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Federal appeals court tariff ruling signals CFOs to ‘plan for turbulence’

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Good morning. A federal appeals court ruled on Aug. 29 that most of the Trump administration’s tariffs on global trading partners are illegal. That means yet another uptick in tariff uncertainty for businesses.

“While the court’s decision introduces fresh uncertainty, tariffs are likely to remain in place for at least a month until a final ruling—which itself is highly uncertain,” Gregory Daco, EY-Parthenon chief economist, told me.

The court’s ruling wouldn’t take effect until Oct. 14, and the Trump administration is expected to appeal the case to the U.S. Supreme Court, which may hear arguments this year or in 2026. On Tuesday, President Trump said he will ask the Court for an “expedited ruling” to overturn the appeals court decision.  

Daco said this ambiguity reinforces the importance of a “tariff tower watch” approach: monitoring legal and policy developments closely while planning across multiple horizons.

In the near term, CFOs should align pricing strategies, revisit supplier terms, and model out cost scenarios, he said. More generally, he advises medium-term contingency planning that spans logistics, margin pressure, inventory management, and customer pass-through dynamics. EY research and industry reports recommend CFOs prioritize disruptive technology and data in scenario planning to strengthen resilience and decision-making.

I asked Daco about the potential short- and long-term economic consequences for industries that had adjusted to the existing tariffs. Removing tariffs would be economically stimulative—lowering input costs, lifting margins, and potentially accelerating investment, he said.

“But the reality is that any reprieve may prove fleeting,” he explained. The administration retains broad authority to reimpose tariffs through other legal frameworks, such as Section 232 or 301 of U.S. trade law, and “the broader shift toward strategic protectionism is likely to persist,” Daco said.

The impacts of tariffs continue to be top of mind for CEOs and CFOs. Since June 15, there have been 346 earnings calls conducted by S&P 500 companies in which the terms “tariff” or “tariffs” were cited at least once on the call, John Butters, VP and senior earnings analyst at FactSet, told me.

Daco’s biggest piece of advice for finance chiefs: “Plan for turbulence, not just outcomes.”

He recommends that CFOs lean into scenario planning that integrates legal risk, trade exposure, and geopolitical volatility. Build resilience across your supply chain, ensure pricing strategies can flex with cost volatility, and maintain optionality in procurement and production, he said.

“In an environment where the policy goalposts are moving, agility is not a luxury—it’s a necessity,” Daco said.

Now, that’s for certain.

Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com

Leaderboard

 

Alka Tandan, CFO of Gainsight, a customer success platform provider, has announced she will be leaving the company after almost six and a half years in the role. Tandan will remain in an advisory capacity at Gainsight for a transition period of a few months. Gainsight’s longtime CEO and founder, Nick Mehta, stepped down in August and has been succeeded by Chuck Ganapathi, who previously served as president and chief operating officer at the company. In a LinkedIn post, Tandan said she is looking forward to spending quality time with her 1-year-old son “before embarking on my next chapter.”

 

Kenneth Lynard was appointed CFO of Pharming Group N.V. (Nasdaq: PHAR), effective Oct. 1. Lynard has more than 20 years of global leadership experience in the life sciences industry. Most recently, he served as CFO of Schoeller Allibert and Zentiva, a European pharmaceutical company. He previously served as CFO at Affidea, and worked for Gilead Sciences, a leading US-based biopharmaceutical company, as SVP and CFO of global commercial operations, R&D and manufacturing. 

Big Deal

According to Mercer’s latest 2025 U.S. Compensation Planning Survey companies plan to increase their compensation budgets in 2026 by 3.1% for merit increases and 3.5% for total salary increases for non-unionized employees.

 

These projections are similar to 2025, when U.S. employers delivered actual merit and total salary increases of 3.2% and 3.5%, respectively. The survey also found that 20% of U.S. companies expect ongoing economic uncertainty to significantly impact compensation decisions in 2026.

 

Additionally, about 88% of respondents noted their budgets are still in the preliminary phase and that salary increases may soften as budgets are finalized closer to year-end, according to the findings.

