Florida Democrats flipped 2 legislative seats Tuesday. Is it a harbinger of trouble for the long dominant GOP?

Two Special Elections for legislative seats barely alter the partisan composition of the Senate or House. But to Florida Democrats, the victories significantly reshape the outlook for the General Election and defy a recently earned red state reputation.

Major candidates for Governor and Senate say red-to-blue flips in Senate District 14, where Democrat Brian Nathan upset Republican Josie Tomkow, and House District 87, where Democrat Emily Gregory won in a district where President Donald Trump lives, show Democrats can win in Florida.

“Florida’s voters are asking Democrats to dig our state out of an economic crisis and to return our state to basic decency,” said Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly, a former Republican Congressman. “Tonight, they’ve rightfully put their trust in Sen.-elect Brian Nathan and Rep.-elect Emily Gregory. In November, we have the historic opportunity to elect a Democratic Governor. It’s clear. Change is here.”

Jolly faces Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings in a Democratic Primary, and Demings also feels bullish about November. The Orlando Democrat sent out his own statement also congratulating Nathan and Gregory while boasting about improved odds for the entire ticket this Fall.

“Voters are sick and tired of the corruption and chaos in Tallahassee. They’re sick and tired of rising costs on working families and seniors. And they’re sick and tired of the politics that put insurance and electric companies’ interests ahead of the people,” Demings said.

“These flips in these Trump-won districts show there is an appetite for change now and in November. My message to the people of Florida and the nation: Democrats can and will win in the Sunshine State.”

Such enthusiasm has been in short supply in Florida since the last Governor’s race, when Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2022 won re-election by a record 19-percentage-point landslide.

Some fundamentals of the race make for a better scenario for Democrats this year. With DeSantis facing term limits, there will be no incumbent in the statewide race. And rather than running in a Midterm two years after Democrat Joe Biden won the White House and energized GOP voters, Democrats now run at a time when their voters feel outraged by Trump’s return to power.

Still, plenty of other factors also signal Florida hasn’t stopped shifting red. Republican voters in 2022 outnumbered Democrats by about 400,000 at this point in the election cycle. But the GOP now boasts a 1.5-million-voter edge in Florida.

The Division of Elections reports the number of registered Democrats declined by nearly 900,000 voters in the last four years, while Republicans netted 200,000 more registrations in the same period of time.

Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power brushed off post-election spin from across the aisle. He noted that Republicans successfully defended one House seat on Tuesday — Hilary Holley won the race to succeed Tomkow in deep red House District 51 — despite the current environment.

And Power suggested that past Democratic wins in Special Elections proved to be pyrrhic victories by the time the General Election rolled around. He specifically pointed at Democrat Tom Keen’s short stint in the Florida House after a 2024 Special Election win, only to see defeat to Republican Erika Booth months after his victory.

“These races mirror what we saw in the Erika Booth race two years ago. Florida remains Democrats fool’s gold in general elections,” Power said. “Trying to read special elections as anything other than special is a constant losing narrative.”

Republicans in Washington agree. At a time when a Floridian, Joe Gruters, leads the Republican National Committee, the national GOP isn’t brooding over Tuesday’s results.

“A low-turnout state House special election is a snapshot of local quirks, candidate dynamics, and turnout math — not some grand verdict,” said Republican National Committee Senior Adviser Danielle Alvarez, also a longtime Florida political consultant.

But Christian Ulvert, a veteran Democratic consultant in South Florida, sees more than just a couple isolated wins. Rather, he sees the Florida electorate as a whole growing sick of Trump’s policies. He suggests voters from across the political spectrum in Florida feel ready to vote Democrat.

He suggested certain foreign policy moves intended to assuage voters’ concerns about Venezuela and Cuba have already started to blow up for the administration. “If you put the (Raúl) Castro family in charge of Cuba and claim victory, I see a deep level of tension about that,” he said.

Ulvert suggested an expected blue wave this November could actually be much stronger than expected, something less like the 2018 that gave Democrats their last U.S. House majority and more comparable to the Republican Revolution in 1994 when the GOP flipped over 50 seats from blue to red.

Already, Florida Democrats started making the case to donors across the country that Florida could be back in play.

Retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, posted congratulatory posts to both Nathan and Gregory on Tuesday evening.

“Floridians are using their voice to stand up for an end to the high costs, chaos and corruption — this win is just the beginning,” Vindman posted on X.

Likewise, state Rep. Angie Nixon, another Democratic running for the U.S. Senate, saw the election results as a sign of things to come.

“It’s actually putting the Republican Party on notice that the voters are no longer okay with cruelty being at the forefront of their policies,” she said. “It is looking quite good for statewide candidates.”

She suggested there is discontent in the electorate, and with Republicans in control of Florida politics at the Governor level for roughly 30 years, voters for change will want to toss the party out.

“People are struggling and it doesn’t have to be this way,” she said. “People are ready to try something else.”