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Warren Buffett saw the selloff coming and hoarded cash, analyst says, as markets await his next move — ‘patience is more than a virtue, it’s a weapon’

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  • After Warren Buffett sold $134 billion in equities in 2024 and is sitting on a $334 billion cash pile, one analyst said the “Oracle of Omaha” saw the current selloff coming. While it’s unlikely Buffett will make any big moves during the current market turmoil, some think he’ll look internationally or round out his insurance business.

Amid the stock market selloff, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett’s recent capital movements suggest he was preparing for it, according to an analyst. 

After tumbling more than 10% from its last peak, the Nasdaq remains in correction territory. The S&P 500 also entered a correction, though Friday’s rally pared its decline to less than 10% from its all-time record.

That has highlighted Berkshire’s recent cash hoarding as especially prescient. When asked if Buffett saw the selloff coming, Armando Gonzalez, founder of AI-powered research platform Bigdata.com, said the evidence suggests he did.

“Buffett’s actions over the past year have been a textbook example of positioning for turbulence,” he said in an emailed response to questions from Fortune.

Berkshire sold $134 billion in equities in 2024, ending the year with a cash pile of $334.2 billion—nearly double from a year ago and more than its shrinking stock portfolio of $272 billion. 

Gonzalez also noted that Buffett’s recent comments have been riddled with caution, emphasizing inflationary concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. For example, he warned that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will cause prices to rise.

“History shows when Buffett turns net seller, he often anticipates a period of subpar market performance,” Gonzalez said. “And once again, the Oracle of Omaha seems to have been ahead of the curve.”

With stocks well off their highs, that begs the question: will the famously value-conscious Buffett start deploying his cash by making some big purchases?

To be sure, Berkshire has made some moderate stock buys. But preferring bargains, Buffett historically looks to invest heavily in companies when valuations are low. During the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, for instance, Buffett deployed $3 billion into General Electric whose stock price had nosedived.

In his latest letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett reiterated his years-long view that valuations remained high. 

Gonzalez said it’s possible Buffett could start buying but only if true bargains emerge, noting that his track record shows a deep aversion to haste, even when markets tumble.

“He has no interest in timing the market’s bottom, nor does he chase short-term rebounds,” he said. “Instead, he waits for moments when fear drives prices to levels where the risk-reward equation tilts decisively in his favor.”

If Buffett should choose to finally make a big purchase, Gonzalez expects his next move to be used with a scalpel rather than a “broad-market splash,” if any at all. 

“In Buffett’s world, patience is more than a virtue, it’s a weapon,” he added.

While it’s uncertain if Buffett will go forward with a deal during the current market selloff, CFRA Research’s Cathy Seifert told Fortune she wouldn’t be surprised if Berkshire rounded out its insurance holdings. 

She added that valuations are still not dirt cheap, while the cash Buffett has parked in Treasury bonds is yielding him a good return and the competitive environment for deals has changed.

Additionally, Buffett has shown keen interest in Japanese trading companies, suggesting “a growing appetite for international diversification,” Gonzalez said. 

Since 2019, Berkshire has invested in the five biggest Japanese “sogo shosha,” which invest across sectors domestically and abroad. The trading houses—Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo—operate “in a manner somewhat similar to Berkshire itself,” Buffett wrote in his annual letter.

While Buffett sits on his pile of cash, his deployable funds may grow even more as rumors of a rare Berkshire sale circle.

The Wall Street Journal reported that real-estate brokerage Compass was in advanced talks to acquire Berkshire Hathaway’s HomeServices of America.

According to Berkshire’s annual report, HomeServices has 820 brokerage offices and 270 franchisees in 2024.

Berkshire Hathaway did not return Fortune’s request for comment.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Samuel Adams’s founder says Harvard doesn’t teach one crucial skill for entrepreneurs

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Democratic Party fractures in government shutdown fight as activists back primary challenges to supporters of GOP bill

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The Democratic Party was fracturing Friday as a torrent of frustration and anger was unleashed at Senate Democrats, led by Sen. Chuck Schumer, who faced what they saw as an awful choice: shut the government down or consent to a Republican funding bill that allows President Donald Trump to continue slashing the federal government.

After Schumer announced that he would reluctantly support the bill, he bore the brunt of that anger, including a protest at his office, calls from progressives that he be primaried in 2028 and suggestions that the Democratic Party would soon be looking for new leaders.

Nine other members of the Democratic Caucus — a contingent of mostly swing-state and retiring senators — eventually joined Schumer in voting to advance the Republican funding proposal, providing crucial support to bring it to a final vote. It passed late Friday with Sens. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Angus King of Maine voting with Republicans in favor.

