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Elliott Management says crypto is facing an ‘inevitable collapse’

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Famed activist investor Elliott Management sent investors a letter warning of a possible crypto bubble fueled in part by President Donald Trump’s having promoted the technology. 

The letter, which was first reported by the Financial Times, cautioned investors that the “inevitable collapse” of the crypto bubble “could wreak havoc in ways we cannot yet anticipate.” Elliott also warned that the White House’s embrace of cryptocurrency would weaken the role of the U.S. dollar in the global economy by diminishing its role as the world’s primary reserve currency.

The size of the crypto bubble and therefore the risks it posed to investors and the economy had increased sharply recently because of its “perceived proximity to the White House,” Elliott said in the letter. 

Elliott declined to comment. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 

During the campaign, Trump regularly declared his support for cryptocurrencies and his desire to see the U.S. become the dominant country in the industry. The president has also been involved in several crypto ventures including crypto platform World Liberty Financial and launching a memecoin of his own. In addition, his media company announced plans earlier this week to develop a fintech service that would allow for the trading of digital assets, among other things. 

Since Trump’s election win in November, crypto prices have soared along with stocks associated with the industry as well as U.S. markets overall. Just a few days after taking office, Trump signed an executive order that began the process for creating a national reserve of digital assets. 

Elliott said it had “never seen a market like this” with so many investors pumping money into the market based purely on speculative hype. Elliott also warned against a surge in prices for speculative assets it believed had “no substance.” That category of asset, which includes memecoins, has no underlying value and is instead only fueled by investors’ hope that they’ll be able to find someone else who will pay a higher price for it than they did. 

“Crypto is ground zero” for these speculative assets, Elliott wrote in the letter. 

In Elliott’s view, this had driven flocks of investors toward crypto. But many of them were merely hoping that the market would continue to go up. They are “acting like a crowd of sports bettors,” the letter read. 

But the crypto bubble doesn’t just pose a risk to individual investors, who are at risk of seeing their investments wiped out should a bubble pop. The support for cryptocurrencies from the White House, and specifically the effort to create a national reserve, would harm the U.S. dollar, according to Elliott, which also said that any support from public officials for policies that might result in “marginalizing the dollar” was “profoundly dangerous.” 

Elliott is no stranger to combative market dynamics. The firm is a powerful activist investor, founded by Paul Singer, that has often taken on companies in extended boardroom battles. As an activist investor, Elliott often identifies companies that are not performing as well as they could be and believes it can right the ship.

The firm has even taken on similar postures with governments. Most memorably in Argentina it engaged in a 15-year legal battle with the government over missed debt payments as one of the country’s creditors. Elliott eventually reached a $2 billion settlement with the Argentine government.

On the new Fortune Crypto Playbook vodcast, Fortune’s senior crypto experts decode the biggest forces shaping crypto today. Watch or listen now



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Binance has been proudly nomadic for years. A new announcement suggests it’s chosen an HQ

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For years, Binance has dodged questions about where it plans to establish a corporate headquarters. On Monday, the world’s largest crypto exchange made an announcement that indicates it has chosen a location: Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.

In its announcement, Binance reported that it has secured three global financial licenses within Abu Dhabi Global Market, a special economic zone inside the Emirati city. The licenses regulate three different prongs of the exchange’s business: its exchange, clearinghouse, and broker dealer services. The three regulated entities are named Nest Exchange Limited, Nest Clearing and Custody Limited, and Nest Trading Limited, respectively.

Richard Teng, the co-CEO of Binance, declined to say whether Abu Dhabi is now Binance’s global headquarters. “But for all intents and purposes, if you look at the regulatory sphere, I think the global regulators are more concerned of where we are regulated on a global basis,” he said, adding that Abu Dhabi Global Market is where his crypto exchange’s “global platform” will be governed.

A company spokesperson declined to add more to Teng’s comments, but did not deny Fortune’s assertion that Binance appears to have chosen Abu Dhabai as its headquarters.

Corporate governance

The Abu Dhabi announcement suggests that Binance, which has for years taken pride in branding itself as a company with no fixed location, is bowing to the practical considerations that go with being a major financial firm—and the corporate governance obligations that entails.

When Changpeng Zhao, the cofounder and former CEO of Binance, launched the company in 2017, he initially established the exchange in Hong Kong. But, weeks after he registered Binance in the city, China banned cryptocurrency trading, and Zhao moved his nascent trading platform. Binance has since been itinerant. “Wherever I sit is going to be the Binance office,” Zhao said in 2020.

The location of a company’s headquarters impacts its tax obligations and what regulations it needs to follow. In 2023, after Binance reached a landmark $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, Zhao stepped down as CEO and pleaded guilty to failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program.

Teng took over and promised to implement the corporate structures—like a board of directors—that are the norm for companies of Binance’s size. Teng, who now shares the CEO role with the newly appointed Yi He, oversaw the appointment of Binance’s first board in April 2024. And he’s repeatedly telegraphed that his crypto exchange is focused on regulatory compliance.

