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Published

5 days ago

January 4, 2026

As the artificial intelligence trade continues to push the stock market to new highs, investors are increasingly asking if we’re living through another financial bubble that’s destined to burst.

The answer isn’t so simple, at least according to history.

The S&P 500 Index jumped 16% in 2025, with AI winners Nvidia Corp., Alphabet Inc., Broadcom Inc. and Microsoft Corp. contributing the most. But at the same time, concerns are mounting about the hundreds of billions of dollars Big Tech has pledged to spend on AI infrastructure. Capital expenditures from Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. are expected to rise 34% to roughly $440 billion combined over the next year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, OpenAI has committed to spending more than $1 trillion on AI infrastructure, an eye-popping number for a closely held company that isn’t profitable. But perhaps even more troubling is the circular nature of many of its arrangements, in which investments and spending go back and forth between OpenAI and a few publicly traded tech giants.

Throughout history, over-investment has been a common theme when there’s a technological advancement that will transform society, according to Invesco chief global market strategist Brian Levitt, who pointed to the development of railroads, electricity and the internet. This time may be no different.

“At some point the infrastructure build may exceed what the economy will need over a short period of time,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean that the rail tracks weren’t finished or the internet didn’t become a thing, right?”

Still, with equity valuations creeping up and the S&P 500 just posting its third straight year of double-digit percentage gains, it makes sense that investors are growing concerned about how much upside is left and how much market value could be lost if AI doesn’t live up to the hype. Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Broadcom and Meta Platforms account for almost 30% of the S&P 500, so an AI selloff would hit the index hard.

“A bubble likely crashes on a bear market,” said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Financial Group, who doesn’t believe AI stocks are in a bubble. “We just don’t see a bear market anytime soon.”

Here’s how today’s AI boom stacks up against previous market bubbles.

Pace, Length

One simple way of gaging whether the AI-fueled tech rally has gone too far or too fast is to compare it against past bull runs. Looking at 10 equity bubbles from around the world since 1900, they lasted just over two-and-a-half years on average with a trough-to-peak gain of 244%, according to research by Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett.

By comparison, the AI-driven rally is in its third year, with the S&P 500 rising 79% since the end of 2022 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index gaining 130%.

While it’s difficult to draw any conclusions from the data, Hartnett warns investors against fleeing the stock market even if they believe it’s in a bubble because the last stretch of the rally is typically the steepest, and missing out would be costly. One way to hedge is to buy cheap value plays like UK stocks and energy companies, he said.

Concentration

The S&P 500’s 10 biggest stocks now account for roughly 40% of the index, a level of concentration not seen since the 1960s. That has put some investors off, including Wall Street research veteran Ed Yardeni, who said in December that it no longer makes sense to recommend overweighting tech stocks.

Market historians argue that, while the concentration seems extreme relative to recent memory, there are precedents. Top stocks as a share of the US market were at similar levels in the 1930s and 1960s, according to London Business School professor Paul Marsh, who studied the past 125 years of global asset returns. In 1900, 63% of US market value was tied to railroad stocks, compared with 37% tied to technology at the end of 2024, Marsh said.

Fundamentals

Asset bubbles tend to be much harder to spot in real time than after the fact because fundamentals are usually at the center of the debate, and the metrics investors focus on can be fluid, according to TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins.

“It is easy for tech enthusiasts to claim that ‘it’s different now’ and that fundamental valuations will never be the same again,” he said.

But some fundamentals are always important. For example, compared with the dot-com bubble, today’s AI giants have lower debt-to-earnings ratios than, say, WorldCom Inc. And companies like Nvidia and Meta Platforms are already reporting strong profit growth from AI, which wasn’t necessarily the case in the speculative era 25 years ago.

The potential for credit risk in the AI trade is making some investors nervous. After Oracle Corp. sold $18 billion in bonds on Sept. 24, the stock plunged 5.6% the next day and it’s down 37% since then. Meta, Alphabet and Oracle will need to raise $86 billion combined in 2026 alone, according to an estimate by Societe Generale.

