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Eileen Higgins leads race for Miami Mayor, but not enough to avoid a runoff

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Miami-Dade County Commissioner Eileen Higgins has significantly more support than each of her 10 opponents in the Miami Mayor’s race, but not enough to avoid a runoff, new polling shows.

Her likely one-on-one foe: Emilio González, Miami’s former City Manager.

Plantation-based firm MDW Communications surveyed 511 likely Miami voters online July 27-Aug. 1. Higgins’ political committee, Ethical Leadership for Miami, commissioned the poll, which included brief bios about each candidate.

The poll found Higgins, a Democrat, holds 36% support in the technically nonpartisan Nov. 4 contest to replace term-limited Mayor Francis Suarez — 21 percentage points more than González, a Republican who currently sits in second place.

By comparison, Miami Commissioner Joe Carollo and former Miami-Dade Commissioner Xavier Suarez, both Republicans who previously served as Miami Mayor, have 11% and 7% voter support, respectively.

Image via MDW Communications.

Former Miami Commissioner Ken Russell, the second-best-performing Democrat in the race, according to MDW’s figures, has the support of about 12% of voters.

The remainder are backing one of the race’s six other candidates or are undecided.

Higgins also boasted the strongest reputation in the field, with 74% name recognition and a net +18 favorability.

González and Russell have positive favorability too, but are less known to voters. Carollo and Suarez have stronger name IDs, but are underwater favorability-wise.

“This has rapidly evolved into a two-person race, with Commissioner Higgins in a commanding position,” MDW personnel wrote.

Image via MDW Communications.

Pollsters also queried voters about two other timely issues: the Miami Commission’s now-reversed effort to delay this year’s election to November 2026 without voter approval — a move every mayoral candidate opposed — and proposed lifetime term limits at City Hall.

Unsurprisingly, voters overwhelmingly disapproved of the election shift, which González successfully sued the city to stop last month.

Seventy-nine percent of respondents said they opposed the change, with 69% saying they “strongly oppose” elected officials moving election dates without first getting an OK from the people who put them in office.

Image via MDW Communications.

Just 11% said they supported such an action, and 9% were neutral about it.

And it looks like stricter term limits are likely coming to the city, too.

Miami Commissioners last month approved putting a question about lifetime term limits on the November ballot. MDW found it has 71% support, with just 20% of respondents saying they plan to vote down the ballot measure

Image via MDW Communications.

Forty-one percent of respondents to MDW’s poll were Democrats, while 35% were Republicans and 24% identified as third- or no-party voters. They were 58% Hispanic, 22% non-Hispanic White, 16% Black and Caribbean, and 4% “other.”

The gender makeup was 53% female, 47% male. Sixty-six percent were 55 or older, while 25% were 35-54 and 9% were 18-34.


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Early voting underway for Miami Mayor’s runoff between Eileen Higgins, Emilio González

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Early voting is underway in Miami as former County Commissioner Eileen Higgins and former City Manager Emilio González enter the final stretch of a closely watched Dec. 9 mayoral runoff.

The two candidates rose from a 13-person field Nov. 4, with Higgins winning about 36% of the vote and González taking 19.5%. Because neither surpassed 50%, Miami voters must now choose between contrasting visions for a city grappling with affordability, rising seas, political dysfunction and rapid growth.

Both promise to bring more stability and accountability to City Hall. Both say Miami’s permitting process needs fixing.

Higgins, a mechanical engineer and eight-year county commissioner with a broad, international background in government service, has emphasized affordable housing — urging the city to build on public land and create a dedicated housing trust fund — and supports expanding the City Commission from five to nine members to improve neighborhood representation.

She also backs more eco-friendly and flood-preventative infrastructure, faster park construction and better transportation connectivity and efficiency.

She opposes Miami’s 287(g) agreement with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, calling recent enforcement “inhumane and cruel,” and has pledged to serve as a full-time mayor with no outside employment while replacing City Manager Art Noriega.

González, a retired Air Force colonel, former Director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and ex-CEO of Miami International Airport, argues Miami needs an experienced administrator to fix what he calls deep structural problems.

He has made permitting reform a top priority, labeling the current system as barely functioning, and says affordability must be addressed through broader tax relief rather than relying on housing development alone.

He supports limited police cooperation with ICE and wants Miami to prepare for the potential repeal of homestead property taxes. Like Higgins, he vows to replace Noriega but opposes expanding the commission.

He also vows, if elected, to establish a “Deregulation Task Force” to unburden small businesses, prioritizing capital investments that protect Miamians, increasing the city’s police force, modernizing Miami services with technology and a customer-friendly approach, and rein in government spending and growth.

Notably, Miami’s Nov. 4 election this year might not have taken place if not for González, who successfully sued in July to stop officials from delaying its election until 2026.

