Elijah Manley leads CD 20 Primary as most voters want Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick to resign

Elijah Manley has opened a narrow lead in the Democratic Primary for Florida’s 20th Congressional District as legal troubles weigh heavily on the incumbent.

New polling of likely Primary voters shows Manley edging Democratic U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick in multiple ballot scenarios, with a large majority of respondents saying the Congresswoman should resign following a federal indictment.

Manley is also the only Democratic candidate in CD 20 not underwater with voters.

The Pensacola-based Listener Group, in partnership with Political Matrix News, surveyed 300 likely Primary voters in Florida’s 20th Congressional District. The survey had a 3-percentage-point margin of error.

Asked whom they’d support in a matchup between Manley, Cherfilus-McCormick and repeat CD 20 challenger Dale Holness, 38% picked Manley, while 35% chose Cherfilus-McCormick and 10% preferred Holness. Thirteen percent remained undecided.

If Cherfilus-McCormick were removed from the ballot and voters had to choose between Manley and Holness, 45% would choose Manley, 33% Holness, and 22% undecided.

If Holness were to drop out instead, leaving just Manley and Cherfilus-McCormick, Manley would also hold a slight advantage, pollsters found, with 40% of Primary voter support compared to 38% for Cherfilus-McCormick and 22% undecided.

Most CD 20 Primary voters prefer the former scenario, according to the survey. Seventy percent said that, considering Cherfilus-McCormick’s indictment on charges she misappropriated millions of federal health care funds to finance her 2022 congressional campaign, she should step down to clear a path for a less legally troubled candidate.

Just 22% believe she should stay the course and continue seeking re-election.

In terms of voter sentiment, only Manley is in the black. He holds +30 favorability (42% favorable, 125 unfavorable), while Cherfilus-McCormick has -30% favorability (20% favorable, 50% unfavorable), and Holness has -15% favorability (25% favorable, 40% unfavorable).

The Listener Group conducted the poll Feb. 2-4 via mixed-mode outreach. Fifty-two percent of respondents were women.

Among women, Cherfilus-McCormick and Manley are performing closely, with no candidate consolidating a dominant majority, the pollsters found.

With men, however, Manley holds a modest edge in both the multi-candidate and head-to-head ballots.

Holness is “slightly stronger,” pollsters said, among men than women.

CD 20 spans a majority-Black area in and around western and central Broward County, with a small portion of southeast Palm Beach County. It includes all or part of Fort Lauderdale, Lake Park, Lauderdale Lakes, Lauderhill, North Lauderdale, Plantation, Pompano Beach, Riviera Beach, Sunrise and Tamarac.

It’s Florida’s most Democratic-leaning congressional district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating of D+22.

Cherfilus-McCormick, the first Haitian American woman from Florida elected to Congress, has represented CD 20 since January 2022. She won her seat in a Special Election following the death of Alcee Hastings. Last year, she was re-elected unopposed.

The 2026 Primary is Aug. 18, followed by the General Election on Nov. 3.