Europe’s luxury companies, from LVMH to Hermes and L’Oreal, are tentatively pointing to signs of a revival in China, but are also cautious about calling the turn on one of their biggest markets after a two-year slump.
L’Oreal’s beauty brands include Lancôme – Divulgação
The $400 billion luxury sector has been hit hard by the downturn in China, which accounts for around a third of global luxury sales as Chinese shoppers snapped up Louis Vuitton and Birkin bags in Shanghai malls as well as in New York and London.
Now there are glimmers of hope that the worst may be over even though China’s troubles continue, with economic growth that is likely to have slowed to a one-year low in the third quarter as a prolonged property downturn and trade tensions hit demand.
LVMH’s more upbeat sales report last week spurred an $80 billion rally in luxury shares on optimism about a China revival, but luxury companies reporting this week have painted a mixed picture.
“I’m always very careful about China because one quarter doesn’t make a trend. But overall the market has gone into positive territory,” L’Oreal chief executive Nicolas Hieronimus said after the company reported its first China growth in two years, though missed sales forecasts, sending its shares down around 6% on Wednesday.
Hieronimus said the key driver had been the beauty group’s luxury division, which includes high-end brands like Lancome and Helena Rubinstein skincare. He said investors should not get over-excited given China’s tough economic conditions. The big focus was the mega Singles Day shopping festival on November 11. “Many times at the end of the year it’s between China’s 11/11 and the holiday season in America and Europe. So fingers crossed,” he said.
French luxury goods group Hermes on Wednesday flagged a “very slight improvement” in China, but its third-quarter sales came in below expectations, hitting its shares which fell more than 4%. Eric du Halgouet, executive vice-president Finance, told analysts that the important October Golden Week holiday in Mainland China had seen “more dynamic activity”.
“We can’t extrapolate to the entire quarter, but it’s an encouraging sign,” he said, adding there had been a marginal improvement in foot traffic helped by a focus on higher-value products from more expensive watches to jewellery. “That said, we must remain cautious,” he added. “There are some positive signs, such as the evolution of stock markets and the stabilisation of the real estate market in certain major cities. These are elements that are encouraging us.”
The focus on high-end luxury could curb the benefits for more mainstream luxury and consumer product companies, which are under pressure in China as consumers shift to local brands and tighten their belts given general economic uncertainty. Deutsche Bank said in a research note that companies like L’Oreal had limited upside in China with credit growth waning, and growth skewed towards certain provinces.
LVMH has been the most bullish so far on China. The luxury group’s shares had their best day in over two decades last week after signs of improved demand in mainland China where sales turned positive for the first time this year.
Cecile Cabanis, LVMH chief financial officer, said last week China was stabilising, with mid-to-high single-digit local growth. Chinese tourist spending was still sliding but less than before. There were signs of restocking of cognac brand VSOP.
She said Vuitton had seen a “very steep improvement” in China sales, while Dior and Sephora had seen a better performance. “It’s very encouraging,” she said, though highlighted that the economic picture in China had not changed fundamentally. “We still have the real estate market, which is complex. We still have a high unemployment,” Cabanis said. “So we consider it’s still going to take time until we have a rebound on China as a whole.”
What’s been a good year for Outlet Shopping at The O2 has just got better. The centre, linked closely to the O2 entertainment arena in the Greenwich Peninsular, southeast London, has opened two more new stores — fashion retailer TM Lewin and jewellery brand Lovisa — while also adding a recently-upsized unit for sportswear brand New Balance.
Image: TM Lewin
It all adds up to “growing momentum” for an outlet shopping destination that’s “on track for a stellar end to 2025” having enjoyed a 23% uplift in sales throughout November vs 2024, and footfall up 24% across the whole scheme, it said.
British heritage brand TM Lewin’s 1,827 sq ft store becomes the retailer’s only outlet location after returning to physical retail earlier this year. The space offers the brand’s range of shirts, suits, and accessories.
Dan Ferris, managing director at TM Lewin, said: “Our re-entry into physical retail has been a big move for us this year, and we have carefully selected locations where we believe our stores can get the best experience, regular customers, and be part of a community.”
Also making its outlet debut, Lovisa will open a 1,722 sq ft unit, adjacent to fashion retailers Dune London and Kurt Geiger, becoming the destination’s second dedicated jewellery retailer. It’s arrival supports the venue as a draw for accessories with demand “up 38% over November vs the same period in 2024”.
The store will offer its full range of necklaces, earrings and rings as well as its piercing facilities.
Long-standing tenant New Balance is also set to reinvest at the outlet, upsizing into a new 3,129 sq ft unit. The space will sport the brand’s new store concept, with additional space for wider stock collections.
