Florida Politics’ runner-up for 2025 Politician of the Year: Byron Donalds

At the start of 2025, a looming race for Governor spurred speculation about who would run. But heading into 2026, nobody appears as well-positioned as U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds.

With an endorsement from President Donald Trump in his pocket and upward of $40 million deposited in the bank, the Naples Republican may be better positioned for a run than any candidate for Governor — certainly any Republican — ever. Political consultant Ryan Smith boasted in an end-of-year campaign memo called Donalds “the most dominant gubernatorial candidate in Florida history.”

Donalds sounded strong as he launched his campaign in March from a restaurant in Bonita Springs.

“My plan for Florida is bold and clear,” Donalds told the crowd. “Fix the insurance prices, build new roads, finish restoring the Everglades. Make Florida the financial capital of the world, and ensure our kids master math, reading, writing and reasoning.”

That doesn’t mean he scared off any competition. House Speaker Paul Renner, who served alongside Donalds in the Florida House, threw his hat in the ring in September. Azoria CEO James Fishback also made a splash online as he openly courted groypers and the far right. Meanwhile, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings and former U.S. Rep. David Jolly both filed to compete for the Democratic nomination.

But in a state that leans far more Republican than when Gov. Ron DeSantis first won office by a recount margin, the GOP Primary feels like the race to watch — assuming it’s not already over.

“Byron isn’t just leading the Florida Governor’s race, he is dominating it in unprecedented fashion,” said Matt Hurley, a Naples-based political consultant. “President Trump is behind him completely and totally. His financial war chest is growing at a rate few can truly fathom (wait until you see what he raises in 2026).”

Other political developments also served Donalds. DeSantis appointed former Attorney General Ashley Moody, the top vote-getter in Florida in 2018 and 2022, to the U.S. Senate. Former Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, meanwhile, won a Special Election for Congress. That leaves the only statewide candidates who boasted victories in 2018 and 2022, besides term-limited DeSantis, focused on new jobs in Washington. Though once rumored as gubernatorial hopefuls, both now appear content on the Hill.

Other potential contenders, such as Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, would have a higher hill to climb with late entries into the race. While not insurmountable, most now expect Simpson to seek re-election, and more are suggesting Collins look for his own route to Congress (though he denies interest). First Lady Casey DeSantis, the only contender whom polls have shown as competitive with Donalds, has only shown decreasing interest in a run herself

Meanwhile, Donalds has a distinct “been there, done that” aura regarding Washington. In fewer than three terms, he managed to build a strong relationship with Trump, earn the trust of leadership and even court significant support for bids for Speaker — twice.

Lawmakers from Southwest Florida feel confident the Naples wealth manager will soon move into the Governor’s mansion.

“He’s done a great job as a State Representative and as a Congressman, and he’ll do a great job as our Governor,” said state Rep. Adam Botana, a Bonita Springs Republican. “He needs to keep working, and I look forward to seeing him in the Governor’s Mansion.”

That doesn’t mean he lacks detractors or skeptics. An association with U.S. Rep. Cory Mills, a New Smyrna Beach Republican who spoke at Donalds’ campaign launch before a series of scandals surrounded him, led to Donalds recently distancing himself from a onetime ally. DeSantis has yet to weigh in on who he wants to succeed him in office, but many of the Governor’s online supporters have heavily critiqued Donalds for shifting positions.

But with ties in Washington and Tallahassee, support from establishment and MAGA leaders, and made-for-cable news charisma, Donalds appears on track to win Florida’s biggest race next year and become Florida’s first Black Governor.

“He maintains an insurmountable polling dominance in the primary, and massive leads in every single hypothetical general election matchup. Regardless of how you feel about him personally, he maintains an unbreakable stronghold on the future of Florida politics,” Hurley said.

“The ‘competition’ is scrambling in his rearview while he’s charging toward the Governor’s mansion. He is simply in an unstoppable position as 2025 comes to a close. It will take an act of God to stop his momentum.”