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Donald Trump’s strategy to weaken the dollar could already be a success—in making it too expensive for Americans to travel to Europe

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Donald Trump’s tariff-fueled strategy to weaken the dollar and increase U.S. competitiveness is likely to have a range of consequences. An unpopular one might be his voters paying more for their Summer holiday to Europe.  

Airlines are sounding the alarm on a troubling trend of falling demand from their crucial U.S. market, amid growing signs that Trump’s clampdown on foreign trade will filter through to everyday Americans.

The dollar has declined against the euro and the British pound since Trump took office in January, reversing a consistent trend of a strengthening dollar during the Joe Biden administration. 

That period of dollar supremacy encouraged a transatlantic spending spree by U.S. travelers, epitomized by a wave of American Taylor Swift fans swarming to Europe to watch the singer perform her Eras Tour last Summer. 

Analysis at the time from CNN showed that it was considerably cheaper to see Swift in Sweden than it was buying tickets on the secondary market in several U.S. cities, even when factoring in travel and accommodation costs. Economists predicted these travel trends would see Europe enjoy a larger economic impact from Swift’s tour than her native America.

Europe’s travel companies have noticed these trends, which aren’t confined to Swifites. Speaking to the Financial Times in March, Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith said the airline was investing in its first-class suite to appeal to wealthy Americans traveling to Paris.

“It’s unbelievable what Americans are paying to come over here, if you look at what it costs to stay down the street at the Bristol Hotel,” Smith said.

One person unhappy with news of foreign companies benefitting from Americans’ deep pockets would be President Trump. As part of a sweeping overhaul of the U.S. economy, currently focused on exports, Trump hopes to make U.S. manufacturing more competitive and views the devaluation of the dollar as an avenue to achieving this.

Unfortunately, the combative policies might also be hurting Americans’ freedom of movement.

Airlines bore the brunt of investor bearishness in March when Trump warned that his aggressive economic policies could trigger a recession. 

Shares in British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG) have plunged nearly 30% since early February, while American Airlines has declined nearly 40% since the start of the year amid growing fears of declining U.S. consumer spending.

Virgin Atlantic, which is 49% owned by Delta, made £1 billion ($1.3 billion) in revenue from its U.S. operations last year, helping propel the airline to its highest turnover and operating profits in its 40-year history.

That record-busting, though, could be short-lived after Virgin Atlantic CFO Oli Byers dropped an ominous warning following the results release.

“In the last few weeks, we have started to see some signals that U.S. demand has been slowing,” Byers said in comments accompanying the release of results.

On Sunday, Virgin Atlantic majority owner Sir Richard Branson lambasted the current U.S. administration for its rhetoric towards Europe and Ukraine. Branson said historians would remember this time as when the West’s trust in the U.S. ended. 

Lower demand from U.S. customers isn’t yet a universal experience for Europe’s airlines. 

Lufthansa CFO Till Streichert told local media: “Our important transatlantic business continues to look very good,” as Virgin reported falling U.S. demand. Germany rejigged its border policy for Americans, indicating that a visa or entry waiver didn’t guarantee entry to the country. That does not appear to have had an impact on travel either.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Stop chasing AI benchmarks—create your own

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Every few months, a new large language model (LLM) is anointed AI champion, with record-breaking benchmark scores. But these celebrated metrics of LLM performance—such as testing graduate-level reasoning and abstract math—rarely reflect real business needs or represent truly novel AI frontiers. For companies in the market for enterprise AI models, basing the decision of which models to use on these leaderboards alone can lead to costly mistakes—from wasted budgets to misaligned capabilities and potentially harmful, domain-specific errors that benchmark scores rarely capture.

Public benchmarks can be helpful to individual users by providing directional indicators of AI capabilities. And admittedly, some code-completion and software-engineering benchmarks, like SWE-Bench or Codeforces, are valuable for companies within a narrow range of coding-related, LLM-based business applications. But the most common benchmarks and public leaderboards often distract both businesses and model developers, pushing innovation toward marginal improvements in areas unhelpful for businesses or unrelated to areas of breakthrough AI innovation. 