Louisa Dalgleish, leasing director at Outlet Shopping at The O2, added: “As a destination already full of leading retail, the fact that we continue to attract such strong brands for their outlet debuts speaks volumes about our sustained momentum. Our success is a direct result of our collaborative landlord approach and the strength of our tenant mix, and our positive results throughout November are a clear indication that things show no sign of slowing down, with us remaining firmly front of mind for new entries into the outlet market.”
The combination of gold and share prices soaring in unison is a phenomenon not seen in at least half a century and raises questions of a potential bubble in both, global central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements, says.
Gold seized included coins, bars, and jewellery (photo for illustrative purposes only) – REUTERS/ Ajay Verma/File Photo/File Photo
While equity markets continue to be driven by AI and tech gains, gold’s 60% surge this year is set to be its biggest since 1979, fuelling debate about whether its traditional role as a safe-haven asset has changed. “Gold has behaved very differently this year compared to its usual pattern,” Hyun Song Shin, economic adviser and head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the BIS said as it released its final report of the year on Monday. “The interesting phenomenon this time has been that gold has become much more like a speculative asset.”
Dubbed the central bank to the world’s central banks, the BIS has given regular warnings about potential stock market bubbles in recent years, but its concern around the co-movement with gold is two-fold. Where would investors shelter if stocks and gold both crash. And what could it mean for central banks and other reserve managers given some have been heavy buyers of gold.
The BIS’ analysis concluded that this year has been the first time gold and the S&P 500 have jointly exhibited “explosive behaviour” in the last 50 years. Not only is gold up 60% this year, it is up more than 150% since 2022 when the post-Covid pandemic surge in inflation began to impact markets, alongside Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions on Moscow.
Another possible bubble warning sign is that retail investors have also been piling in. Gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) prices have been consistently trading at a premium relative to their net asset value (NAV) this year, signalling “strong buying pressure coupled with impediments to arbitrage,” the BIS said.
Central banks’ purchases have “clearly set a very firm tone in the price of gold,” Shin added. “Whenever you have prices actually doing quite well, you will see other investors jumping in, and certainly retail investors have also taken part (in the rally), and not just in gold”.
The BIS gave a broader warning too about the “growing fragility” of the risk-on environment amid the concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) valuations and the recent 20% dives in cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. The European Central Bank and Bank of England have both raised their own AI bubble concerns in recent weeks and the risk of an abrupt burst if investors’ rosy expectations are not met.
Shin said the profits being made by the AI firms- now spending enormous amounts on data centres- was an important difference between now and the “dotcom bubble” of the early 2000s when firms weren’t making money. The “fundamental question,” however, is whether those expenditures will be seen as being justified in the long run, Shin said, adding that the other key determinant for markets will be how the global economy holds up next year. “So far, activity has been surprisingly resilient,” Shin said.
The BIS is also watching where the dollar goes from here. This year it is headed for its biggest annual drop since the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2007. “After the April episode (when US President Donald Trump announced sweeping trade tariff plans), the dollar has been relatively stable,” Shin said. “I think the hedging behaviour of non-US investors is going to be a very, very important input into how markets will co-move from here.”
Share purchases in key companies are always interesting but we wouldn’t normally mention anyone buying a relatively small amount of shares, especially not an amount adding out to ‘only’ £75,000.
Image: Dr Martens
But given that the company concerned saw fit to announce the purchase itself and given that the company is in the middle of a major turnaround, it’s of more interest than it might usually be.
Dr Martens announced on Monday that Robert Hanson, who joined the board as an independent non-executive director in March, has purchased 96,000 shares in Dr Martens – worth over £75,000.
Share purchases by insiders are particularly significant given that those insiders tend to have the best view of how the company is faring with its turnaround and an individual committing a significant sum of their own money is particularly interesting.
Hanson currently serves as CEO of The Duckhorn Portfolio. His previous roles include EVP and president of Constellation Brands’ Wine & Spirits, president of Americas at Levi’s as well as CEO roles at American Eagle Outfitters and John Hardy.
He purchased 96,000 ordinary shares at a price of £0.7886 per share. The buy suggests he believes that the shares, which are much lower than their all-time high of £5+, represent good value and should rise.
Dr Martens is currently working through a recovery from a major period of weakness and it seems to be yielding results. Its first half update in November showed progress, with America recovering in particular even though EMEA still showed weakness.
A week later, it also announced the opening of its new Soho, London flagship and that’s a key development. The store “represents the most elevated expression of the… brand to date”. The first-ever ‘beacon’ store is on Brewer Street with its two floors spanning 3,400 sq ft to make it the brand’s biggest UK flagship – “built to bring the people and product of Dr Martens together”.
Politics8 years ago