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Elon Musk delivered on Tesla’s ‘mission impossible’ goals before—but the targets for his $1 trillion pay package are even more delusional

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On Sept. 5, the Tesla board unveiled an all-new, long-term compensation package for Elon Musk that advertised far and away the biggest numbers in the annals of CEO pay. Put simply, if the EV maker’s CEO hits all the targets, he’d pocket a total payout of $1 trillion over anywhere from mid-2030 to 2035. The template rightly won kudos in the business press and among Wall Street analysts as fabulously friendly to shareholders, who’d garner sumptuous rewards on the order of their winnings in Tesla’s bygone great days.

Investors fondly recall that it was indeed the last pay deal from 2018 where Musk famously delivered on seemingly “mission impossible” goals that sent the stock on a moonshot and handed him tens of billions of dollars in Tesla stock. They’re clearly hoping for something resembling a repeat. The news lifted Tesla’s shares at the start of trading on Sept. 5 by around 5%.

An apt nickname for the fresh plan: Fantasyland. For the most part, the targets are so gigantic that given Tesla’s currently poor results and declining prospects, the chances that Musk will achieve even the lowest bogeys look highly unlikely, and the probability he’ll capture the elevated ones virtually zilch. What’s still inflating Tesla’s stock price are Musk’s extravagant claims for hugely profitable products, from FSD (Full Self-Driving) software to robotaxis to humanoid robots, that are constantly getting delayed, and none of which are yet reaching customers. What will matter going forward are the net earnings and cash flows that Tesla’s bedrock auto franchise generate, and the comp construct’s stretch numbers are so mind-bogglingly elastic that it wouldn’t be surprising if they’re more demoralizing than inspiring for Elon Musk.

Musk’s pay is best described as ‘shooting for the moon’

Tesla presented the program in its annual proxy statement filed on Sept. 5. A “special committee” headed by chairman Robyn Denholm, former CFO of Juniper Networks, and Kathleen Wilson-Thompson, a top HR exec, designed it, and its description in the documents reads like a subtext for “Hey, Elon, you’re demanding all this voting power, you’re making promises like Superman, now prove you can fly!” It’s important to grasp the context of where Musk’s past and current pay schemes stand now. In 2024, a Delaware court invalidated the towering 2018 version that was so successful for both Musk and shareholders. The company and the CEO are now appealing that decision. In early August, Tesla presented a contingency plan that will only take hold if the Tesla side loses the appeal.

That backup arrangement aims to restore much of what Musk would lose if the Delaware ruling stands, by granting him shares now worth around $31 billion if he remains as either CEO or chief of product development for the next two years; he can’t sell the grants until mid-2030.

This all-new long-term award comes on top of that $30 billion–plus “makeup” arrangement. In the proxy, it’s characterized in effusive terms, of a type seldom seen in these usually dry documents. Denholm and Wilson-Thompson characterize the objective as creating “the most valuable company in history” and laud the standards as “even more aspirational” than the 2018 plan, a claim that’s astounding since that cliff-scaler would seem impossible to top. “In 2018, Elon had to grow Tesla by billions; in 2025, he has to grow Tesla by trillions,” write Denholm and Wilson-Thompson. In a CNBC interview, Denholm acknowledged that some might view the challenges as too great to be taken seriously, and stated that the initiative amounts to “shooting for the moon.”

The new plan is structured much like its famed 2018 predecessor

In the proxy, the board stresses that Musk is seeking a far greater ownership stake and that the best way to motivate the maverick is providing him a path to achieving that aim. The directors’ view: “We believe Elon is the only person capable of leading Tesla at this critical inflection point.” They cite the “public statements that voting influence is critically important to him if he is tasked with developing AI products for Tesla,” adding that the carrot of a big jump in ownership should rally Musk into “achieving extraordinary performance milestones while remaining at Tesla.”

The basic design mirrors the architecture of its forerunner from 2018. Unlocking the grants resembles the process for opening a safety-deposit box: It requires two keys. The plan sets 12 goals for market cap, starting at $2 trillion, and rising after that by $50 billion increments to an incredible $8.5 trillion, double what the world’s most valuable enterprise, Nvidia, sells for today. But the construct also requires a second key that consists of notching 12 operating metrics, six for rising steps of Ebitda, and six others for such achievements as putting 1 million robotaxis in circulation and selling 10 million FSD subscriptions.

