Florida housing crisis has a SHIP and SAIL, but no rudder

“Americans will always do the right thing after they have exhausted all other possibilities.” Winston Churchill wasn’t talking about Florida housing policy, but he might as well have been. So, let’s ask the question the Legislature keeps avoiding.

Are things bad enough yet for the Legislature to act?

Because Florida doesn’t change housing policy when the data is clear. We change when the consequences become unavoidable. When teachers can’t live near schools, when nurses can’t live near hospitals, when firefighters commute between two counties, when employers quietly admit wages don’t matter if housing is unattainable.

Florida’s shortage is structural and well-documented

Research from the Florida Policy Project, along with work from the Sunshine State Housing Alliance, shows Florida faces a cumulative housing shortage of more than 120,000 units, the result of population growth consistently outpacing housing production for many years.

This is not a niche affordability issue. Roughly a third of Florida households are cost-burdened, paying more than 30% of their income on housing, the point at which families begin cutting back on essentials like health care, childcare, and savings.

The shortage is most acute in fast-growing metro areas like Tampa Bay, Miami-Dade, and Broward, where job growth has far outstripped new housing supply.

The market has developed its own coping mechanism. Distance has become Florida’s most common housing subsidy, as residents “drive to qualify” for a mortgage or rental. Once-stalwart markets like Orlando and Tampa are now seeing residents relocate to emerging, lower-cost markets such as Ocala and Lake Wales.

The result is likely to be increased workforce instability in Florida’s established metro areas, greater congestion on the state’s roadways, and potentially a shift in employment centers closer to where people live.

Why money alone won’t solve this

Florida already invests in housing. SHIP (State Housing Initiatives Partnership) and SAIL (State Apartment Incentive Loan) matter. They help close financing gaps and support affordability. But here is the uncomfortable truth backed by Florida Policy Project research. Housing in Florida is constrained by rules and land economics more than by dollars.

In higher-cost coastal markets, including St. Petersburg, Miami, and Fort Lauderdale, per-unit construction costs increasingly push past $300,000 per door, particularly for projects requiring structured parking, higher insurance coverage, and longer approval timelines. Land, labor, materials, insurance, and time all compound the cost.

So, when policymakers ask why affordability hasn’t improved despite funding, the answer is simple. Subsidy is chasing a cost curve it didn’t create.

The math policymakers rarely confront

Let’s assume Florida commits to building 10,000 new housing units per year, a meaningful effort that would still not eliminate a shortage measured in the tens of thousands today and growing over time. At $300,000 per unit, that is $3 billion per year. No Legislature, left or right, can sustainably fund that scale without changing the rules that drive per-unit cost.

That is why there is no silver bullet in housing, only lead bullets, and you have to fire them all.

The St. Petersburg post-flood teardown math explains everything. You can see this dynamic clearly in St. Petersburg after the flooding caused by Hurricane Helene, particularly in post-flood-exposed neighborhoods. As land values rise, older, more affordable homes are increasingly torn down and replaced by million-dollar structures, not because the market prefers luxury, but because the land itself accounts for a large share of a new home’s total cost, often 30-40%.

When land carries that much of the cost, the replacement housing must be larger and more expensive to make the numbers work. This is not greed. It is arithmetic, reinforced by zoning rules that typically allow only one home per lot. When only one outcome is legal, the market delivers exactly that outcome. That is how affordability disappears quietly, one teardown at a time.

The rudder Florida needs

The Florida Policy Project, in collaboration with members of the Sunshine State Housing Alliance, consistently finds the same conclusion. We must reduce land cost per home by allowing more homes on the same land. That requires statewide action. Our work with key members of the Florida House and Florida Senate has resulted in several bills filed for the 2026 Florida Legislative Session.

First, Florida should adopt a statewide minimum lot size standard for new developments. Oversized local lot requirements inflate land costs before construction even begins. Smaller lots do not reduce quality. They reduce waste.

Second, Florida should allow administrative, by-right lot splits in urban counties. If a parcel meets objective standards for safety, infrastructure, and setbacks, it should be eligible for subdivision without discretionary hearings or neighborhood vetoes. Time is money, and uncertainty is a tax.

Third, Florida must legalize townhomes, duplexes, ADUs, and other missing-middle housing types in areas already served by roads, water, sewer, and schools. These housing forms once built Florida’s middle class, and we essentially made them illegal.

Finally, the state should align infrastructure, concurrency, and housing policy so infill and redevelopment are rewarded rather than penalized.

These reforms reflect best practices in housing policy, not ideology.

They prioritize predictability over discretion, rules over negotiations, and outcomes over process. Jurisdictions that make housing attainable consistently do three things well. They allow housing where infrastructure already exists.

They reduce uncertainty in approvals. They lower the land cost per unit by permitting more than one home on a parcel. States that follow these practices are better positioned to attract and retain workers, support employers, and remain economically competitive.

SHIP and SAIL remain necessary to help the affordability crisis. And, without these structural reforms, subsidies will consistently be outpaced by rising land and construction costs.

Are things bad enough yet?

Housing shortages do not announce themselves with a single headline. They show up in commute times, workforce shortages, rising rents, and families quietly leaving communities they once could afford.

Left unaddressed, Florida risks repeating a familiar story many residents already know firsthand, where housing scarcity hardens into permanent high costs, a dwindling workforce and long commutes, the same pattern that reshaped California over the last generation. Florida already feels all of it. We can keep funding programs while drifting, or we can finally steer. A state can have a SHIP and a SAIL. But, without a rudder, we are adrift and confusing motion for progress.

And as Ernest Hemingway, who called Florida home, once described how change really happens, gradually, then suddenly. Florida’s housing crisis has followed that exact path. What happens next is no longer a question of markets or money. It is a question of will. If leaders continue to drift, the loss of affordability will not be accidental, inevitable, or misunderstood. It will be chosen. And Florida will become a place where opportunity is rationed, not earned, because those entrusted to govern saw the warning signs and decided not to steer.

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Jeff Brandes is a former state Senator, Founder and president of The Florida Policy Project. a non-profit, non-partisan research institute dedicated to improving policy outcomes across Florida’s most pressing challenges, including housing affordability, insurance reform, criminal justice, and transportation. Guided by evidence-based research and best practices from other states and contexts, FPP strives to equip policymakers and the public with rigorous analysis that leads to better decisions and measurable results. For more insights, please visit floridapolicyproject.com.