Compensation projections vary by industry. For example, banking/financial services and life sciences expect above-average total increase budgets of 3.7%.

Employers also plan to promote approximately 8.1% of their workforce in 2026, down from 9.9% in 2025. The most common approach—used by 43% of employers—is to promote “as needed,” while 26% report having two promotion cycles per year. 

Going deeper

“Judge rules Google must share some search data and end exclusive distribution deals, but won’t force Google to sell Chrome” is a Fortune report by Jeremy Kahn and Alexei Oreskovic.

From the report: “A federal judge ruled that Google can no longer enter into exclusive distribution deals to make its search engine or its Gemini AI technology the default option on phones and other devices and said Google must share some of its search data with competitors, but said he would not force the $2.6 trillion company to spin off key assets like its Chrome web browser. The ruling in the Department of Justice’s landmark antitrust case against Google-parent Alphabet stopped short of what could have been the government’s most severe action in decades to curb the power of a monopoly.” You can read the complete report here.

Overheard

“80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus.”

—Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in an X post on Monday that the company’s value would eventually come from its autonomous Optimus bots, Fortune reported. On the same day, Tesla also released its “Master Plan, Part IV,” which places increased emphasis on physical AI.

This is the web version of CFO Daily, a newsletter on the trends and individuals shaping corporate finance. Sign up for free.



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Netflix–Warner Bros. deal sets up $72 billion antitrust test

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Netflix Inc. has won the heated takeover battle for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Now it must convince global antitrust regulators that the deal won’t give it an illegal advantage in the streaming market. 

The $72 billion tie-up joins the world’s dominant paid streaming service with one of Hollywood’s most iconic movie studios. It would reshape the market for online video content by combining the No. 1 streaming player with the No. 4 service HBO Max and its blockbuster hits such as Game Of ThronesFriends, and the DC Universe comics characters franchise.  

That could raise red flags for global antitrust regulators over concerns that Netflix would have too much control over the streaming market. The company faces a lengthy Justice Department review and a possible US lawsuit seeking to block the deal if it doesn’t adopt some remedies to get it cleared, analysts said.

“Netflix will have an uphill climb unless it agrees to divest HBO Max as well as additional behavioral commitments — particularly on licensing content,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jennifer Rie. “The streaming overlap is significant,” she added, saying the argument that “the market should be viewed more broadly is a tough one to win.”

By choosing Netflix, Warner Bros. has jilted another bidder, Paramount Skydance Corp., a move that risks touching off a political battle in Washington. Paramount is backed by the world’s second-richest man, Larry Ellison, and his son, David Ellison, and the company has touted their longstanding close ties to President Donald Trump. Their acquisition of Paramount, which closed in August, has won public praise from Trump. 

Comcast Corp. also made a bid for Warner Bros., looking to merge it with its NBCUniversal division.

The Justice Department’s antitrust division, which would review the transaction in the US, could argue that the deal is illegal on its face because the combined market share would put Netflix well over a 30% threshold.

The White House, the Justice Department and Comcast didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. 

US lawmakers from both parties, including Republican Representative Darrell Issa and Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren have already faulted the transaction — which would create a global streaming giant with 450 million users — as harmful to consumers.

“This deal looks like an anti-monopoly nightmare,” Warren said after the Netflix announcement. Utah Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, said in a social media post earlier this week that a Warner Bros.-Netflix tie-up would raise more serious competition questions “than any transaction I’ve seen in about a decade.”

European Union regulators are also likely to subject the Netflix proposal to an intensive review amid pressure from legislators. In the UK, the deal has already drawn scrutiny before the announcement, with House of Lords member Baroness Luciana Berger pressing the government on how the transaction would impact competition and consumer prices.

The combined company could raise prices and broadly impact “culture, film, cinemas and theater releases,”said Andreas Schwab, a leading member of the European Parliament on competition issues, after the announcement.

Paramount has sought to frame the Netflix deal as a non-starter. “The simple truth is that a deal with Netflix as the buyer likely will never close, due to antitrust and regulatory challenges in the United States and in most jurisdictions abroad,” Paramount’s antitrust lawyers wrote to their counterparts at Warner Bros. on Dec. 1.