The challenge for executives, therefore, lies in designing business-specific evaluation frameworks that test potential models in the environments where they’ll actually be deployed. To do that, companies will need to adopt tailored evaluation strategies to run at scale using relevant and realistic data.

The mismatch between benchmarks and business needs

The flashy benchmarks that model developers tout in their releases are often detached from the realities of enterprise applications. Consider some of the most popular ones: graduate-level reasoning (GPQA Diamond) and high school-level math tests, like MATH-500 and AIME2024. Each of these was cited in the releases for GPT o1Sonnet 3.7, or DeepSeek’s R1. But none of these indicators is helpful in assessing common enterprise applications like knowledge management tools, design assistants, or customer-facing chatbots.

Instead of assuming that the “best” model on a given leaderboard is the obvious choice, businesses should use metrics tailored to their specific needs to work backward and identify the right model. Start by testing models on your actual context and data—real customer queries, domain-specific documents, or whatever inputs your system will encounter in production. When real data is scarce or sensitive, companies can craft synthetic test cases that capture the same challenges. 

Without real-world tests, companies can end up ill-fitting models that may, for instance, require too much memory for edge devices, have latency that’s too high for real-time interactions, or have insufficient support for the on-premises deployment sometimes mandated by data governance standards.

Salesforce has tried to bridge this gap between common benchmarks and their actual business requirements by developing its own internal benchmark for its CRM-related needs. The company created its own evaluation criteria specifically for tasks like prospecting, nurturing leads, and generating service case summaries—the actual work that marketing and sales teams need AI to perform.

Reaching beyond stylized metrics

Popular benchmarks are not only insufficient for informed business decision-making but can also be misleading. Often LLM media coverage, including all three major recent release announcements, uses benchmarks to compare models based on their average performance. Specific benchmarks are distilled into a single dot, number, or bar

The trouble is that generative AI models are stochastic, highly input-sensitive systems, which means that slight variations of a prompt can make them behave unpredictably.  A recent research paper from Anthropic rightly argues that, as a result, single dots on a performance comparison chart are insufficient because of the large error ranges of the evaluation metrics. A recent study by Microsoft found that using a statistically more accurate clustered-based evaluation in the same benchmarks can significantly change the rank ordering of—and public narratives about—models on a leaderboards.

That’s why business leaders need to ensure reliable measurements of model performance across a reasonable range of variations, done at scale, even if it requires hundreds of test runs. This thoroughness becomes even more critical when multiple systems are combined through AI and data supply chains, potentially increasing variability. For industries like aviation or healthcare, the margin of error is small and far beyond what current AI benchmarks typically guarantee, such that solely relying on leaderboard metrics can obscure substantial operational risk in real-world deployments. 

Businesses must also test models in adversarial scenarios to ensure the security and robustness of a model—such as a chatbot’s resistance to manipulation by bad actors attempting to bypass guardrails—that cannot be measured by conventional benchmarks. LLMs are notably vulnerable to being fooled by sophisticated prompting techniques. Depending on the use case, implementing strong safeguards against these vulnerabilities could determine your technology choice and deployment strategy. The resilience of a model in the face of a potential bad actor could be a more important metric than the model’s math or reasoning capabilities. In our view, making AI “foolproof” is an exciting and impactful next barrier to break for AI researchers, one that may require novel model development and testing techniques.

Putting evaluation into practice: Four keys to a scalable approach

Start with existing evaluation frameworks. Companies should start by leveraging the strengths of existing automated tools (along with human judgment and practical but repeatable measurement goals). Specialized AI evaluation toolkits, such as DeepEvalLangSmithTruLensMastra, or ARTKIT, can expedite and simplify testing, allowing for consistent comparison across models and over time. 

Bring human experts to the testing ground.  Effective AI evaluation requires that automated testing be supplemented with human judgment wherever possible. Automated evaluation could include a comparison of LLM answers to ground truth answers, or the use of proxy metrics, such as automated ROUGE or BLEU scores, to gauge the quality of text summarization. 

