Former state Rep. Joel Rudman’s congressional ambitions didn’t pan out. But eight Republicans jumped at the opening that his departure created in House District 3.

A Republican Primary on Tuesday will determine which candidate in a crowded field becomes the Republican nominee. Former Okaloosa County Commissioner Nathan Boyles and former Jay Mayor Shon Owens have each spent more than six figures on the seat, with Assistant State Attorney Hayden Hudson also pulling together a respectable number of contributions and endorsements.

But other contenders in the race — Okaloosa County Republican Club President Rena McQuaig, former Okaloosa County Commission candidate Wade Merritt, Assistant State Attorney Joshua Sik, mental health advocate Cindy Smith and Milton veteran Jamie Lee Wells — have all worked the trail and hope to emerge from a fractured field.

The winner of the GOP Primary will advance to a June 10 General Special Election against Democrat Dondre Wise.

Boyles has raised the most outside contributions in the race, reporting more than $151,000 in contributions and spending nearly $111,000 as of March 27.

He has also secured endorsements from Jimmy Patronis, the front-runner for a congressional Special Election in Florida’s Panhandle the same day as the Primary, and from major lobbies in Tallahassee including the Florida Chamber of Commerce and Americans for Prosperity. Boyles has run on a law-and-order message.

“We are a nation of laws and we must be an active partner in working with President (Donald) Trump and law enforcement in securing our southern border, ending taxpayer incentives that encourage illegal immigration, and deport illegal aliens caught in Florida,” Boyles said. “We must always stand for the rule of law and keep our communities safe and stand up for Americans first, and always.”

Owens, meanwhile, has pulled in about $80,000 in contributions and supplemented that with $41,000 in candidate loans. As of the last reporting period, he had spent more than any candidate in the race, upward of $120,000.

Owens had to resign his seat as Mayor in order to run, and left that office Friday. He also announced endorsements from former U.S. Rep. Jeff Miller and most of the Santa Rosa County Commission, with the race characterized in local media as an Okaloosa-Santa Rosa turf war, even as Owens’ own residency has been called into question, something he addressed in a campaign video.

“I’m standing here at my home in Jay, the one that I built with my own bare hands 25 years ago,” Owens said.

“I’ve spent my entire life in Jay. As you can see, I live right behind Pittman building supply, which brings me to the second lie, that I’m against Second Amendment rights. I’m standing here inside Pittman Building Supply, where I’ve legally sold firearms to the community under this federal firearms license I’ve held for the past 15 years. The third lie questions my stance on illegal immigration and E-Verify. I’m standing here in front of the office of two companies I own. Both of these companies are legally required to use E-Verify, and we follow that requirement strictly.”

Rudman, for his part, endorsed Hudson. So has former U.S. Rep. Ted Yoho, an Ocala Republican who used to represent part of Northwest Florida. Hudson has spent more than $31,000 on the race, and reported more than $27,000 in contributions plus a $10,000 candidate loan to fuel his candidacy.

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The eyes of political viewers across the country will be trained Tuesday night on a congressional race in Northeast Florida. There, polls show Republican Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil locked in a neck-and-neck race to succeed former U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz.

That’s shocking in itself, as voters in Florida’s 6th Congressional District just in November backed Donald Trump by 30 percentage points. Waltz in November won his re-election campaign with 66.5% of the vote.

Republicans hold a major advantage in the race as far as voter registration is concerned. With voter rolls closed ahead of the Special Election, CD 6 had more than 273,000 Republicans registered, compared to just over 142,000 Democrats, while another more than 143,000 other voters.

But Democrats have turned lingering resentment over the 2024 Presidential Election into a massive haul in political contributions. Weil said he has raised more than $10 million for the race, mostly in small donations from across the county. By contrast, Fine has underperformed in fundraising, reporting less than $1 million in contributions, according to his latest fundraising report.

But can a middle school math teacher with a “D” by his name beat a sitting state Senator running with Trump’s endorsement in a deep red district? That’s a question the political world will have answered after polls close at 7 p.m. Tuesday.