Appealing directly to Trump could help Netflix avoid intense antitrust scrutiny, New Street Research’s Blair Levin wrote in a note on Friday. Levin said it’s possible that Trump could come to see the benefit of switching from a pro-Paramount position to a pro-Netflix position. “And if he does so, we believe the DOJ will follow suit,” Levin wrote.

Netflix co-Chief Executive Officer Ted Sarandos had dinner with Trump at the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida last December, a move other CEOs made after the election in order to win over the administration. In a call with investors Friday morning, Sarandos said that he’s “highly confident in the regulatory process,” contending the deal favors consumers, workers and innovation. 

“Our plans here are to work really closely with all the appropriate governments and regulators, but really confident that we’re going to get all the necessary approvals that we need,” he said.

Netflix will likely argue to regulators that other video services such as Google’s YouTube and ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok should be included in any analysis of the market, which would dramatically shrink the company’s perceived dominance.

The US Federal Communications Commission, which regulates the transfer of broadcast-TV licenses, isn’t expected to play a role in the deal, as neither hold such licenses. Warner Bros. plans to spin off its cable TV division, which includes channels such as CNN, TBS and TNT, before the sale.

Even if antitrust reviews just focus on streaming, Netflix believes it will ultimately prevail, pointing to Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime and Walt Disney Co. as other major competitors, according to people familiar with the company’s thinking. 

Netflix is expected to argue that more than 75% of HBO Max subscribers already subscribe to Netflix, making them complementary offerings rather than competitors, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing confidential deliberations. The company is expected to make the case that reducing its content costs through owning Warner Bros., eliminating redundant back-end technology and bundling Netflix with Max will yield lower prices.



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The rise of AI reasoning models comes with a big energy tradeoff

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Nearly all leading artificial intelligence developers are focused on building AI models that mimic the way humans reason, but new research shows these cutting-edge systems can be far more energy intensive, adding to concerns about AI’s strain on power grids.

AI reasoning models used 30 times more power on average to respond to 1,000 written prompts than alternatives without this reasoning capability or which had it disabled, according to a study released Thursday. The work was carried out by the AI Energy Score project, led by Hugging Face research scientist Sasha Luccioni and Salesforce Inc. head of AI sustainability Boris Gamazaychikov.

The researchers evaluated 40 open, freely available AI models, including software from OpenAI, Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Microsoft Corp. Some models were found to have a much wider disparity in energy consumption, including one from Chinese upstart DeepSeek. A slimmed-down version of DeepSeek’s R1 model used just 50 watt hours to respond to the prompts when reasoning was turned off, or about as much power as is needed to run a 50 watt lightbulb for an hour. With the reasoning feature enabled, the same model required 7,626 watt hours to complete the tasks.

The soaring energy needs of AI have increasingly come under scrutiny. As tech companies race to build more and bigger data centers to support AI, industry watchers have raised concerns about straining power grids and raising energy costs for consumers. A Bloomberg investigation in September found that wholesale electricity prices rose as much as 267% over the past five years in areas near data centers. There are also environmental drawbacks, as Microsoft, Google and Amazon.com Inc. have previously acknowledged the data center buildout could complicate their long-term climate objectives

More than a year ago, OpenAI released its first reasoning model, called o1. Where its prior software replied almost instantly to queries, o1 spent more time computing an answer before responding. Many other AI companies have since released similar systems, with the goal of solving more complex multistep problems for fields like science, math and coding.

Though reasoning systems have quickly become the industry norm for carrying out more complicated tasks, there has been little research into their energy demands. Much of the increase in power consumption is due to reasoning models generating much more text when responding, the researchers said. 

The new report aims to better understand how AI energy needs are evolving, Luccioni said. She also hopes it helps people better understand that there are different types of AI models suited to different actions. Not every query requires tapping the most computationally intensive AI reasoning systems.

