First Coast manufacturing picking up, but some caution persists among tariff threats

Manufacturing on the First Coast showed some signs of expansion in September, a welcome change following struggles this Summer.

That’s according to the latest Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey (JEMS) report from the University of North Florida.

The report showed that output prices, average input prices, supplier delivery times and business activity outlook all expanded in September.

Other key components such as output, quantity of input purchased, and backlogs of work remained unchanged for the month.

Albert Loh, interim Dean of the UNF Coggin College of Business, oversees the survey. Loh said there are signs of improvement, but the manufacturing scene is still facing hurdles as some industries are skittish.

“While production held steady and prices showed only mild inflationary pressure, the overall decline suggests that local manufacturers are facing soft demand and lingering cost challenges,” Loh said in his summary of the report. “Both local and national data point to a manufacturing economy operating at low gear, with most firms focused on efficiency, cost control, and maintaining operations amid market uncertainty.”

UNF researchers from the JEMS project reach out to First Coast manufacturing companies each month to see where they stand on production and several other factors.

While September’s survey highlighted continued uncertainty, the latest report is an improvement from August’s report and July’s analysis. July’s survey showed that 10 out of 12 manufacturing sectors in Northeast Florida contracted that month.

Loh concluded that the September numbers show the manufacturing scene is getting better, but some sluggishness may continue.

“Beneath the headline number, Jacksonville’s sub-indexes paint a picture of steady but cautious activity. Output and supplier deliveries remained stable, but new orders and export orders both contracted, indicating that customers are still hesitant to commit to large purchases or new projects,” Loh said.

“Still, challenges persist: tariffs and elevated material costs continue to pressure margins, and the risk of a broader economic slowdown or mild recession remains. Overall, Jacksonville’s manufacturing sector appears to be in a holding pattern — resilient, but waiting for clearer economic signals before resuming growth.”