The UK’s official statistics agency released its November sales report on Friday and it wasn’t great. But perhaps more useful was the CBI’s holiday trading retail report as its showed how retailers are faring just about now.

And the news? Its distributive trades survey showed retailers are facing “bleak holiday trading as [the] sales outlook darkens”.

The survey is based on the weighted number of retailers who said sales fell, stayed static or rose, regardless of whether those rises or falls were big or small.

It showed that retail sales volumes fell “at an accelerated rate in the year to December, extending a period of weakness that began in mid-2023”.

And the New Year is “expected to start on a gloomy note for the retail sector. Retailers anticipate that annual sales will fall sharply next month, with expectations at their weakest since March 2021”.

Overall, a balance of 44% sales sales fall, worse than the 32% in November, with 57% expecting the downturn expected to deepen in January.

Sales for the time of year were judged to be “poor” in December, to a greater extent than last month (-31% from -20% in November). Next month’s sales are set to similarly disappoint against seasonal norms (-34%). 

Online retail sales volumes also declined at a moderate rate in the year to December, following two consecutive months of growth (-12% from +13% in November). Sales are expected to contract at a steep pace next month (-42%). 

Martin Sartorius, Principal Economist, CBI, said:  “Retailers reported that annual sales volumes fell rapidly in December, as weak consumer confidence contributed to softer trading conditions in the lead-up to Christmas. Firms do not anticipate any relief in the New Year, with sales expectations deteriorating to their weakest in over four years.”