For nuanced assessments, however, ones where machines still struggle, human evaluation remains vital. This could include domain experts or end-users conducting a “blind” review of a sample of model outputs. Such actions can also flag potential biases in responses, such as LLMs giving responses about job candidates that are biased by gender or race. This human layer of review is labor-intensive, but can provide additional critical insight, like whether a response is actually useful and well-presented.

The value of this hybrid approach can be seen in a recent case study where a company evaluated an HR-support chatbot using both human and automated tests. The company’s iterative internal evaluation process with human involvement showed a significant source of LLM response errors was due to flawed updates to enterprise data. The discovery highlights how human evaluation can uncover systemic issues beyond the model itself.

Focus on tradeoffs, not isolated dimensions of assessmentWhen evaluating models, companies must look beyond accuracy to consider the full spectrum of business requirements: speed, cost efficiency, operational feasibility, flexibility, maintainability, and regulatory compliance. A model that performs marginally better on accuracy metrics might be prohibitively expensive or too slow for real-time applications. A great example of this is how Open AI’s GPT o1(a leader in many benchmarks at release time) performed when applied to the ARC-AGI prize. To the surprise of many, the o1 model performed poorly, largely due to ARC-AGI’s “efficiency limit” on the computing power used to solve the benchmark tasks. The o1 model would often take too long, using more compute time to try to come up with a more accurate answer. Most popular benchmarks don’t have a time limit even though time would be a critically important factor for many business use cases. 

Tradeoffs become even more important in the growing world of (multi)-agentic applications, where simpler tasks can be handled by cheaper, quicker models (overseen by an orchestration agent), while the most complex steps (such as solving the broken-out series of problems from a customer) could need a more powerful version with reasoning to be successful. 

Microsoft Research’s HuggingGPT, for example, orchestrates specialized models for different tasks under a central language model. Being prepared to change models for different tasks requires building flexible tooling that isn’t hard-coded to a single model or provider. This built-in flexibility allows companies to easily pivot and change models based on evaluation results. While this may sound like a lot of extra development work, there are a number of available tools, like LangChainLlamaIndex, and Pydantic AI, that can simplify the process.

Turn model testing into a culture of continuous evaluation and monitoring. As technology evolves, ongoing assessment ensures AI solutions remain optimal while maintaining alignment with business objectives. Much like how software engineering teams implement continuous integration and regression testing to catch bugs and prevent performance degradation in traditional code, AI systems require regular evaluation against business-specific benchmarks. Similar to the practice of pharmacovigilance among users of new medicines, feedback from LLM users and affected stakeholders also needs to be continuously gathered and analyzed to ensure AI “behaves as expected” and doesn’t drift from its intended performance targets

This kind of bespoke evaluation framework fosters a culture of experimentation and data-driven decision-making. It also enforces the new and critical mantra: AI may be used for execution, but humans are in control and must govern AI.

Conclusion

For business leaders, the path to AI success lies not in chasing the latest benchmark champions but in developing evaluation frameworks for your specific business objectives. Think of this approach as “a leaderboard for every user,” as one Stanford paper suggests. The true value of AI deployment comes from three key actions: defining metrics that directly measure success in your business context; implementing statistically robust testing in realistic situations using your actual data and in your actual context; and fostering a culture of continuous monitoring, evaluation and experimentation that draws on both automated tools and human expertise to assess tradeoffs across models.

By following this approach, executives will be able to identify solutions optimized for their specific needs without paying premium prices for “top-notch models.” Doing this can hopefully help steer the model development industry away from chasing marginal improvements on the same metrics—falling victim to Goodhart’s law with capabilities of limited use for business—and instead free them up to explore new avenues of innovation and the next AI breakthrough. 

Read other Fortune columns by François Candelon

Francois Candelon is a partner at private equity firm Seven2 and the former global director of the BCG Henderson Institute.

Theodoros Evgeniou is a professor at INSEAD and a cofounder of the trust and safety company Tremau.

Max Struever is a principal engineer at BCG-X and an ambassador at the BCG Henderson Institute.

