On Saturday, Trump announced tariffs targeting NATO countries that deployed troops to the semi-autonomous Danish territory, until a “Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.”

That drew cheers from Kirill Dmitriev, Russian Vladimir Putin’s envoy for investment and economic cooperation. Meanwhile, the European Union is weighing options to retaliate.

“Collapse of the transatlantic union,” he posted on X. “Finally—something actually worth discussing in Davos.”

NATO has been a key supporter of Ukraine as it fights off Russia’s invasion, which began nearly four years ago. And while Trump has previously sparked trade tension with Europe, NATO allies have helped maintain U.S. support for Kyiv, though he has often withheld it.

The current tariff battle, however, threatens irreparable harm to the alliance, representing its worst schism in its nearly 80-year history.

If Trump’s trade war jeopardizes NATO’s assistance for Ukraine, it could relieve pressure on Russia’s economy, just as more signs emerge that Putin’s war machine is stifling growth. GDP for 2025 is expected to show a 1% gain or less, and 2026 is headed for a similar crawl. That’s after spurts of more than 4% in 2023 and 2024.

“The Russian people are increasingly feeling the effects of the Kremlin’s continued prioritization of the Russian defense industrial base,” the Institute for the Study of War said in a recent analysis.

Weapons makers and other suppliers are booming as the Kremlin funnels investments and loans to those industries. But the rest of the economy is suffering.

For example, ISW pointed out that rising wages are fueling inflation as the war causes labor shortages while defense and civilian firms compete for workers. Soaring inflation forced Russia’s central bank to lift interest rates to shy-high levels that have only recently started to come down.

And in the second half of last year, several major Russian civilian manufacturers switched to four-day workweeks and announced layoffs due to falling demand.

As borrowing costs jump, Russian civilians are struggling to buy homes. On top of high prices, the value-added tax rate has gone up to help pay for the Ukraine war while Western sanctions and low crude oil prices have diminished Moscow’s revenue from energy exports.

“ISW continues to assess that increased Western economic pressure on Russia, along with helping Ukraine maintain and even increase pressure on the battlefield, remains critical to changing Putin’s calculus and forcing Putin to face more serious tradeoffs between continuing to pursue his maximalist war aims and sacrificing the quality of life of the Russian people,” the analysis said.

The assessment follows evidence of increasing strain in throughout the private sector, including the financial system.

Russian data show unpaid wages nearly tripled in October from a year ago to more than $27 million, with furloughs and shorter workweeks becoming more common. As a result, more consumers are having trouble servicing their loans. 

“A banking crisis is possible,” a Russian official told the Washington Post recently on condition of anonymity. “A nonpayments crisis is possible. I don’t want to think about a continuation of the war or an escalation.”

Given the headwinds, the warning wasn’t the first of its kind. In June, Russian banks raised red flags on a potential debt crisis as high interest rates weigh on borrowers’ ability to service loans.

Also that month, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs warned many companies were in “a pre-default situation.”

And in September, Sberbank CEO German Gref, one of Russia’s top banking chiefs, said the economy was in “technical stagnation,” following his warnings in July and August that growth was close to zero.

The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, a state-backed Russian think tank, said last month the country could face a banking crisis by next October if loan troubles worsen and depositors pull out their funds, according to the Post.

“The situation in the Russian economy has deteriorated markedly,” wrote Dmitry Belousov, head of the think tank, in a note seen by the Financial Times. “The economy has entered the brink of stagflation for the first time since early 2023.”

Trump’s interview Thursday with Rieder went well, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the private deliberations.

Key senators such as Republican Banking Committee member Thom Tillis have warned that Trump’s Fed picks will get more scrutiny after the Justice Department subpoenaed the Fed last week over statements by Chair Jerome Powell related to a renovation project at the bank’s headquarters. But Powell, whose term expires in May, contends the criminal probe is a pretext to punish him for not cutting rates quickly enough.

Read More: Fed Served With DOJ Subpoenas; Powell Vows to Stand Firm 

Trump, asked Friday about the selection process, said he had a candidate in mind, while declining to name him. “I think I have it — in my mind, done,” he said.

The search is now a four-man race, some of the people said, among Rieder, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller and former governor Kevin Warsh, the people said.

Read More: The Turbulent Forces Reshaping The Fed This Year

Hassett was an early frontrunner and continued to be until Trump said this week he may not want to lose Hassett from his current role. It’s not clear if it was a signal of a shifting internal deliberation, or an offhand remark.

“Nobody knows who President Trump will choose for the Fed, except President Trump himself. As the president recently said, he will announce his final decision soon,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a written statement Saturday.

The decision to subpoena the Fed a week ago sparked a wave of backlash, including a pledge by Tillis — who sits on the committee that would first consider a nominee — to oppose any Fed nomination until the matter is resolved. 

Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, is viewed as potentially easier to confirm, some of the people said. A spokesperson for BlackRock declined to comment on Rieder’s status.

Hiring data released earlier this month suggested the labor market remained fragile at the end of the year, and the outlook for hiring is guarded. Economists see another year of limited job opportunities and cooling pay gains, likely exacerbating voters’ affordability concerns going into this year’s midterm elections.

Fed officials cut rates three consecutive times at the end of 2025, but have signaled they’re in no rush to lower them again until they see more data on inflation and the labor market. Policymakers are expected to hold rates steady at their next meeting on Jan. 27-28.

Rieder has called the Fed’s independence “critical,” but has also echoed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in saying the central bank could be more “innovative” in how it uses its balance sheet.