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Dogs Bark NFL Week 9: what about Week 10?

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WK 8 AGAINST THE SPREAD NUMBERS

NFL WEEK 10 REPORT: DOGS BARK BACK AS FAVORITES FALL FLAT

After several weeks of dominance from the favorites, the underdogs finally had their day in Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season. Bettors who backed the Dogs were rewarded across the board — both “Against the Spread” and on the Moneyline — as the league’s balance of power continues to shift midseason.

Favorites managed to cover just five games last week, while nine underdogs came through on the number. Even more surprising, six of those Dogs didn’t just cover — they won outright. It marked one of the best collective showings for underdogs this season and provided a nice rebound after two straight weeks of lopsided results.

Scoring also showed balance with seven “Overs” and seven “Unders,” continuing a season-long trend toward relatively even totals. The overall numbers still slightly favor the “Over,” but it’s close enough that matchups and weather are taking on extra importance as we move into November football.

Another key storyline was the return of close games. Two weeks ago, nearly every matchup turned into a blowout, with 11 games decided by double digits. This past week, that number dropped significantly to just three double-digit margins, and nine games were decided by a touchdown or less. Bettors who favor teasers and Moneyline parlays certainly noticed the difference.

Perhaps the biggest shock of the weekend was the Green Bay Packers’ collapse as a two-touchdown favorite. Losing outright in that spot qualifies as the season’s biggest upset — and a reminder that no favorite is truly safe in today’s NFL.

As we roll into Week 10, trends are tightening and the spreads are sharper, but value still exists for those who do their homework. Remember, always look deeper than just the line — find the matchup edges and stay disciplined.

For full stat breakdowns and betting data every week, get all of Gary Greene’s Football Betting Magazine Stats — free at GARYWINS.COM.

NFL WEEK 10: “AGAINST THE SPREAD” / OVER-UNDERS / DOGS STRAIGHT UP / WIN MARGINS REPORT

BELOW IS PAST “WEEK 9” FULL RESULTS AND NEW FULL UPDATED SEASON RESULTS IN THE FAR RIGHT COLUMN

Note: A.T.S. = “AGAINST THE SPREAD”

(A.T.S. LAST WEEK ~ NFL WEEK 9): 2025 SEASON OVERALL

FAVORITES A.T.S. = 5 (75)

DOGS A.T.S. = 9 (60)

FAVORITES STRAIGHT UP ON MONEYLINE = 8 (94)

DOGS STRAIGHT UP = 6 (39)

(TOTALS):
“OVERS” = 7 (71)

“UNDERS” = 7 (64)

(WIN MARGINS):
0 (TIES) = 0 (1)
1-3 POINTS = 5 (33)
4-7 POINTS = 4 (29)
8–10 POINTS = 2 (13)
11+ POINTS = 11 (*by 22, 24, 24) (59)

NOTE: Teams are winning by double digits and now more than teams winning by combined (1-7) points. Two weeks ago only one game was decided by a TD or less and this week it was 5. Two weeks ago 11 games were decided by 11 points or more and this week that dropped all the way down to just 3 as the Dogs were barking again finally with 9 Dog covering the spread and 6 Dogs winning straight up. Three Dogs won by a FG with 9 games decided by a TD or less. The “OVERS” still hold a small lead overall this 2025 NFL season. The Packers losing straight up as a two TD favorite is the biggest shocker of the season so far.

For all your NFL Handicapping needs to handicap each week get all Gary Greene’s Football Betting Magazine Stats pages “FREE” at: GARYWINS.COM. Save tons of research time as these stats have all you need.





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Let ’em Run expands coverage to more tracks

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Capital Sports Network will be your home for Let ’em Run Happy Hour

Let ’em Run is breaking down races at some new venues, and we will continue to expand our horizons with a variety of tracks, as we listen to what our viewers and readers have to say.

We are breaking down interesting races at Laurel Park and Turfway Park (a little nighttime action) that will be run on Saturday. Then we turn our attention to Aqueduct on Saturday, where there is The Remsen Gr2, a Kentucky Derby prep, and the signature race…The Cigar Mile.

Saturday Roundup Reminder

Be sure to tune into the Saturday “Let ’em Run Roundup” at 12:30 where we will bring even more insight after any scratches and other changes. So catch us this weekend on multiple streaming apps and social channels!!


