, I’m happy to be appointed Chair again,” he said. He declined to comment on other appointments.

Fernandez said he is proud of the record he built as Chair of the Land Use and Sustainability Committee, which secured critical exemptions from the 2024 Resiliency and Safe Structures Act, helped preserve architectural design standards under the Live Local Act and modernized historic preservation regulations, among other accomplishments.

“Serving as Chair of the Land Use Committee was something I was proud of and I will continue to be proud of the committee’s record of accomplishments during my tenure,” he wrote in a statement that did not touch on the women-as-Chairs subject.

Last year, Dominguez and Matteo-Salinas each defeated opponents who participated in a campaign event for Meiner also attended by one of the officers who questioned resident-activist Raquel Pacheco at her home last week after she wrote disparagingly about the Mayor on Facebook.

The visit has since made national headlines.



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