Since their election losses, Democrats have been hunkered against a barrage of Trump’s early actions in office, locked out of legislative power and left searching for a plan to regain political momentum. But as Schumer let pass one of the rare moments when the party might regain leverage in Washington, the Democratic Party erupted in a moment of anger that had been building for months.

Many in the party felt the New York Democrat was not showing sufficient fight, arguing that a government shutdown would have forced Trump and Republicans to the negotiating table. Yet for Schumer, who has led Senate Democrats since Trump took office in 2016, the choice ultimately came down to preventing a shutdown that he believed would only hand Trump more power and leave his party with the blame for disruptions to government services.

“A shutdown would allow DOGE to shift into overdrive,” Schumer warned on the Senate floor Friday, referring to the Department of Government Efficiency effort led by Elon Musk.

Schumer voted no on the final vote for the funding bill, which only needed a simple majority to pass. Nonetheless, House Democrats released a stream of angry statements and social media posts aimed at Schumer.

Democratic Rep. Troy Carter of Louisiana shared a photo of Trump and Schumer engaged in conversation with the caption, “A picture is worth a thousand words!”

Even in the Senate, hardly any Democrats were speaking up in support of Schumer’s strategy Friday. It was a remarkable turn for the longtime Democratic leader, leaving him standing practically alone.

Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, his longtime ally and partner in funding fights of the past, said in a statement, “Let’s be clear: neither is a good option for the American people. But this false choice that some are buying instead of fighting is unacceptable.”

Pelosi added that the senators should listen to the women who lead appropriations for Democrats, Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut and Sen. Patty Murray of Washington. They had proposed a 30-day stopgap plan instead of the Republican proposal that provides funding until September. The Republican bill will trim $13 billion in non-defense spending from the levels in the 2024 budget year and increase defense spending by $6 billion.

As House Democrats, who almost all voted against the bill earlier this week, concluded a retreat in northern Virginia Friday, they also called for their Senate colleagues to show more fight. House Democratic leadership rushed back to the Capitol to hold a news conference and urge senators to reject the bill.

“We do not want to shutdown the government. But we are not afraid of a government funding showdown,” Jeffries said.

He also repeatedly declined to answer questions about whether he had confidence in Schumer.

Other Democrats, such as Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who is seen as a potential presidential candidate in 2028 and also visited the Democratic retreat, called for a broader movement. He mentioned the recent 60th anniversary of peaceful civil rights protests in Selma, Alabama, and argued that Democrats need to find “collective courage.”

“When those individuals marched, there wasn’t one voice,” Beshear said. “There was a collective courage of that group that changed the world. That day opened up the eyes of the country to what was really going on.”

Some were ready to start marching.

“We’re ready to get out of this building and head back to the Capitol at any moment and prevent the government from shutting down,” said Rep. Greg Casar of Texas, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

“Now is the moment for Democrats to draw a line in the stand and say that we stand very firmly on the side of working class people and against the ultra-rich that are trying to corrupt our government for themselves,” he added.

Meanwhile, some of the nation’s most influential progressive groups warned of serious political consequences for Senate Democrats and predicted a fierce backlash when members of Congress return home next week.

Ezra Levin, co-founder of Indivisible, which has organized hundreds of protests across the nation, said that nearly 8 in 10 of the group’s activists support primary challenges against “Senate Dems who cave on the GOP bill.”

He wrote on social media that the vast majority of those Democratic activists plan to express their anger at town halls or other public events next week. MoveOn, another progressive group that claims nearly 10 million members nationwide, predicted that its activists would also demand answers from Democratic officials in the coming days

“Clearing the way for Donald Trump and Elon Musk to gut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid is unacceptable. It’s past time for Democrats to fight and stop acting like it’s business as usual,” said Joel Payne, a spokesperson for MoveOn.

Senate Democrats were also mostly unwilling to speak up to defend Schumer’s move. Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Georgia Democrat, even suggested that the party should be looking for new leaders in the coming years.

“I think come ’26, ’28, we’ll get some new leadership,” he said. His office later said Warnock was answering the question broadly.

Mostly, though, senators just lamented that they had been jammed by a Republican Party that has found a new sense of unity under Trump. For years, House Republicans have not been able to muster votes for government funding on their own, forcing them into bipartisan negotiations. This time, they passed the bill on party lines and left Washington.

“We’re stuck with two bad choices presented by a unified Republican front,” said Sen. Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat.

He voted against the bill, yet said of Schumer’s decision: “These are tough, tough calls.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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