David Zuluaga Martínez is a partner at 
Boston Consulting Group and an ambassador at the BCG Henderson Institute.

Some of the companies mentioned in this column are past or present clients of the authors’ employers.


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Foreign college students are now losing their visas and being ordered to leave over misdemeanor crimes or traffic infractions

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A crackdown on foreign students is alarming colleges, who say the Trump administration is using new tactics and vague justifications to push some students out of the country.

College officials worry the new approach will keep foreigners from wanting to study in the U.S.

Students stripped of their entry visas are receiving orders from the Department of Homeland Security to leave the country immediately — a break from past practice that often permitted them to stay and complete their studies.

Some students have been targeted over pro-Palestinian activism or criminal infractions — or even traffic violations. Others have been left wondering how they ran afoul of the government.

At Minnesota State University in Mankato, President Edward Inch told the campus Wednesday that visas had been revoked for five international students for unclear reasons.

He said school officials learned about the revocations when they ran a status check in a database of international students after the detention of a Turkish student at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis. The State Department said the detention was related to a drunken driving conviction.

“These are troubling times, and this situation is unlike any we have navigated before,” Inch wrote in a letter to campus.

President Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to deport foreign students involved in pro-Palestinian protests, and federal agents started by detaining Columbia graduate student Mahmoud Khalil, a green-card-holder and Palestinian activist who was prominent in protests at Columbia last year. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week students are being targeted for involvement in protests along with others tied to “potential criminal activity.”

In the past two weeks, the government apparently has widened its crackdown. Officials from colleges around the country have discovered international students have had their entry visas revoked and, in many cases, their legal residency status terminated by authorities without notice — including students at Arizona State, Cornell, North Carolina State, the University of Oregon, the University of Texas and the University of Colorado.

Some of the students are working to leave the country on their own, but students at Tufts and the University of Alabama have been detained by immigration authorities — in the Tufts case, even before the university knew the student’s legal status had changed.

Feds bypass colleges to move against students

In this new wave of enforcement, school officials say the federal government is quietly deleting foreigners’ student records instead of going through colleges, as was done in the past.

Students are being ordered to leave the country with a suddenness that universities have rarely seen, said Miriam Feldblum, president and CEO of the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration.

In the past, when international students have had entry visas revoked, they generally have been allowed to keep legal residency status. They could stay in the country to study, but would need to renew their visa if they left the U.S. and wanted to return. Now, increasing numbers of students are having their legal status terminated, exposing them to the risk of being arrested.

“None of this is regular practice,” Feldblum said.

At North Carolina State University, two students from Saudi Arabia left the U.S. after learning their legal status as students was terminated, the university said. N.C. State said it will work with the students to complete their semester from outside the country.

Philip Vasto, who lived with one of the students, said his roommate, in graduate school for engineering management, was apolitical and did not attend protests against the war in Gaza. When the government told his roommate his student status had been terminated, it did not give a reason, Vasto said.

Since returning to Saudi Arabia, Vasto said his former roommate’s top concern is getting into another university.

“He’s made his peace with it,” he said. “He doesn’t want to allow it to steal his peace any further.”

Database checks turn up students in jeopardy

At the University of Texas at Austin, staff checking a federal database discovered two people on student visas had their permission to be in the U.S. terminated, a person familiar with the situation said. The person declined to be identified for fear of retaliation.

One of the people, from India, had their legal status terminated April 3. The federal system indicated the person had been identified in a criminal records check “and/or has had their visa revoked.” The other person, from Lebanon, had their legal status terminated March 28 due to a criminal records check, according to the federal database.

Both people were graduates remaining in the U.S. on student visas, using an option allowing people to gain professional experience after completing coursework. Both were employed full time and apparently had not violated requirements for pursuing work experience, the person familiar with the situation said.

Some students have had visas revoked by the State Department under an obscure law barring noncitizens whose presence could have “serious adverse foreign policy consequences.” Trump invoked the law in a January order demanding action against campus antisemitism.