Matching a market share target with any one operational metric would award Musk an additional 1% of Tesla’s shares. Scaling the $8.5 trillion market cap summit and clinching all dozen product objectives would bring that $1 trillion windfall. Right now, Musk owns around 13% of Tesla’s shares, and he’s said publicly he craves getting to 25%. Ringing the 24 combined market cap plus operational bells, worth 1% each, would lift Musk to his cherished 25% prize. The grants come in the form of restricted shares; the shares gained by hitting the twin targets would all vest at once after seven and a half years, and Musk would only pocket them if he stays on as either CEO or head of product development over that span. He could get a longer vesting runway if he stays on for 10 years.

The targets are so towering they risk being more depressing than motivating

The plan faces a fundamental problem: Tesla as an ongoing enterprise is faring so poorly that getting from where it stands now to the kind of numbers needed to win Musk what he most wants—loads more ownership—looks like a leap too far. This reporter has written several stories assessing the size of what I call the Musk Magic Premium. That’s the part of the valuation based not on Tesla’s current earnings, but Musk’s promises for world-transforming innovations stuck in the pipeline. What makes the ambitions as presented in the proxy so unachievable: They demand huge stock gains piled on top of a valuation that’s already flying free of the fundamentals.

Under the new pay package, look at what Musk must achieve just to grab the first tranche of 1%. And that 1% would be worth plenty, around $20 billion. One key should be relatively easy to turn: achieving a cumulative 2 million in EV sales. But what about notching the lowest market-cap target of $2 trillion by early 2033?

It goes back to the earnings needed to get there. Once again, let’s give Tesla a P/E of 30 seven and a half years from now. Do the math, and you get to mandated earnings of $67 billion. That means multiplying today’s core profits of $3.7 billion by 18, or roughly 50% a year. And $3.7 billion probably overstates Tesla’s sustainable earnings, since they’re dropping quarter by quarter. The cash flow outlook is bad as well. After subtracting the reg credits, Tesla generated zero free cash flow in the past two quarters.

The Tesla board is dreaming if it believes this pay deal will uncork another wonder like its predecessor of 2018. The board is practically taunting Musk by saying, “You want that huge new chunk of the company? Go prove you do. Boost the share price enough to deserve it.” Elon Musk did it once. But as the saying goes, even for Elon Musk, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Gates Foundation, OpenAI unveil $50 million ‘Horizon1000’ initiative to boost healthcare in Africa through AI

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In a major effort to close the global health equity gap, the Gates Foundation and OpenAI are partnering on “Horizon1000,” a collaborative initiative designed to integrate artificial intelligence into healthcare systems across Sub-Saharan Africa. Backed by a joint $50 million commitment in funding, technology, and technical support, the partnership aims to equip 1,000 primary healthcare clinics with AI tools by 2028, Bill Gates announced in a statement on his Gates Notes, where he detailed how he sees AI playing out as a “gamechanger” for expanding access to quality care.

The initiative will begin operations in Rwanda, working directly with African leaders to pioneer the deployment of AI in health settings. With a core principle of the Foundation being to ensure that people in developing regions do not have to wait decades for new technologies to reach them, the goal in this partnership is to reach 1,000 primary health care clinics and their surrounding communities by 2028.

“A few years ago, I wrote that the rise of artificial intelligence would mark a technological revolution as far-reaching for humanity as microprocessors, PCs, mobile phones, and the Internet,” Gates wrote. “Everything I’ve seen since then confirms my view that we are on the cusp of a breathtaking global transformation.”

Addressing a Critical Workforce Shortage

The impetus for Horizon1000, Gates said, is a desperate and persistent shortage of healthcare workers in poorer regions, a bottleneck that threatens to stall 25 years of progress in global health. While child mortality has been halved and diseases like polio and HIV are under better control, the lack of personnel remains a critical vulnerability.

