Economic analysis warns workforce disruptions could cost Florida $9B

As someone who speaks daily with business owners across Florida, I hear the same concerns repeatedly: workforce reliability, rising costs, and maintaining stability in an uncertain environment.

For small businesses, particularly Hispanic-owned businesses, even brief disruptions can have significant consequences. When employees miss work, schools close, or illness spreads through a community, the impact isn’t theoretical. It affects payroll, operations, and customer confidence.

That’s why a new Florida-specific economic analysis by the Regional Economic Consulting Group, founded by former senior economists from Florida’s executive and legislative branches, deserves attention.

The report estimates that such disruptions could reduce Florida’s gross domestic product by $9 billion over the next decade and eliminate more than 64,000 jobs. It also projects nearly $1 billion in lost state and local tax revenue, $2.7 billion in lost household earnings, and more than $3 billion in increased direct government health care spending.

Those are substantial figures. But what stands out most is the source of the loss.

More than 90% of the projected economic impact, roughly $7 billion, is linked to preventable deaths and reduced workforce participation. That is not merely a line item in a budget forecast. It represents the permanent loss of individuals — workers, parents, small-business owners, and community members — whose contributions would otherwise strengthen Florida’s economy.

Florida’s economy is driven by people — by entrepreneurs who open restaurants, contractors who build homes, retailers who serve neighborhoods, and hospitality workers who welcome visitors from around the world. Hispanic-owned businesses alone represent more than 600,000 enterprises across our state, contributing over $90 billion annually to Florida’s economy. Tourism supports many of these same businesses. The study estimates that even a 1% decline in visitors due to public health concerns could reduce statewide spending by $1.3 billion annually and put nearly 7,000 jobs at risk. For communities that depend on tourism and small-business activity, that kind of disruption matters.

It’s why policy decisions that influence workforce participation and community stability deserve careful evaluation.

Florida has long championed parental rights and individual decision-making. Families should be informed and empowered in decisions affecting their children. At the same time, in a state of more than 23 million people, policy shifts that affect workforce participation and school stability ripple far beyond any single household.

Parental rights and economic responsibility are not opposing concepts. They work together. Sound public policy considers both individual freedoms and the broader economic consequences that affect families, employers, and taxpayers alike.

Floridians recognize that balance. Recent statewide polling shows that eight in ten Floridians support maintaining Florida’s long-standing vaccine safeguards, including strong support among Hispanic voters. That reflects something significant: stability matters.

Florida has built one of the strongest economies in the nation, ranking as the 15th-largest economy in the world if it were its own country, by prioritizing growth, opportunity, and fiscal discipline. That level of economic strength is powered by people. A projected $9 billion reduction in GDP and tens of thousands of lost jobs are not marginal issues. It is a meaningful economic setback that deserves careful evaluation.

Healthy communities support healthy economies. Maintaining stability in our schools and workforce protects not only public health but also Florida’s long-term competitiveness and economic strength.

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Julio Fuentes is the President & CEO of the Florida State Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, representing more than 604,000 Hispanic-owned businesses across Florida, contributing over $90 billion to the state’s economy annually.