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Did an OpenAI cofounder just pop the AI bubble? ‘The models are not there’

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Andrej Karpathy, one of the most influential figures in modern artificial intelligence and a founding member of OpenAI, sent shockwaves through the tech world over the weekend with a sobering assessment of the industry’s progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI).

In a widely shared interview with podcaster Dwarkesh Patel, a YouTuber with over 1 million followers, Karpathy said he believes the race to build AGI is moving significantly slower than the hype suggests.

Despite rapid advances in large language models (LLMs) over the past three years, he argued AGI remains at least a decade away, and warned that many companies are exaggerating AI’s agentic capabilities in a way that could damage the field.

“Overall, the models are not there,” Karpathy said on the podcast. “I feel like the industry is making too big of a jump and is trying to pretend like this is amazing, and it’s not. It’s slop.”

The interview triggered an immediate reaction across the tech community, where expectations for AGI have soared alongside capital investment and competition. 

“If this Karpathy interview doesn’t pop the AI bubble, nothing will,” Prithvir Jhaveri, CEO of prediction markets aggregator TradeFox, wrote on X.

John Coogan, host of the tech podcast TBPN, noted that Karpathy’s interview came just weeks after AI pioneer Richard Sutton called LLMs a “dead end.” 

“The general tech community is experiencing whiplash right now,” Coogan wrote on X.

Karpathy, who previously served as Tesla’s senior director of AI and helped lead OpenAI in its early years, described his AI timeline as “five to ten times pessimistic” compared to many public predictions. But he rejected the idea his prediction, that it’ll take a decade to achieve AGI, is gloomy. “Ten years,” he wrote on X after the interview, “should otherwise be a very bullish timeline for AGI.”

For Silicon Valley, it’s a slow projection. Sam Altman, Karpathy’s fellow OpenAI co-founder and current CEO, predicts artificial intelligence will surpass the intelligence of any human in any specialty by 2030. Elon Musk has predicted that AGI will come either this year or the next.

Karpathy argued that much of the confusion stems from metrics that give an inflated sense of capability. Public demos, benchmark competitions, chatbot conversations, and code-generation tests tend to reflect narrow optimizations, he said, rather than addressing the hardest unsolved problems in AI. Those include long-horizon planning, structured reasoning and, ultimately, safe system design. 

Karpathy reserved his strongest criticism for AI “agents,” a concept that has exploded across the industry in recent months. 

These systems, built on top of LLMs, are pitched as autonomous digital workers that can write and run code, search the internet, operate software, and execute business tasks with minimal oversight. Karpathy said the idea is promising, but the execution, at least how it stands today, is far from reliable. 

“We’re at this intermediate stage,” Karpathy said. “The models are amazing. They still need a lot of work.”

Many other AI leaders are much more bullish. For example, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has called 2025 “the year of AI agents.” Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently said that by 2026 or 2027, AI systems will be “better than almost all humans at almost all things.”

But most current AI agent systems produce brittle, unpredictable results and lack basic reliability, Karpathy warned. He argued they do not possess enough reasoning ability, have limited perceptions of software environments, and struggle to use tools correctly.

“If this isn’t done well,” Karpathy said, “we might end up with mountains of slop accumulating across software, and an increase in vulnerabilities [and] security breaches.”

Still, he insisted AI remains on a long but solvable path. The technical challenges ahead are difficult, he said, but manageable with time, research, and better safety practices. 

“I feel like the problems are surmountable,” he said. “But they’re still difficult.”



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Australia will start banning kids from social media this week

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Starting this Wednesday, many Australian teens will find it near impossible to access social media. That’s because, as of Dec. 10, social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram must bar those under the age of 16, or face significant fines. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the pending ban “one of the biggest social and cultural changes our nation has faced” in a statement.

Much is riding on this ban—and not just in Australia. Other countries in the region are watching Canberra’s ban closely. Malaysia, for example, said that it also plans to bar under-16s from accessing social media platforms starting next year. 

Other countries are considering less drastic ways to control teenagers’ social media use. On Nov. 30, Singapore said it would ban the use of smartphones on secondary school campuses. 