“We should be smarter about the way that we use AI,” Luccioni said. “Choosing the right model for the right task is important.”

To test the difference in power use, the researchers ran all the models on the same computer hardware. They used the same prompts for each, ranging from simple questions — such as asking which team won the Super Bowl in a particular year — to more complex math problems. They also used a software tool called CodeCarbon to track how much energy was being consumed in real time.

The results varied considerably. The researchers found one of Microsoft’s Phi 4 reasoning models used 9,462 watt hours with reasoning turned on, compared with about 18 watt hours with it off. OpenAI’s largest gpt-oss model, meanwhile, had a less stark difference. It used 8,504 watt hours with reasoning on the most computationally intensive “high” setting and 5,313 watt hours with the setting turned down to “low.” 

OpenAI, Microsoft, Google and DeepSeek did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Google released internal research in August that estimated the median text prompt for its Gemini AI service used 0.24 watt-hours of energy, roughly equal to watching TV for less than nine seconds. Google said that figure was “substantially lower than many public estimates.” 

Much of the discussion about AI power consumption has focused on large-scale facilities set up to train artificial intelligence systems. Increasingly, however, tech firms are shifting more resources to inference, or the process of running AI systems after they’ve been trained. The push toward reasoning models is a big piece of that as these systems are more reliant on inference.

Recently, some tech leaders have acknowledged that AI’s power draw needs to be reckoned with. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said the industry must earn the “social permission to consume energy” for AI data centers in a November interview. To do that, he argued tech must use AI to do good and foster broad economic growth.



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SpaceX to offer insider shares at record-setting valuation

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SpaceX is preparing to sell insider shares in a transaction that would value Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker at a valuation higher than OpenAI’s record-setting $500 billion, people familiar with the matter said.

One of the people briefed on the deal said that the share price under discussion is higher than $400 apiece, which would value SpaceX at between $750 billion and $800 billion, though the details could change. 

The company’s latest tender offer was discussed by its board of directors on Thursday at SpaceX’s Starbase hub in Texas. If confirmed, it would make SpaceX once again the world’s most valuable closely held company, vaulting past the previous record of $500 billion that ChatGPT owner OpenAI set in October. Play Video

Preliminary scenarios included per-share prices that would have pushed SpaceX’s value at roughly $560 billion or higher, the people said. The details of the deal could change before it closes, a third person said. 

A representative for SpaceX didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. 

The latest figure would be a substantial increase from the $212 a share set in July, when the company raised money and sold shares at a valuation of $400 billion.

The Wall Street Journal and Financial Times, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter, earlier reported that a deal would value SpaceX at $800 billion.

News of SpaceX’s valuation sent shares of EchoStar Corp., a satellite TV and wireless company, up as much as 18%. Last month, Echostar had agreed to sell spectrum licenses to SpaceX for $2.6 billion, adding to an earlier agreement to sell about $17 billion in wireless spectrum to Musk’s company.

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The world’s most prolific rocket launcher, SpaceX dominates the space industry with its Falcon 9 rocket that launches satellites and people to orbit.

SpaceX is also the industry leader in providing internet services from low-Earth orbit through Starlink, a system of more than 9,000 satellites that is far ahead of competitors including Amazon.com Inc.’s Amazon Leo.

SpaceX executives have repeatedly floated the idea of spinning off SpaceX’s Starlink business into a separate, publicly traded company — a concept President Gwynne Shotwell first suggested in 2020. 

However, Musk cast doubt on the prospect publicly over the years and Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said in 2024 that a Starlink IPO would be something that would take place more likely “in the years to come.”

The Information, citing people familiar with the discussions, separately reported on Friday that SpaceX has told investors and financial institution representatives that it is aiming for an initial public offering for the entire company in the second half of next year.

A so-called tender or secondary offering, through which employees and some early shareholders can sell shares, provides investors in closely held companies such as SpaceX a way to generate liquidity.

SpaceX is working to develop its new Starship vehicle, advertised as the most powerful rocket ever developed to loft huge numbers of Starlink satellites as well as carry cargo and people to moon and, eventually, Mars.



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