The dust has barely settled from Miami’s General Election, where Miami-Dade Commissioner Eileen Higgins and former City Manager Emilio González clinched their spots in a runoff for city Mayor.
But according to newly released internal polling numbers, the winner of that Dec. 9 clash will almost assuredly be Higgins.
Pollsters found that voters prefer Higgins over González by a more than 2-to-1 ratio.
Asked whom they support in a head-to-head matchup, 49.84% respondents to the survey side with Higgins, while 23.78% pick González. The remaining 26.38% say they are undecided.
Higgins, a Democrat, took 36% of the vote in the first round of voting compared to 19.5% for González, a Republican.
Image via MDW Communications.
Plantation-based MDW Communicationssurveyed 307 likely Miami voters Oct. 14-18 using a sample of 41% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 24% independents. Sixty percent of respondents identified as Hispanic, while 25% said they were non-Hispanic White, 8% said they were Black or of Caribbean descent, and 6% claimed “other” ancestry.
Fifty-one percent of respondents were men. Age-wise, 67% were over 55, 29% were 35 to 54 and 4% were 18 to 34.
Higgins’ political committee, Ethical Leadership for Miami, commissioned the poll, which had a 6-percentage-point margin of error.
MDW’s track record for predicting Miami’s election results this year has been solid. In August, a survey by the firm found Higgins led the field of mayoral candidates by a large margin — 36% support, the exact share of the vote she ultimately got — but not large enough to avoid a runoff.
That poll also identified González as her likely runoff foe and found former City Commissioner Ken Russell closely trailing him in third place. Russell placed third Tuesday less than 2 points behind González, with 17.6% of the vote.
MDW’s August survey also found there was overwhelming support for Referendum 4 to impose lifetime term limits on Miami Mayors and City Commissioners of two full terms.
The survey showed 71% support for the measure. It scored 79% support Tuesday.