Yet, governments in Australia and Malaysia argue a full social media ban is necessary to protect youth from online harms such as cyberbullying, sexual exploitation and financial scams.

Tech companies have had varied responses to the social media ban. 

Some, like Meta, have been compliant, starting to remove Australian under-16s from Instagram, Threads and Facebook from Dec. 4, a week before the national ban kicks in. The social media giant reaffirmed their commitment to adhere to Australian law, but called for app stores to instead be held accountable for age verification.

“The government should require app stores to verify age and obtain parental approval whenever teens under 16 download apps, eliminating the need for teens to verify their age multiple times across different apps,” a Meta spokesperson said.

Others, like YouTube, sought to be excluded from the ban, with parent company Google even threatening to sue the Australian federal government in July 2025—to no avail.

However, experts told Fortune that these bans may, in fact, be harmful, denying young people the place to develop their own identities and the space to learn healthy digital habits.

“A healthy part of the development process and grappling with the human condition is the process of finding oneself. Consuming cultural material, connecting with others, and finding your community and identity is part of that human experience,” says Andrew Yee, an assistant professor at the Nanyang Technological University (NTU)’s Wee Kim Wee School of Communication and Information.

Social media “allows young people to derive information, gain affirmation and build community,” says Sun Sun Lim, a professor in communications and technology at the Singapore Management University (SMU), who also calls bans “a very rough tool.”

Yee, from NTU, also points out that young people can turn to platforms like YouTube to learn about hobbies that may not be available in their local communities. 

Forcing kids to go “cold turkey” off social media could also make for a difficult transition to the digital world once they are of age, argues Chew Han Ei, a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in the National University of Singapore (NUS).

“The sensible way is to slowly scaffold [social media use], since it’s not that healthy social media usage can be cultivated immediately,” Chew says.

Enforcement

Australia plans to enforce its social media ban by imposing a fine of 49.5 million Australian dollars (US$32.9 million) on social media companies which fail to take steps to ban those under 16 from having accounts on their platforms.

Malaysia has yet to explain how it might enforce its own social media ban, but communications minister Fahmi Fadzil suggested that social media platforms could verify users through government-issued documents like passports. 

Though young people may soon figure out how to maintain their access to social media. “Youths are savvy, and I am sure they will find ways to circumvent these,” says Yee of NTU. He also adds that young may migrate to platforms that aren’t traditionally defined as social media, such as gaming sites like Roblox. Other social media platforms, like YouTube, also don’t require accounts, thus limiting the efficacy of these bans, he adds.

Forcing social media platforms to collect huge amounts of personal data and government-issued identity documents could also lead to data privacy issues. “It’s very intimate personally identifiable information that’s being collected to verify age—from passports to digital IDs,” Chew, from NUS, says. “Somewhere along the line, a breach will happen.”

Moving towards healthy social media use

Ironically, some experts argue that a ban may absolve social media platforms of responsibility towards their younger users. 

“Social media bans impose an unfair burden on parents to closely supervise their children’s media use,” says Lim of SMU. “As for the tech platform, they can reduce child safety safeguards that make their platforms safer, since now the assumption is that young people are banned from them, and should not have been venturing [onto them] and opening themselves up to risks.”

And rather than allow digital harms to proliferate, social media platforms should be held responsible for ensuring they “contribute to intentional and purposeful use”, argues Yee.

This could mean regulating companies’ use of user interface features like auto-play and infinite scroll, or ensuring algorithmic recommendations are not pushing harmful content to users.

“Platforms profit—lucratively, if I may add—from people’s use, so they have a responsibility to ensure that the product is safe and beneficial for its users,” Yee explains. 

Finally, conversations on safe social media use should center the voices of young people, Yee adds.

“I think we need to come to a consensus as to what a safe and rights-respecting online space is,” he says. “This must include young people’s voices, as policy design should be done in consultation with the people the policy is affecting.”



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Jimmy Kimmel signs ABC extension through 2027

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Kimmel’s previous, multiyear contract had been set to expire next May, so the extension will keep him on the air until at least May 2027.