Sub-Saharan Africa currently faces a shortfall of nearly 6 million healthcare workers, ” a gap so large that even the most aggressive hiring and training efforts can’t close it in the foreseeable future.” This deficit creates an untenable situation where overwhelmed staff must triage high volumes of patients without sufficient administrative support or modern clinical guidance. The consequences are severe: the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that low-quality care is a contributing factor in 6 million to 8 million deaths annually in low- and middle-income countries.

Rwanda, the first beneficiary of the Horizon1000 initiative, illustrates the scale of the challenge. The nation currently has only one healthcare worker per 1,000 people, significantly below the WHO recommendation of four per 1,000. Gates noted that at the current pace of hiring and training, it would take 180 years to close that gap. “As part of the Horizon1000 initiative, we aim to accelerate the adoption of AI tools across primary care clinics, within communities, and in people’s homes,” Gates wrote. “These AI tools will support health workers, not replace them.”

AI as the ‘Third Major Discovery

Gates noted comments from Rwanda’s Minister of Health Dr. Sabin Nsanzimana, who recently announced the launch of an AI-powered Health Intelligence Center in Kigali. Nsanzimana described AI as the third major discovery to transform medicine, following vaccines and antibiotics, Gates noted, saying that he agrees with this view. “If you live in a wealthier country and have seen a doctor recently, you may have already seen how AI is making life easier for health care workers,” Gates wrote. “Instead of taking notes constantly, they can now spend more time talking directly to you about your health, while AI transcribes and summarizes the visit.”

In countries with severe infrastructure limitations, he wrote, these capabilities will foster systems that help solve “generational challenges” that were previously unaddressable.

As the initiative rolls out over the next few years, the Gates Foundation plans to collaborate closely with innovators and governments in Sub-Saharan Africa. Gates wrote that he himself plans to visit the region soon to see these AI solutions in action, maintaining a focus on how technology can meet the most urgent needs of billions in low- and middle-income countries.



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On Netflix’s earnings call, co-CEOs can’t quell fears about the Warner Bros. bid

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When it comes to creating irresistible storylines, Netflix, the home of Stranger Things and The Crown, is second to none. And as the streaming video giant delivered its quarterly earnings report on Tuesday, executives were in top storytelling form, pitching what they promise will be a smash hit: the acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery.

The company’s co-CEOs, Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters, said the deal, which values Warner Brothers Discovery at $83 billion, will accelerate its own core streaming business while helping it expand into TV and the theatrical film business. 

“This is an exciting time in the business. Lots of innovation, lots of competition,” Sarandos enthused on Tuesday’s earnings conference call. Netflix has a history of successful transformation and of pivoting opportunistically, he reminded the audience: Once upon a time, its main business entailed mailing DVDs in red envelopes to customers’ homes. 

Despite Sarandos’ confident delivery, however, the pitch didn’t land with investors. The company’s stock, which was already down 15% since Netflix announced the deal in early December, sank another 4.9% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. 

Netflix’s financial results for the final quarter of 2025 were fine. The company beat EPS expectations by a penny, and said it now has 325 million paid subscribers and a worldwide total audience nearing 1 billion. Its 2026 revenue outlook, of between $50.7 billion and $51.7 billion, was right on target.  

Still, investors are worried that the Warner Bros. deal will force Netflix to compete outside its lane, causing management to lose focus. The fact that Netflix will temporarily halt its share buybacks in order to accumulate cash to help finance the deal, as it disclosed towards the bottom of Tuesday’s shareholder letter, probably didn’t help matters. 

And given that there’s a rival offer for Warner Bros from Paramount Skydance, it’s not unreasonable for investors to worry that Netflix may be forced into an expensive bidding war. (Even though Warner Brothers Discovery has accepted the Netflix offer over Paramount’s, no one believes the story is over—not even Netflix, which updated its $27.75 per share offer to all-cash, instead of stock and cash, hours earlier on Tuesday in order to provide WBD shareholders with “greater value certainty.”) 

Investors are wary; will regulators balk?

Warner Brothers investors are not the only audience that Netflix needs to win over. The deal must be blessed by antitrust regulators—a prospect whose outcome is harder to predict than ever in the Trump administration.