Saturday 12/6 — Laurel Park

Race 6 — 2:23 EST — The Maryland Juvenile — 125K — 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Some talented 2 y.o.’s line up for this race, at the always tricky distance for young runners at 7 furlongs. I am going to lean on #3 Sometime 9-2. Was ambitiously placed in the Iroquois against some of the best milers in the division. Breeding out of Take Charge Indy, who came in 1st at The Florida Derby and The Clark Handicap, so the talent is there. The #4 Biker Bailey 4-1 came out of a Md 20k, but took over the field and posted a 70 BSF. Could go to the front and not look back.
Bet = $10 Ex Box 3,4 = $20


Saturday 12/6 — Turfway Park

Race 7 — 8:55 EST — The Boone County — 125K — 1 ¼ (Synthetic)
Big field to choose from gives us plenty of options and value to boot. Jockey Fernando De La Cruz hops aboard #10 Swift Delivery 5-1, 1 of 2 Mark Casse entrants. A failed turf experiment, in between two Gr3 races on synthetic, make this horse the one to beat. Tough post, but De La Cruz can work out a trip and close on the field. The #1 Funtastic Again 5-1, is the horse for course and surface. Has ran in a steady diet of 6 Graded races last 6x, and now gets relief and a good post to go to the front. Jockey Gerado Corrales is very familiar with this runner.


Saturday 12/6 — Aqueduct (Races 7–11)

Race 7 — 2:11 EST — Alw 88K N1X — 1 Mile (Dirt)

Nice start to the late P5 for Let ’em Run, with a big field of 12 runners. Hard to look past #6 Life and Times 8-5. As a student of pace figures, this runner has an early pace figure of 142!! Out of Justify, and 2nd time out runners for that sire often improve…scary. Likely to have some company up front, but just too fast.
Bet = P5 = 6 / All / All / 6 / 2 = $78 (based on current entries)

Race 8 — 2:39 EST — The NY Stallion Series — 500K (Fillies) — 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

Another full field of 2 y.o. fillies running at 7 furlongs. Going with #12 Daniella Marie 6-1, the entry for the “other Chad”… trainer Chad Summers, who is heating up and excellent with 2.y.o’s. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche stays on, and never really asked her in last, when she won by 9 ¼ lengths. Likely post time fave #10 Hot Currency 7-2, looking to improve with stud jockey Flavian Prat retaining the mount.

Race 9 — 3:08 EST — The Remsen Gr2 — 250K — 1 ⅛ (Dirt)

Kentucky Derby prep race, with 12 runners ready to go. The #11 Talkin 5-1 for trainer Danny Gargan is my top choice. Gargan is looking to hit the Derby trail again with a good one here, out of top Sire Good Magic. Runner beat Further Ado in Maiden, and that runner is labeled as a Derby favorite, so why not this guy. Jockey Kendrick Caramouche has options from a tough post, with interesting Brisnet early and late pace figures both high, and nearly the same (early 106 / late 102). Once again the Flavian Prat runner #2 Paladin 3-1 will get much deserved attention.

Race 10 — 3:37 EST — The Cigar Mile Gr2 — 500K — 1 Mile (Dirt)

Really can’t see anyone beating the fast and talented #6 Phileas Fogg 8-5. Two new wrinkles; with blinkers going on and jockey Joel Rosario taking the mount. Trainer Rodriguez Gustavo gave him a break pointing to this race, and said “it’s showtime“; when asked how he was doing!!

Two notes per Brisnet, lone E speed, and best pace to the 6 furlong distance, by a lot. So should have company early, but will then pull away to the wire.

Race 11 — The NY Stallion Series — 500K — 7 Furlongs

Once again the Big A putting out a big field for bettors. Trainer Butch Reid has #2 Parker Boone 8-5 ready to make some noise. Runner won by 12 ¼ 1st time out and was under wraps early. Naysayers will say “who did he beat”, but runners out of Solomini are often very good, very early. Will have other speed to deal with, but a ground saving post should seal the deal.

Final Notes

Stay tuned as we continue to grow, and tune in on Saturday for our 12:30 Podcast, with scratches and changes affecting our picks. And as the saying goes, Let ‘em Run.





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NFL rights fees could change college conference expansion

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NFL and COLLEGE FOOTBALL – THE sec How Sports Is Saving Broadcast TV: The Rise of Live Programming in a Streaming-Dominated Era

Escalating costs of NFL and MLB renewals, combined with cable decline and streaming fragmentation, are likely to make ESPN, Amazon, Apple, CBS, NBC, Fox, and YouTube more cautious about paying significantly higher college football rights fees. This financial pressure could slow down aggressive expansion and reduce the incentive to add ACC schools like Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami, especially since their recent on-field performance has weakened their market value.

MUST READS ON SPORTS TALK FLORIDA

Why Networks May Pause Spending

  • NFL & MLB renewals dominate budgets: The NFL’s Thanksgiving 2025 ratings shattered records, proving why networks will commit billions more to retain rights. MLB’s upcoming renewal adds another heavy obligation.
  • Streaming entrants already stretched: Amazon, Apple, and YouTube are investing heavily in NFL packages and global sports, limiting their appetite for additional college conference deals.
  • Cable volatility: Cord-cutting erodes traditional revenue streams, forcing networks to be more selective with rights investments.

