Florida State enters 2026 with four bold predictions shaping a pivotal season
Florida State heads into the 2026 season with pressure mounting after a 5‑7 finish in 2025 and 17 losses over the past two years. With ACC media days approaching and expectations shifting, several storylines define what could be a turning‑point season for Mike Norvell and the Seminoles.
Seminoles poised for another unexpected road win
Florida State stunned Alabama last season with a 31‑17 upset in Tallahassee. The rematch in Tuscaloosa arrives early in 2026, and timing may favor the Seminoles. Alabama returns only three offensive starters and is projected to start freshman quarterback Keelon Russell. Catching the Crimson Tide before Russell gains experience gives Florida State a realistic chance at another surprise win on the road.
Rushing attack remains a strength
The Seminoles finished 11th nationally in rushing offense last season, averaging 218 yards per game and scoring 31 rushing touchdowns. That production should continue with the addition of former Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner, who joins Ousmane Kromah and Samuel Singleton. Singleton averaged seven yards per carry in 2025. Florida State’s rebuilt but experienced offensive line features right guard Nate Pabst, an all‑MAC performer, and Xavier Chaplin, both with NFL‑level traits.
Quarterback change likely by mid‑season
Norvell named Ashton Daniels the starter after spring practice, but ball security remains a concern. Daniels has thrown 22 interceptions against 24 touchdowns across four seasons at Stanford and Auburn, including a 2024 campaign with more interceptions than touchdowns. JUCO All‑American Malachi Marshall is a strong candidate to take over. Marshall led Iowa Western to a national title with over 2,800 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a passer efficiency rating of 179.1. His production may be too strong for Norvell to ignore.
Eight wins—but Norvell does not survive
Experts project Florida State’s 2026 win total at 6.5, but the Seminoles could overachieve and reach eight wins. Losses are expected against SMU, Louisville, Miami, and Florida. Despite improvement, Norvell’s tenure may still end after the season. Seventeen losses over two years and continued inconsistency could push the administration toward a new direction. The 2026 season is critical as Florida State attempts to reclaim its winning identity.
