Environmental Defense Fund raises concerns about natural gas impact on Florida’s energy affordability

Rising and unstable natural gas costs pose a $21 billion affordability threat to Florida’s families and businesses by 2034, according to a new report commissioned by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF).

The EQ Research analysis concludes that higher energy bills are directly linked to Florida’s reliance on natural gas.

And future natural gas prices are predicted to fluctuate. To determine the impact on Floridians, the study used cost projections from 2025-2034 based on scenarios from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2025 Annual Energy Outlook.

Under the base case scenario, natural gas prices are projected to rise from less than $4 per million BTU (the standard unit to measure heat energy from natural gas) in 2025 to $5 per million BTU by 2034.

Those price increases could push Florida household budgets and businesses to their limits, EDF leaders warned.

“Affordability is a top concern for Floridians” said Dawn Shirreffs, Florida Director of the Environmental Defense Fund. “Few families and businesses can absorb these kinds of price spikes.”

The report’s authors note that given the surge in energy demand from artificial intelligence data centers and other Southeast utilities’ plans to meet that demand with more natural gas generation, the base case forecast may understate the upward pressure on gas prices.

That presents major problems for Floridians dealing with cost concerns, said David Cranston, Florida Energy Policy Manager at the EDF.

“Florida’s dependence on costly natural gas is currently at 75% and predicted to remain high,” Cranston said.

“This research demonstrates that diversifying energy sources is a critical hedge to protect against volatile fuel costs that hit residents and small businesses the hardest. The Sunshine State must continue to aggressively build solar to stabilize Floridians’ electric bills and reduce costs.”

A survey showed that 82% of consumers in Florida are frustrated by high energy costs in the state. Solar remains the lowest-cost source for generating electricity and is about 20% to 28% less expensive than natural gas, EDF said in a news release.

“Home-grown, renewable energy provides a more cost-effective way to meet Florida’s energy demands,” Shirreffs noted. “We applaud Florida’s investor-owned utilities for making historic investments in solar power generation which will reduce Florida’s dependence on natural gas and lower consumer risk.”

As Florida’s population grows and energy needs rise, EDF researchers say that expanding solar and renewable energy will be essential to maintaining the state’s economic competitiveness.