Valuations

The S&P 500’s valuation is the highest it’s ever been except for the early 2000s, at least according to its cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, a metric invented by economist Robert Shiller that divides a stock price by the average of its inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years.

Bullish investors argue that while market valuations are rising because of tech, the pace of increase is much slower than the dot-com era. At one point in 2000, Cisco Systems Inc. was priced at over 200 times its previous 12 months of earnings, while Nvidia is at less than 50 times today.

Stock prices decouple from earnings growth in an environment where there’s no debate on valuations, according to Richard Clode, a fund manager at Janus Henderson. “We’re just not seeing that currently as yet,” he said.

Investor Scrutiny

Discussions of a potential stock bubble percolated throughout the year but picked up significantly in November and December amid warnings from investor Michael Burry and the Bank of England. More than 12,000 stories in November mentioned the phrase “AI bubble,” roughly equal to the prior ten months combined, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Investors see an AI bubble as the biggest “tail risk” event, a December poll by Bank of America showed. More than half of the respondents said the Magnificent Seven tech stocks were Wall Street’s most crowded trade.

This contrasts with the dot-com bubble, when there was “complete excitement about the internet revolutionizing everything,” said Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays. And the questions about whether AI investments will pay off are increasing as the debt issuance rises.

“I wouldn’t brush it off, but I would generally think that scrutiny is healthy,” he said. “In fact, that scrutiny is what will prevent extreme moves like a crash.”

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Trump calls for one-year cap on credit card rates at 10%

Published

26 minutes ago

January 10, 2026

Jace Porter

President Donald Trump on Friday called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, effective Jan. 20, without specifying details.

“Please be informed that we will no longer let the American Public be ‘ripped off’ by Credit Card Companies that are charging Interest Rates of 20 to 30%, and even more, which festered unimpeded during the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration. AFFORDABILITY!” he wrote on social media.

It’s not clear whether credit card companies will respond to his call, or what actions he might take to force any change.

The post comes as the Trump administration intensifies efforts to demonstrate to voters that the president is addressing concerns about costs and prices that have emerged as a central issue in the November midterm elections.

During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump pledged to seek limits on the interest credit card companies can charge.

Hours before his message on Friday, Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, said on X: “Trump promised to cap credit card interest rates at 10% and stop Wall Street from getting away with murder. Instead, he deregulated big banks charging up to 30% interest on credit cards.”

In a letter last year to Sanders and Senator Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican, a group of banking trade groups painted a dire outcome for consumers if the government ever capped interest rates on credit cards at 10%, as the senators had proposed.

“Many consumers who currently rely on credit cards would be forced to turn elsewhere for short-term financing needs, including pawn shops, auto title lenders or worse — such as loan sharks, unregulated online lenders and the black market,” the group wrote.

The Bank Policy Institute said in a report last year that “while the proposed cap is a well-intentioned effort to reduce the high debt burden some households are facing, it would harm consumers’ access to card credit.” The group also said such a move could force card issuers to reduce cardholder benefits, including lucrative rewards tied to purchases.

Responding to Trump’s post on Friday, Hawley said on X: “Fantastic idea. Can’t wait to vote for this.”

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Asian households still save as much as half their wealth in cash. Fintech platforms like Syfe want to change that

Published

2 hours ago

January 9, 2026

Jace Porter

Growing up in India, Dhruv Arora’s mother gave him one key piece of financial advice: Put his money in the bank.

But Arora, now the founder of Singapore-based fintech platform Syfe, quickly realized that following his mother’s advice meant his money “did absolutely nothing.”

“We have quite a heavy culture of saving,” Arora says, citing Asia’s often unstable economic and policy history. But inflation and low interest rates end up eroding the value of household savings. “Over time, the $100 you put in the bank doesn’t become $101, but effectively $98” due to the effects of inflation.

Asian households sometimes keep as much as 50% of their net worth in cash, rather than in investments or assets. In contrast, in developed markets like the U.S. and Europe, that figure is closer to 15%.

