In a shifting global landscape marked by increasing economic nationalism, tariff wars and the strategic weaponization of trade, Europe’s fashion industry may find itself dangerously unprepared. This was the warning from French economist Sébastien Jean, who addressed professionals in the French textile and clothing sector on September 24.

The Fédération de la Maille et de la Lingerie invited Sébastien Jean—associate director of the Geoeconomics and Geofinance Initiative at IFRI (Institut Français des Relations Internationales) and professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers (CNAM)—to speak at the event. His keynote addressed the evolving global order reshaped by former U.S. President Donald Trump and examined how Europe now finds itself squeezed between two dominant global powers.

“In the trauma of the post-war period, the European Union was built as a project to dilute the power of individual countries. The current return to power politics runs counter to these values and makes it difficult to advance our interests in a more confrontational environment,” Jean said. He pointed out that Europe also suffers from insufficient investment, while remaining dependent on imported raw materials and exporting finished goods.

Even as the United States maintains a power struggle with China while easing tariffs for neighbors like Mexico and Canada, many other nations are contending with tariff rates hovering around 15%. “While some countries are being hit in sometimes baffling ways, such as Switzerland, Brazil and India, the European Union is one of the better-placed markets, contrary to what has been said,” he added.

Jean emphasized that the U.S. has managed to make others pay for its economic “suzerainty” without triggering a recession since April’s so-called “Liberation Day.” However, he cast doubt on Washington’s long-term objective of reviving domestic industry through protectionism.

“In the United States, industry generates 13 million jobs, compared with 30 million in Europe and 120 million in China,” Jean noted. “Washington’s confrontational posture therefore affords considerable leverage in the short term, but it can undermine the country’s position with its allies, weakening trade agreements with its own neighbors.”

The age of hostile interdependence

Faced with the increasing weaponization of trade in the tug-of-war between global powers, Sébastien Jean calls for a shift in mindset. Today’s economic conflicts are no longer just about market forces but also about diplomatic confrontation, and in some cases, geopolitical invasions—where political goals eclipse financial logic.

Jean explained that the phase of globalization driven by supply chains from the 1990s until the 2008 financial crisis was followed by a period of stabilization—during which China emerged as a serious economic rival to the United States. Now, according to Jean, we are entering a new era initiated by Washington: one of “hostile interdependence.” Global trade is becoming increasingly fractured and unpredictable, eroding trust in trade agreements.

Uncertainty, Jean argues, is now the norm. “With globalization, the rule was simple: you sourced wherever it was cheapest. Now, when your supply depends on third parties, you can no longer rely solely on the market. Securing your supply chain has become the overriding imperative,” he explained.

While the event offered no definitive answers about the future of the global economy, textile and clothing professionals present expressed a shared unease over the unpredictability of the coming years. This concern arises at a time when the industry is already being disrupted—whether by instability in access to free information, the rise of artificial intelligence and quantum computing, or a looming demographic crisis: two-thirds of the global population now live in countries below the population replacement rate.