Early voting data so far suggests Dems might not get the flip they hope for in SD 14

Early voting in the Special Election for Senate District 14 began Saturday without much activity, though mail ballots are rolling in by the tens of thousands.

As of noon Monday, nearly 37,000 voters had cast a ballot in the race between Republican state Rep. Josie Tomkow and Democrat Brian Nathan, with most of those — nearly 34,000 — coming in by mail.

More Republicans have voted early (nearly 16,000) than Democrats (nearly 15,000). Nearly 6,700 voters affiliated with a minor party or no party have also voted.

Those numbers should be troubling for Democrats, who, historically speaking, tend to outperform Republicans in vote-by-mail and in-person early voting.

The first batch of vote-by-mail ballots went out in early February to overseas and military voters, with more sent out in mid-February to domestic voters.

Republicans have a notable voter registration advantage in the district, which encompasses parts of liberal-leaning Tampa, but also a large swath of the more conservative suburbs of north Hillsborough County.

GOP voters account for nearly 39% of the district’s electorate, with nearly 116,000 voters. Democrats account for just 31%, with nearly 93,000 voters. Nearly 27% of the electorate — a little over 79,000 voters — is not affiliated with a political party, representing a demographic on which Democrats will have to capitalize if they are to notch an upset.

Nathan and Tomkow are running to succeed former Sen. Jay Collins, who left office after Gov. Ron DeSantis tapped him to be Lieutenant Governor. Tomkow entered the race in November and quickly cleared the field, leaving her unopposed in a GOP Primary after announcing her campaign with support from prominent Republican politicians.

Backers include U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee; state Reps. Lawrence McClure, the House budget chief, Danny Alvarez, Traci Koster and Michael Owen; Sheriffs Chad Chronister of Hillsborough County, Grady Judd of Polk County and Chris Nocco of Pasco County; and Hillsborough County Commissioner Christine Miller.

That support also comes with money. At the time she launched her campaign, sources told Florida Politics she had $3 million on hand for the race, though they didn’t note in what accounts.

The most recent reports show Tomkow has about $148,000 on hand in her official campaign account, with another nearly $315,000 in an affiliated political committee, Friends of Josie Tomkow.

None of that accounts for outside spending on her behalf, but even still, it far surpasses the spending capabilities of her challenger. Nathan has raised less than $65,000 to his official campaign and had just over $12,000 remaining on hand as of Feb. 12, the most recent date for which data is available. It doesn’t appear as though Nathan has a PC.

Nathan currently serves as Vice President of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers local 915, a powerful force in Democratic politics, and he has pledged a grassroots campaign.

Democrats are hoping a spate of overperformances by Democrats in recent Special Elections in Florida and off-year elections elsewhere mean Nathan can pull off a win, even facing a funding deficit compared to Tomkow.

Even with state-specific examples, such as Tom Keen flipping House District 35 in early 2024 and a closer than expected race last year for Florida’s 6th Congressional District, Nathan has a challenging path to victory in the Hillsborough-based Senate district he seeks.

First, while Keen pulled off an upset, he lost in a rematch less than a year later, suggesting his victory may have only been a temporary blip.

Second, Hillsborough has been trending more red, not less, in recent months.

Still, tensions over the ongoing war in Iran and frustration over resulting gas price hikes could drive voting decisions. A recent poll by Schoen Cooperman Research, conducted on behalf of the pro-Israel group Israel on Campus Coalition, found only limited support for the Iran war, with 44% in support and 41% opposed.

While those toplines may not be terribly impactful in a Senate race in Florida, the sentiments broken down by party affiliation might, with only a third of the independent voters Nathan will need if he’s to edge out Tomkow supporting the conflict. Even Republicans aren’t entirely on board, with 82% supporting the war.

And gas prices could offer another window. The average gas price in Hillsborough County as of this writing was $3.73 per gallon. The average price of a gallon of gas statewide is up about 23 cents from one week ago and nearly $1 more than just one month ago, according to data from AAA. With affordability already a dominant issue among the voting public, those prices could have some impact on voter sentiment.

But while various current events markers and historical trends might offer some clues into the ultimate outcome between Nathan and Tomkow, actual results are still anyone’s guess, and the data still strongly favors Tomkow.

Early voting in Senate District 14 will continue through March 21, with Election Day on Tuesday, March 24.

Early voting locations open 10 a.m. until 6 p.m. include:

— Fred B. Karl County Center

— Jan Kaminis Platt Regional Library

— Jimmie B. Keel Regional Library

— Keystone Recreation Center

— Maureen B. Gauzza Public Library

— Northdale Recreation Center

— Northwest Regional Office

— North Tampa Branch Library

— Port Tampa Community Center

— Robert L. Gilder Elections Service Center

— Town ‘N Country Regional Public Library

Mail ballots must be turned in no later than 7 p.m. on Election Day. They can be dropped off at any early voting location during early voting hours or at a Supervisor of Elections office during office hours. Mail ballots cannot be turned in at precincts on Election Day, but can be surrendered to vote in person.

More information on early voting and vote by mail is available on the Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections website.