“For the last four months our campaign has been in the field, knocking doors and engaging with new and current voters,” Weil said. “As we approach election day, our efforts have been reflected in what we’ve seen in the early vote, because we remain focused on what truly matters to the voters. I am dedicated to protecting Social Security, Medicare and lowering costs, ensuring that our seniors and families have the support they need to thrive.

“I’m grateful for the hundreds of thousands of Floridians and regular Americans who still believe in a better future. It’s that grassroots energy that is going to defeat career politician Randy Fine and the huge corporations and special interests that own him and his campaign.”

Fine, though, remains confident the voters in this district remain supportive of Trump’s agenda, and that the final election results will reflect as much. He said the election comes down to some easy choices for conservative voters.

“Donald Trump-candidate vs. Bernie Sanders-candidate. Self-made businessman vs guy skimming his own campaign funds,” Fine said. “Republicans need to vote. If they do, it’s going to be Fine.”

Ground game

When it comes to voter turnout, Democrats have been able to keep things much tighter, according to data tracked by analyst Michael Pruser. As of Monday morning, 19,095 mail-in ballots from Democrats had been received by elections officials compared to 17,562 ballots from Republicans; another 7.519 ballots were received from voters not registered with either party.

After two weeks of in-person early voting wrapped on Saturday, Republicans have closed the turnout gap and then some. In total, 29,841 Republicans across the district cast in-person ballots across the six counties in CD 6, compared to 19,012 Democrats and 7,906 others.

But that still means more than a quarter of all Democrats eligible to vote in the election already turned out before polls even opened on Election Day on Tuesday. By comparison, less than 16% of Republicans had turned out, and Democrats have reason to believe many of those are disaffected voters upset at Trump or who just don’t like Fine.

In fact, one of the Republicans who once represented CD 6 in Congress now serves as Governor of Florida. Fine and Gov. Ron DeSantis have feuded for more than a year over a range of issues, with things taking a notably sour turn after the Palm Bay Republican switched a presidential endorsement from DeSantis to Trump in 2023. When asked about the difference in Democratic and Republican turnout in CD 6 last week, DeSantis quickly pegged blame on “the specific candidate running in that race.”

Nevertheless, the state party reports members of DeSantis’ political team have been knocking on doors in CD 6 ahead of the election. Additionally, the Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) has managed 200,000 volunteer phone calls supporting candidates in this Special Election and another also happening in Florida’s 1st Congressional District. The party will staff tents at most high-traffic precincts.

“Phone calls are still going out from across the state to voters saying if you haven’t gone out and voted, it’s an important election in CD 6,” said Bill Helmich, RPOF Executive Director.

But Florida Democratic Party (FDP) officials also have put resources into the field to back Weil.

“We’re going to run through the tape,” said Matt Dailey, FDP Deputy Communications Director. “We are making sure we reach out to every Democratic voter.”

National attention

The interest in the race proved wide enough to attract Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin to canvas the district alongside FDP Chair Nikki Fried. Sanders, a progressive U.S. Senator from Vermont, endorsed Weil.

But Trump also personally stepped in, holding a tele-rally for Fine ahead of the vote. Additionally, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, a gubernatorial candidate who once served with Fine in the Florida House, held a tele-rally with Fine on the eve of the election with conservative pundit Ben Shapiro.

Weil held several mini-canvassing events throughout the district and will spend much of Tuesday on the ground in the most populous areas of Putnam, Marion and Flagler counties before holding a party in the evening in Daytona Beach. Fine, meanwhile, spent his Monday in conservative bastions like Tavares and Ormond Beach after spending much of the weekend in conservative St. Johns County.

Privately, Republicans figure if they can grow the difference between GOP voters and Democrats who cast ballots to between 12 and 15 percentage points. But Democrats say even if Weil doesn’t win, the results can send a powerful message. The last time CD 6 was an open seat, when Waltz was elected in 2018, Republicans won by less than 13 percentage points. If Weil simply beats that spread, Democrats could call that a win.

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No congressional district in Florida boasts a stronger track record of Republican support than Florida’s 1st Congressional District. However, as one of the first Special Elections for Congress since President Donald Trump’s 2024 win, Democrats poured millions into the Panhandle contest. Will it make a difference?

