The Florida Chamber Foundation’s forecast for economic growth this year is pretty upbeat.
The business advocacy group held its annual 2026 Economic Outlook and Jobs Solutions Summit online Thursday and projections were pretty bullish as about 20 speakers from economists to business leaders laid out their expectations.
The Chamber Foundation President and CEO Mark Wilson said there’s reason the state’s business picture is looking up. He said Florida is now the 15th largest economy in the world. But he wants to see that significantly increase in the next five years.
“We want to get to No. 10 by 2030,” Wilson said as the Chamber is in the middle of its 10-year strategic 2030 Blueprint plan.
Wilson said the Chamber is anticipating an increase of 2.5 million people in the state’s population by the end of the decade. That would be on top of the current estimated population of 23 million. If that population jump is realized, he said the state would need 1.3 million new jobs in the private sector.
Sheridan Morby, Senior Research Economist for the Chamber Foundation, said the 2025 nonagricultural labor market had more than 10 million jobs in the state, which she called a “big deal.” The market is expected to grow by 1% to 2% this year.
Morby said there’s no reason to expect a recession this year while noting umemployment ticked up to 4.2% to close out 2025 and that the trend could continue. She said Florida’s jobless rate is still lower than the national rate of 4.3%.
With all that optimism, there is one sticking point: affordable housing.
Brad O’Connor, Chief Economist for the Florida Realtors trade association, said 2025 saw the fourth consecutive year-over-year decreased in home sales. But decreasing mortgage rates, which were hovering around 7% about a year ago, fell to about 6% thanks to interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve. If the market shifts further in favor of buyers, O’Connor expects an uptick in sales will follow.