But that conservative attitude in Asia is starting to change. Asians are getting wealthier, pushing them to explore different investment options. Strong stock market performance is also driving a new wave of retail investors across the Asia-Pacific.

“Asian households are slowly dipping their toes into stock markets,” HSBC economists wrote in a Jan. 9 report, though noted that “overall equity investment remains quite low.” The bank predicts that a steady shift from low-yield cash to higher-yield investments will mean “more money will continue to rotate into equity markets over the next few years,” reducing a reliance on foreign investors.

A slew of fintech apps have emerged in recent years to tap a growing interest in investing and wealth management among Asian users. These alternative finance platforms, such as Syfe, Stashaway and Endowus, often offer a range of investment options, ranging from cash management to managed portfolios and options trading. The challenge, Arora says, is how to “bridge the gap between holding money and growing wealth,” and “give more people the confidence to put their savings to work.”

Arora began his career as an investment banker for UBS in Hong Kong in 2008, soon after the Global Financial Crisis. Despite Asia’s relatively quick recovery, Arora noticed that the region’s professionals were building wealth yet didn’t know how to manage it. “These were smart people like doctors, lawyers and consultants, who were doing well professionally, but just did not know what to do with their money,” he says.

He launched Syfe in 2019, just a few months before another global crisis: The COVID-19 pandemic. Yet the pandemic ended up being an opportunity for fintech platforms like Syfe. “It acted as a catalyst for a shift in investor behavior,” Arora explained, as people suddenly had the time to engage with financial markets.

In the U.S., for example, people stuck at home began to get involved in stock trading through platforms like Robinhood. Fueled by social media, these retail investors began to heavily trade in so-called meme stocks like Gamestop and AMC.

Syfe has since expanded from its home market of Singapore to new Asia-Pacific economies like Australia and Hong Kong. The platform continues to grow both its userbase and company revenue, and the company claimed it reached profitability in Q4 2025. It’s now a “self-sustaining organization,” Arora says.

Syfe closed an $80 million Series C funding round last year, and is backed by major investors like NYC-based Valar Ventures and UK-based investment firm Unbound.

The platform’s users generated $2 billion worth of returns while saving $80 million in fees last year, according to the company.

Currently, Arora wants to deepen Syfe’s presence in its existing markets. Last year, the platform began to roll out bespoke offerings for its users, like private credit for accredited investors looking to diversify their portfolios on Syfe. Syfe will launch options trading in 2026.

Arora notes that many of Syfe’s users, over time, have grown more comfortable with taking larger investment risks, moving from putting their money in Syfe-managed portfolios, to more actively trading on brokerages and income portfolios.

Yet he eventually wants to bring Syfe to new markets in North Asia and the Middle East, which boast sizable populations of what Arora terms the “mass affluent,” a population with significant investable assets and higher-than-average incomes, though still not in the high-net-worth category.

“This demographic has historically been ‘stuck in the middle’: too large for basic retail banking, yet often underserved by traditional private banks,” he explains.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Lawmakers and victims criticize new limits on Grok’s AI image as ‘insulting’ and ‘not effective’

Published

2 hours ago

January 9, 2026

Jace Porter

Elon Musk’s xAI has restricted its AI chatbot Grok’s image generation capabilities to paying subscribers only, following widespread condemnation over its use to create non-consensual sexualized images of real women and children.

“Image generation and editing are currently limited to paying subscribers,” Grok announced via X on Friday. The restriction means the vast majority of users can no longer access the feature. Paying, verified subscribers with credit card details on file can still do so, but theoretically they can be identified more easily if the function is misused.

However, experts, regulators, and victims say that the new restrictions aren’t a solution to the now widespread problem.

“The argument that providing user details and payment methods will help identify perpetrators also isn’t convincing, given how easy it is to provide false info and use temporary payment methods,” Henry Ajder, a UK-based deepfakes expert, told Fortune. “The logic here is also reactive: it is supposed to help identify offenders after content has been generated, but it doesn’t represent any alignment or meaningful limitations to the model itself.”