But some students targeted in recent weeks have had no clear link to political activism. Some have been ordered to leave over misdemeanor crimes or traffic infractions, Feldblum said. In some cases, students were targeted for infractions that had been previously reported to the government.

Some of the alleged infractions would not have drawn scrutiny in the past and will likely be a test of students’ First Amendment rights as cases work their way through court, said Michelle Mittelstadt, director of public affairs at the Migration Policy Institute.

“In some ways, what the administration is doing is really retroactive,” she said. “Rather than saying, ‘This is going to be the standard that we’re applying going forward,’ they’re going back and vetting students based on past expressions or past behavior.”

The Association of Public and Land-grant Universities is requesting a meeting with the State Department over the issue. It’s unclear whether more visas are being revoked than usual, but officials fear a chilling effect on international exchange.

Many of the association’s members have recently seen at least one student have their visas revoked, said Bernie Burrola, a vice president at the group. With little information from the government, colleges have been interviewing students or searching social media for a connection to political activism.

“The universities can’t seem to find anything that seems to be related to Gaza or social media posts or protests,” Burrola said. “Some of these are sponsored students by foreign governments, where they specifically are very hesitant to get involved in protests.”

There’s no clear thread indicating which students are being targeted, but some have been from the Middle East and China, he said.

America’s universities have long been seen as a top destination for the world’s brightest minds — and they’ve brought important tuition revenue and research breakthroughs to U.S. colleges. But international students also have other options, said Fanta Aw, CEO of NAFSA, an association of international educators.

“We should not take for granted that that’s just the way things are and will always be,” she said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Global recession on the cards

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  • In today’s CEO Daily: Geoff Colvin on the effect of Trump’s tariffs on corporate profits.
  • The big story: Forecasters eye a global recession.
  • The markets: Worst since Covid in 2020.
  • Analyst notes from JPMorgan, Wedbush, UBS, and Oxford Economics on the risk of economic contraction under the new global trade rules.
  • Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.

Good morning. Today’s worldwide economic chaos, sparked by President Trump’s new tariffs, may be shocking, but it isn’t new. A similar story played out eight years ago, in Trump’s first term as president. A look at what he did, and the repercussions that followed, is instructive for business leaders, investors, and consumers. And it is by no means encouraging.

Unlike in his current term, Trump back then didn’t immediately launch a trade war. He devoted his first year as president to easing business regulation and getting a historic tax cut through Congress. CEOs were jubilant. But then, in January of his second year, he showed why he had declared himself Tariff Man. He imposed tariffs on China and then quickly broadened tariffs to more countries. The party was over. Specifically:

Tariffs helped a few U.S. companies but also injured thousands of others. For example, Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel—great for the handful of U.S. steelmakers but a painful cost increase for the thousands of U.S. manufacturers that use steel. Expand the steel example across the economy and the result was a hard punch to profits. During Trump’s first year in office (2017), before he imposed tariffs, U.S. corporate profits rose 8%. In the following five quarters, with tariffs, profits lurched into reverse, shrinking 1.5%, annualized.

Stock prices got whacked. From Trump’s 2016 election until tariffs began in January 2018, the S&P 500 rose at a 27.3% annualized pace. But with tariffs added, the S&P rose at just 3.8% annualized (January 2018 to November 2019).

CEOs reversed their view of Trump. Immediately after Trump won in 2016, bosses raised their confidence as measured by the Conference Board, and confidence varied slightly up and down around that new level during Trump’s first year in office. But soon after he declared his trade wars, CEO confidence plunged to levels not seen since the worst days of the financial crisis in 2008-09.

Note that Trump is executing his main economic policies in the reverse order he followed in his first term. Back then he got the tax bill done first, then turned to tariffs. Now, having declared a historic trade war, he will spend much of 2025 on that tax bill, many elements of which are scheduled to sunset on December 31. He will try to keep that bill’s tax cuts and even cut taxes further. If he succeeds, he might regain his currently ebbing support from business leaders, investors, and consumers. But that’s a big “if” and a big “might.” — Geoff Colvin

More news below.

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

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