The runoff has drawn national attention, with major Democrats like Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, Arizona U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego and Orange County Mayor-turned-gubernatorial candidate Jerry Demings and his wife, former Congresswoman Val Demings, backing Higgins and high-profile Republicans like President Donald Trump, Gov. Ron DeSantis and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott lining up behind González.

For both parties, Miami’s outcome is seen as a bellwether heading into a volatile 2026 cycle, in a city where growth, climate challenges and governance failures remain top concerns for nearly 500,000 residents.

Higgins, a 61-year-old Democrat who was born in Ohio and grew up in New Mexico, entered the race as the longest-serving current member of the Miami-Dade Commission. She won her seat in a 2018 Special Election and coasted back into re-election unopposed last year.

She chose to vacate her seat three years early to run for Mayor.

She worked for years in the private sector, overseeing global manufacturing in Europe and Latin America, before returning stateside to lead marketing for companies such as Pfizer and Jose Cuervo.

In 2006, she took a Director job with the Peace Corps in Belize, after which she served as a foreign service officer for the U.S. State Department under President Barack Obama, working in Mexico and in economic development areas in South Africa.

Since filing in April, Higgins raised $386,500 through her campaign account. She also amassed close to $658,000 by the end of September through her county-level political committee, Ethical Leadership for Miami. Close to a third of that sum — $175,000 — came through a transfer from her state-level PC.

She also spent about $881,000.

If elected, Higgins would make history as Miami’s first woman Mayor.

González, a 68-year-old born in Cuba, brought the most robust government background to the race. A U.S. Army veteran who rose to the rank of colonel, he served as Miami City Manager from 2017 to 2020, CEO of Miami International Airport (MIA) from 2013 to 2017 and as Director of Citizenship and Immigration Services at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under President George W. Bush.

In private life, he works as a partner at investment management firm RSMD Investco LLC. He also serves as a member of the Treasury Investment Council under the Florida Department of Financial Services.

Since filing to run for Mayor in April, he raised nearly $1.2 million and spent about $1 million.

Election Day is Tuesday.



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Paul Renner doubles down on Cory Mills critique, urges more Republicans to join him

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Mills was a day-one Byron Donalds backer in the gubernatorial race.

A former House Speaker and current candidate for Governor is leading the charge for Republicans as scandal swirls around a Congressman.

Saying the “evidence is mounting” against Rep. Cory MillsPaul Renner says other candidates for Governor should “stand up and be counted” and join him in the call for Mills to leave Congress.

Renner made the call earlier this week.

But on Friday, the Palm Coast Republican doubled down.

He spotlighted fresh reporting from Roger Sollenberger alleging that Mills’ company “appears to have illegally exported weapons while he serves in Congress, including to Ukraine,” that Mills failed to disclose conflicts of interest, “tried to fistfight other Republican members of Congress, and lied about his party stature to bully other GOP candidates out of primaries that an alleged romantic interest was running in,” and lied about his conversion to Islam.

The House Ethics Committee is already probing Mills, a New Smyrna Beach Republican, over allegations of profiting from federal defense contracts while in Congress. More recently, the Committee expanded its work to review allegations that he assaulted one ex-girlfriend and threatened to share intimate photos of another.

Other candidates have been more reticent in addressing the issue, including Rep. Byron Donalds.

“When any other members have been involved and stuff like this, my advice is the same,” said Donalds, a Naples Republican. “They need to actually spend a lot more time in the district and take stock of what’s going on at home, and make that decision with their voters.”

The response came less than a year after Mills, a New Smyrna Beach Republican, spoke at the launch of Donalds’ gubernatorial campaign.

___

Staff writer Jacob Ogles contributed reporting.



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Eileen Higgins brings out starpower as special election campaign nears close

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Prominent Democrats will be on hand at a number of stops.

Former Miami-Dade Commissioner Eileen Higgins is enlisting more big names as support at early vote stops ahead of Tuesday’s special election for Mayor, including a Senate candidate, a former Senate candidate, and a current candidate for Governor.

During her canvass kickoff at 10 a.m at Elizabeth Virrick Park, Higgins will appear with U.S. Senate Candidate Hector Mujica.

Early vote stops follow, with Higgins solo at the 11 a.m. show-up at Miami City Hall and the 11:30 at the Shenandoah Library.

From there, big names from Orlando will be with the candidate.

Orange County Mayor and candidate for Florida Governor Jerry Demings and former Congresswoman Val Demings will appear with Higgins at the Liberty Square Family & Friends Picnic (2 p.m.), Charles Hadley Park (3 p.m.), and the Carrie P. Meek Senior and Cultural Center (3:30 p.m.)

Higgins, who served on the County Commission from 2018 to 2025, is competing in a runoff for the city’s mayoralty against former City Manager Emilio González. The pair topped 11 other candidates in Miami’s Nov. 4 General Election, with Higgins, a Democrat, taking 36% of the vote and González, a Republican, capturing 19.5%.

To win outright, a candidate had to receive more than half the vote. Miami’s elections are technically nonpartisan, though party politics frequently still play into races.



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