Kimmel’s future looked questionable in September, when ABC suspended “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” for remarks made following the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. Following a public outcry, ABC lifted the suspension, and Kimmel returned to the air with much stronger ratings than he had before.

He continued his relentless joking at the president’s expense, leading Trump to urge the network to “get the bum off the air” in a social media post last month. The post followed Kimmel’s nearly 10-minute monologue on Trump and the Jeffrey Epstein files.

Kimmel was even on Trump’s mind Sunday as the president hosted the Kennedy Center Honors in Washington.

“I’ve watched some of the people that host,” Trump said. “I’ve watched some of the people that host. Jimmy Kimmel was horrible, and some of these people, if I can’t beat out Jimmy Kimmel in terms of talent, then I don’t think I should be president.”

Kimmel has hosted the Oscars four times, but he’s never hosted the Kennedy Center show.

Just last week, Kimmel was needling Trump on the president’s approval ratings. “There are gas stations on Yelp with higher approval ratings than Trump right now,” he said.

Kimmel will be staying longer than late-night colleague Stephen Colbert at CBS. The network announced this summer it was ending Colbert’s show next May for economic reasons, even though it is the top-rated network show in late-night television.

ABC has aired Kimmel’s late-night show since 2003, during a time of upheaval in the industry. Like much of broadcast television, late-night ratings are down. Viewers increasingly turn to watching monologues online the day after they appear.

Most of Kimmel’s recent renewals have been multiyear extensions. There was no immediate word on whose choice it was to extend his current contract by one year.

Bill Carter, author of “The Late Shift” and veteran chronicler of late-night TV, cautioned against reading too much into the length of the extension. Kimmel, at age 58, knows he’s getting close to the end of the line, Carter said, but when he leaves, he doesn’t want it to appear under pressure from Trump or anyone.

“He wants to make sure that it’s on his terms,” Carter said.

Kimmel has become one of the leading voices resisting Trump. “I think it’s important for him and for ABC that they are standing up for him,” Carter said.

Following Kirk’s killing, Kimmel was criticized for saying that “the MAGA gang” was “desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them and doing everything they can to score political points from it.” The Nexstar and Sinclair television ownership groups said it would take Kimmel off the air, leading to ABC’s suspension.

When he returned to the air, Kimmel did not apologize for his remarks, but he said he did not intend to blame any specific group for Kirk’s assassination. He said “it was never my intention to make the light of the murder of a young man.”



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Trump says he’ll allow Nvidia to sell advanced chips to ‘approved customers’ in China

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President Donald Trump said Monday that he would allow Nvidia to sell an advanced type of computer chip used in the development of artificial intelligence to “approved customers” in China.

There have been concerns about allowing advanced computer chips to be sold to China as it could help the country better compete against the U.S. in building out AI capabilities, but there has also been a desire to develop the AI ecosystem with American companies such as chipmaker Nvidia.

The chip, known as the H200, is not Nvidia’s most advanced product. Those chips, called Blackwell and the upcoming Rubin, were not part of what Trump approved.

Trump said on social media that he had informed China’s leader Xi Jinping about his decision and “President Xi responded positively!”

“This policy will support American Jobs, strengthen U.S. Manufacturing, and benefit American Taxpayers,” Trump said in his post.

Nvidia said in a statement that it applauded Trump’s decision, saying the choice would support domestic manufacturing and that by allowing the Commerce Department to vet commercial customers it would “strike a thoughtful balance” on economic and national security priorities.

Trump said the Commerce Department was “finalizing the details” for other chipmakers such as AMD and Intel to sell their technologies abroad.

The approval of the licenses to sell Nvidia H200 chips reflects the increasing power and close relationship that the company’s founder and CEO, Jensen Huang, enjoys with the president. But there have been concerns that China will find ways to use the chips to develop its own AI products in ways that could pose national security risks for the U.S., a primary concern of the Biden administration that sought to limit exports.

Nvidia has a market cap of $4.5 trillion and Trump’s announcement appeared to drive the stock slightly higher in after hours trading.



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