Binance already has a strong footprint in the Emirates. It has a crypto license in Dubai, received a $2 billion investment from an Emirati venture fund in March, and, that same month, said it employed 1,000 employees in the country. 



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Leaders in Congress outperform rank-and-file lawmakers on stock trades by up to 47% a year

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Stocks held by members of Congress have been beating the S&P 500 lately, but there’s a subset of lawmakers who crush their peers: leadership.

According to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, congressional leaders outperform back benchers by up to 47% a year.

Shang-Jin Wei from Columbia University and Columbia Business School along with Yifan Zhou from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University looked at lawmakers who ascended to leadership posts, such as Speaker of the House as well as House and Senate floor leaders, whips, and conference/caucus chairs.

Between 1995 and 2021, there were 20 such leaders who made stock trades before and after rising to their posts. Wei and Zhou observed that lawmakers underperformed benchmarks before becoming leaders, then everything suddenly changed.

“Importantly, whilst we observe a huge improvement in leaders’ trading performance as they ascend to leadership roles, the matched ‘regular’ members’ stock trading performance does not improve much,” they wrote.

Leadership’s stock market edge stems in part from their ability to set the regulatory or legislation agenda, such as deciding if and when a particular bill will be put to a vote. Setting the agenda also gives leaders advanced knowledge of when certain actions will take place.

In fact, Wei and Zhou found that leaders demonstrate much better returns on stock trades that are made when their party controls their chamber.

In addition, being a leader also increases access to non-public information. The researchers said that while companies are reluctant to share such insider knowledge, they may prioritize revealing it to leaders over rank-and-file lawmakers.

Leaders earn higher returns on companies that contribute to their campaigns or are headquartered in their states, which Wei and Zhou said could be attributable to “privileged access to firm-specific information.”

The upper echelon also influences how other members of Congress vote, and the paper found that a leader’s party is much more likely to vote for bills that help firms whose stocks the leader held, or vote against bills that harmed them. And stocks owned by leadership tend to see increases in federal contract awards, especially sole-source contracts, over the following one to two years.

“These results suggest that congressional leaders may not only trade on privileged knowledge, but also shape policy outcomes to enrich themselves,” Wei and Zhou wrote.

Stock trades by congressional leaders are even predictive, forecasting higher occurrences of positive or negative corporate news over the following year, they added. In particular, stock sales predict the number of hearings and regulatory actions over the coming year, though purchases don’t.

Investors have long suspected that Washington has a special advantage on Wall Street. That’s given rise to more ETFs with political themes, including funds that track portfolios belonging to Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

And Paul Pelosi, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, even has a cult following among some investors who mimic his stock moves.

Congress has tried to crack down on members’ stock holdings. The STOCK Act of 2012 requires more timely disclosures, but some lawmakers want to ban trading completely.

A bipartisan group of House members is pushing legislation that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, dependent children, and trustees from trading individual stocks, commodities, or futures.

And this past week, a discharge petition was put forth that would force a vote in the House if it gets enough signatures.

“If leadership wants to put forward a bill that would actually do that and end the corruption, we’re all for it,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., on social media on Tuesday. “But we’re tired of the partisan games. This is the most bipartisan bipartisan thing in U.S. history, and it’s time that the House of Representatives listens to the American people.”



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Macron warns EU may hit China with tariffs over trade surplus

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French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the European Union may be forced to take “strong measures” against China, including potential tariffs, if Beijing fails to address its widening trade imbalance with the bloc.

“I’m trying to explain to the Chinese that their trade surplus isn’t sustainable because they’re killing their own clients, notably by importing hardly anything from us any more,” Macron told Les Echos newspaper in an interview published on Sunday.

“If they don’t react, in the coming months we Europeans will be obliged to take strong measures and decouple, like the US, like for example tariffs on Chinese products,” he said, adding that he had discussed the matter with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Macron has just returned from a three-day state visit in China, where he pressed for more investment as Paris seeks to recalibrate its relationship with the world’s second-largest economy. France’s goods trade deficit with China reached around €47 billion ($54.7 billion) last year, according to the French Treasury. Meanwhile, China’s goods trade surplus with the EU swelled to almost $143 billion in the first half of 2025, a record for any six-month period, according to data released by China earlier this year.

Tensions between France and China escalated last year after Paris backed the EU’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Beijing retaliated by imposing minimum price requirements on French cognac, sparking fears among pork and dairy producers that they could be targeted next.

‘Life or Death’

Macron said the US approach to China was “inappropriate” and had worsened Europe’s position by diverting Chinese goods toward the EU market.

“Today, we’re stuck between the two, and it’s a question of life or death for European industry,” Macron said, while noting that Germany — Europe’s biggest economy — doesn’t entirely share France’s stance.

In addition to Europe needing to become more competitive, the European Central Bank too has a role to play in strengthening the EU’s single market, Macron said, arguing that monetary policy should take growth and jobs into account, not just inflation, he said.

He also said the ECB’s decision to continue selling the government bonds it holds risks pushing up long-term interest rates and weighing on economic activity.

“Europe must — and wants to — remain a zone of monetary stability and credible investment,” Macron said.



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