The UK government has called the move “insulting” to victims, in remarks reported by the BBC. The UK’s prime minister’s spokesperson told reporters on Friday that the change “simply turns an AI feature that allows the creation of unlawful images into a premium service.

“It is time for X to grip this issue; if another media company had billboards in town centers showing unlawful images, it would act immediately to take them down or face public backlash,” they said.

A representative for X said they were “looking into” the new restrictions. xAI responded with the automated message: “Legacy Media Lies.”

Over the past week real women have been targeted at scale with users manipulating photos to remove clothing, place subjects in bikinis, or position them in sexually explicit scenarios without their consent. Some victims reported feeling violated and disturbed by the trend, with many saying their reports to X went unanswered and images remained live on the platform.

Researchers said the scale at which Grok was producing and sharing images was unprecedented as, unlike other AI bots, Grok essentially has a built-in distribution system in the X platform.

One researcher, whose analysis was published by Bloomberg, estimated that X has become the most prolific site for deepfakes over the last week. Genevieve Oh, a social media and deepfake researcher who conducted a 24-hour analysis of images the @Grok account posted to X, found that the chatbot was producing roughly 6,700 sexually suggestive or nudifying images per hour. By comparison, the five other leading websites for sexualized deepfakes averaged 79 new AI undressing images hourly during the same period. Oh’s research also found that sexualized content dominated Grok’s output, accounting for 85% of all images the chatbot generated.

Ashley St. Clair, a conservative commentator and mother of one of Musk’s children, was among those affected by the images. St. Clair told Fortune that users were turning images on her X profile into explicit AI-generated photos of her, including some she said depicted her as a minor. After speaking out against the images and raising concerns about deepfakes on minors, St Clair also said X took away her verified, paying subscribers status without notifying her or refunding her for the $8 per month fee.

“Restricting it to the paid-only user shows that they’re going to double down on this, placing an undue burden on the victims to report to law enforcement and law enforcement to use their resources to track these people down,” Ashley St Clair said of the recent restrictions. “It’s also a money grab.”

St Clair told Fortune that many of the accounts targeting her were already verified users: “It’s not effective at all,” she said. “This is just in anticipation of more law enforcement inquiries regarding Grok image generation.”

Regulatory pressure

The move to limit Grok’s capabilities comes amid mounting pressure from regulators worldwide. In the U.K., Prime Minister Keir Starmer has indicated he is open to banning the platform entirely, describing the content as “disgraceful” and “disgusting.” Regulators in India, Malaysia, and France have also launched investigations or probes.

The European Commission on Thursday ordered X to preserve all internal documents and data related to Grok, stepping up its investigation into the platform’s content moderation practices after describing the spread of nonconsensual sexually explicit deepfakes as “illegal,” “appalling,” and “disgusting.”

Experts say the new restrictions may not satisfy regulators’ concerns: “This approach is a blunt instrument that doesn’t address the root of the problem with Grok’s alignment and likely won’t cut it with regulators,” Ajder said. “Limiting functionality to paying users will not stop the generation of this content; a month’s subscription is not a robust solution.”

In the U.S., the situation is also likely to test existing laws, like Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, which shields online providers from liability for content created by users. U.S. Senators Ron Wyden, Edward J. Markey, and Ben Ray Luján have issued a statement urging Apple and Google to “immediately remove the X and Grok apps from their app stores” following Grok’s alleged use for generating “nonconsensual sexualized images of women and children at scale.” The lawmakers called the images “disturbing and likely illegal,” and said the apps should remain unavailable until Musk addresses the concerns.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) has also called for Grok to be blocked from generating “sexually explicit images of children and women, including prominent Muslim women.”

Riana Pfefferkorn of Stanford’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence previously told Fortune that liability surrounding AI-generated images is murky. “We have this situation where for the first time, it is the platform itself that is at scale generating non-consensual pornography of adults and minors alike,” she said. “From a liability perspective as well as a PR perspective, the CSAM laws pose the biggest potential liability risk here.”

Musk has previously stated that “anyone using Grok to make illegal content will suffer the same consequences as if they upload illegal content.” However, it remains unclear how accounts will be held accountable.

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