College Conference Dynamics

  • Big Ten & SEC remain secure: Their multibillion-dollar deals ($8B+ for Big Ten, $3B for SEC) ensure stability and make them the only conferences positioned to expand further but only if there is more money to get from the media partners.
  • ACC locked in: ESPN extended its deal through 2036, giving the conference stability but limiting renegotiation. This makes poaching ACC schools less financially attractive unless ESPN adjusts terms.
  • Big 12 opportunism: Benefited from Pac-12’s collapse, but future expansion depends on whether networks see value in adding mid-tier programs.

Risks for ACC Schools

  • Performance matters: Florida State, Clemson, UNC, and Miami have struggled with subpar seasons, reducing their bargaining power. Networks are less likely to pay premiums for underperforming brands.
  • Revenue-sharing pressures: Following the House v. NCAA settlement, schools must share revenue with athletes, increasing the need for higher payouts. If networks won’t pay more, weaker conferences risk losing schools without replacement value.
  • Exposure vs. payout trade-off: Streaming platforms may prefer cherry-picking marquee matchups rather than funding entire conferences, further reducing incentives to add schools.

Likely Outcomes

  • Slower expansion: Networks will prioritize retaining NFL/MLB rights over funding new college realignment.
  • Selective poaching: Big Ten and SEC may still target top ACC schools if they rebound competitively, but only if the economics justify it.
  • ACC stability (for now): ESPN’s long-term deal through 2036 makes immediate exits difficult, though lawsuits from FSU and Clemson could test that structure.

Bottom Line

The financial strain of NFL and MLB renewals means networks are unlikely to pay dramatically more for college football in the near term. That reduces the incentive for conferences to expand aggressively, making another Pac-12-style collapse less likely in the short run — but leaving underperforming ACC schools vulnerable if their value doesn’t rebound.





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Let ’em Run Rear View Mirror: a look back

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The Breeders’ Cup starts today, and Let ’em Run is on site.

Rear View Mirror Segment Introduction

Let ’em Run continues to improve our product, and we are rolling out our “Rear View Mirror” segment in today’s edition for Sports Talk Florida, where we look back on races we broke down and see where we missed a possible pick and why, and also how we landed on a good pick. In life they say “the windshield is bigger than the rear view mirror so you look ahead, instead of back”. We think in handicapping, a good idea occasionally to look back!!

Friday 11/28 — Churchill Downs

Race 10 – The Mrs. Revere Stakes
Looking back on our Podcast, John and I both landed on #4 Classic Q as an upset winner over big favorite #1 Lush Lips. The favorite proved her class and just nipped Classic Q. and a fast closing #10 Pretty Picture.

Race 11 – The Clark Stakes
The “Rear View Mirror” told us we should have given a long look at the #9 Magnitude, who took it to the field with the highest U.S. Timeform early pace figure. John made a strong case for #5 Chunk of Gold, who had more company up front than expected. My pick #4 Gosger, had many Brisnet angles that made him strong in my book, but never fired. Keep an eye on this runner next out, odds will surely be worth a look.

Saturday 11/29 — Del Mar

Race 5 – The Seabiscuit Handicap
In this race, the “Rear View Mirror” told us the only way (in our opinion) the #4 Call Sign Seven could have been used, was if you used a dart board, no offense to those who picked him!! John and I both landed on #3 Almanderes, who ran in 4th place, as the leader ran away from all in the field.

Race 7 – The Jimmy Durante Stakes
Some redemption here as John laid out a Trifecta Key for $20 (4/1,5,6,8,9/1,5,6,8,9) and returned $61.50. Hey, a win is a win. I dropped anchor on the #5 La Ville Lumiere, a long shot at 8-1, with a lot of Brisnet angles to work with. She ran a nice race, but only managed a 3rd place finish.

Race 9 – The Hollywood Stakes
Using the “Rear View Mirror”, a case could have been made for winner #4 Salamis. Leading rider Umberto Rispoli jumped aboard for trainer Chad Brown. In the last race he was a tough load, and closed, but too late. He ran back to the 2 back race and took the top spot, not an impossible pick with a closer look.

Looking Ahead

Moving forward, Let’emRun is looking to run multiple Podcasts each week in the New Year. Coming up on Friday 12/5/25 Happy Hour at 3PM, we will dive into 2 races being run on Saturday 12/6/25… Race 6 at Laurel Park, The Maryland Juvenile. We will then jump over to Race 7 at Turfway Park, The Boone County. Some interesting races, at some interesting venues.

Upcoming Coverage

On Saturday 12/6/25, we will get back to East Coast racing at Aqueduct, where we will cover Races 7 thru 11, including Race 9 The Remsen Stakes (Kentucky Derby Prep), and Race 10, The Cigar Mile. Two big races each year at the Big A, so be sure to tune in for both shows, and as always Let ’em Run.





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