In a Tuesday Special Election, Democrat Gay Valimont faces Republican Jimmy Patronis in a race to decide who succeeds former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz.

In November, Valimont lost to Gaetz by 36 percentage points, as the district broke for Trump by 38 points. But this time, she has raised upward of $6.5 million, while Patronis has reported more than $2 million in contributions. Democrats hope to beat historic trends and send Valimont to Congress or at least to send a message to Washington about discontent within the electorate, even in Trump country.

“In Congress, I will show Florida’s 1st District what it looks like when the government truly works for the people and our needs,” Valimont said at a recent campaign event.

Patronis, for his part, remains confident the values of Panhandle voters will translate into election results. On the eve of the election, he told Florida Politics that voters in CD 1 want to empower Trump’s agenda, not cripple it.

“These are the same folks that less than six months ago overwhelmingly voted to elect President Donald J. Trump to the White House,” Patronis said. “They were fed up the last four years. They were fed up with the inflation crisis. They were fed up with being poor. They wanted a government that was responsible to the people, and this is why they showed up the way they did. So you know, they’re going to expect government that’s going to be effective and responsive to their needs. This is what they’re going to get with me.”

Patronis has served most of the last decade as Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, a post he had to resign from as of Monday to run for the U.S. House. Valimont has been involved in politics as an activist, including working for Moms Demand Action to find ways to curb gun violence.

Heading into Election Day, Democrats have turned out a higher percentage of their voters than Republicans. As of Monday morning, elections officials had received 11,611 mail-in ballots from Democrats across the district, slightly more than the 11,527 already turned in by Republicans. Another 3,756 ballots came in from voters not registered with either party.

But in-person early voting is a different story. Over two weeks, 31,875 Republicans took advantage of the opportunity to cast ballots in select locations, almost double the 16,430 Democrats who did the same. Another 7,893 voters also used early voting.

Heading into the April 1 Special Election, Republicans had a greater than 18-point advantage in raw turnout. Party officials expect that to increase, as many Republicans still favor voting at the polls on Election Day.

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried plans to canvas in Pensacola this morning for a last-minute drive to turn out voters for Valimont. Rapper 2 Chainz even held a free concert in Pensacola on Saturday to encourage early voting.

However, Republicans have also stepped up efforts to turn out Patronis voters. Trump, who endorsed Patronis before entering the race, held a tele-rally for the Panama City Republican this weekend. Republican Party of Florida Executive Director Bill Helmich said party volunteers made 200,000 phone calls in this race and another Special Election being held today.

“Obviously we want as many Republicans as possible voting,” he said. “Unless a lot of Republicans are voting against Mr. Patronis, which I doubt, he is fine.”

Florida Democratic Party Deputy Communications Manager Matt Dailey said that, between the two congressional elections in Florida on Tuesday, “Our whole staff is working one way or another.”

Privately, Democrats acknowledge an uphill battle for Valimont even with her cash advantage. But Valimont’s campaign sees a path to victory if she can turn out a high number of Democrats, win most independent voters, and convince enough Republicans that it is time for change. Efforts by the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency to gut defense spending have provided a strong message in a district where military spending keeps many households afloat.

“I will work to lower the cost of living, reduce homeowners’ insurance costs, protect Social Security and Medicare, and bring a VA hospital to our district,” Valimont said on social media. “I’m a mom and community advocate who will always put Northwest Florida first. I love this place. Every corner of this district reminds me of my family. My opponent is the CFO of Florida, the man responsible for Florida’s insurance crisis. He also doesn’t live in our district.”

But Patronis also feels voters know they are getting with him, and that’s a strong public servant. He twice carried this district in statewide races for his Cabinet post and expects to do so again on Tuesday.

“Jimmy Patronis is not a show horse. He’s a workhorse,” Patronis said of himself. “And you know, I really enjoy working. I’m the guy that likes to get to the office an hour before I’m supposed to be there, and I like to stay about an hour after I’m supposed to already leave. So I’m signing up for work. I’m signing up for my new job, and hopefully, I will get it with the people’s trust on Tuesday night.”

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