Sarandos and Peters laid out the case Tuesday for why they believe the deal will get through the regulatory process, framing the deal as a boon for American jobs.

“This is going to allow us to significantly expand our production capacity in the U.S. and to keep investing in original content in the long term, which means more opportunities for creative talent and more jobs,” Sarandos said.

Referring to Warner Brothers’ television and film businesses, he added that “these folks have extensive experience and expertise. We want them to stay on and run those businesses. We’re expanding content creation not collapsing it.”

It’s a compelling story. But the co-CEOs may have neglected to study the most important script of all when it comes to getting government approval in the current administration; they forgot to recite the Trump lines. 

The example has been set over the past 12 months by peers such as Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg. The latter, with his company facing various federal regulatory threats, began publicly praising the Trump administration on an earnings call last January. 

And Nvidia’s Huang has already seen real dividends from a similar strategy. The chip company CEO has praised Trump repeatedly on earnings calls, in media interviews, and in conference keynote speeches, calling him “America’s unique advantage” in AI. Since then, the U.S. ban on selling Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to China has been rescinded. The praise may have been coincidental to the outcome, but it certainly didn’t hurt.

In contrast, the president went unmentioned on Tuesday’s call. How significant Netflix’s omission of a Trump call-out turns out to be remains to be seen; maybe it won’t matter at all. But it’s worth noting that its competitor for Warner Bros., Paramount Skydance, is helmed by David Ellison, an outspoken Trump supporter. 

It’s a storyline that Netflix should have seen coming, and itmay still send the company back to rewrite.



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Americans are paying nearly all of the tariff burden as international exports die down, study finds

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After nearly a year of promises tariffs would boost the U.S. economy while other countries footed the bill, a new study shows almost all of the tariff burden is falling on American consumers. 

Americans are paying 96% of the costs of tariffs as prices for goods rise, according to research published Monday by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank. 

In April 2025 when President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs, he claimed: “For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike.” But the report suggests tariffs have actually cost Americans more money.

Trump has long used tariffs as leverage in non-trade political disputes. Over the weekend, Trump renewed his trade war in Europe after Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland sent troops for training exercises in Greenland. The countries will be hit with a 10% tariff starting on Feb. 1 that is set to rise to 25% on June 1, if a deal for the U.S. to buy Greenland is not reached. 

On Monday, Trump threatened a 200% tariff on French wine, after French President Emmanuel Macron refused to join Trump’s “Board of Peace” for Gaza, which has a $1 billion buy-in for permanent membership. 

“The claim that foreign countries pay these tariffs is a myth,” wrote Julian Hinz, research director at the Kiel Institute and an author of the study. “The data show the opposite: Americans are footing the bill.” 

The research shows export prices stayed the same, but the volume has collapsed. After imposing a 50% tariff on India in August, exports to the U.S. dropped 18% to 24%, compared to the European Union, Canada, and Australia. Exporters are redirecting sales to other markets, so they don’t need to cut sales or prices, according to the study.

“There is no such thing as foreigners transferring wealth to the U.S. in the form of tariffs,” Hinz told The Wall Street Journal

For the study, Hinz and his team analyzed more than 25 million shipment records between January 2024 through November 2025 that were worth nearly $4 trillion.They found exporters absorbed just 4% of the tariff burden and American importers are largely passing on the costs to consumers. 

Tariffs have increased customs revenue by $200 billion, but nearly all of that comes from American consumers. The study’s authors likened this to a consumption tax as wealth transfers from consumers and businesses to the U.S. Treasury.   

Trump has also repeatedly claimed tariffs would boost American manufacturing, butthe economy has shown declines in manufacturing jobs every month since April 2025, losing 60,000 manufacturing jobs between Liberation Day and November. 

The Supreme Court was expected to rule as soon as today on whether Trump’s use of emergency powers to levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was legal. The court initially announced they planned to rule last week and gave no explanation for the delay. 

Although justices appeared skeptical of the administration’s authority during oral arguments in November, economists predict the Trump administration will find alternative ways to keep the tariffs.



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