Dems on statewide ballot lead in Palm Beach, buoyed by disdain for Donald Trump

In a glaring example of “what a difference four years makes,” Democrats on the statewide ballot this year are leading their Republican opponents in Palm Beach County, according to a new poll from St. Pete Polls.

The survey finds Democrat David Jolly leading Republican Byron Donalds at the top of the ticket for Governor by nearly 9 percentage points, at 49% to 40%. Alex Vindman, meanwhile, leads U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody by more than 4 percentage points, at more than 46% to nearly 42%.

Meanwhile, Palm Beach County voters significantly disapprove of President Donald Trump, with 56% saying they do not approve of his job performance and only 38% saying they do. By contrast, support for Gov. Ron DeSantis was nearly split, with him only slightly underwater at 46.5% approval compared to just over 47% disapproval.

Florida Politics commissioned the survey following the results of the Special Election for House District 87, which saw Democrat Emily Gregory deliver a surprise upset over Republican Jon Maples. The goal was to test whether Gregory’s victory was an anomaly, or whether it may translate to top-of-the-ticket races this November.

The answer seems clear. Trump carried HD 87, which encompasses most of Palm Beach County’s population, by 9 percentage points, even as former Rep. Mike Caruso won it by 19 percentage points. Now, Trump is underwater countywide by 18 percentage points while Democrats for Governor and U.S. Senate are polling ahead of their Republican opponents.

The shift also comes four years after DeSantis won the county during his 2022 re-election bid. Then-U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio also was within a fraction of his Democratic opponent, Val Demings, in Palm Beach County.

The difference lies largely among independent voters, but in the Governor’s race, Jolly is also enjoying some crossover support from Republicans.

Half of independent voters polled in the Governor’s race support Jolly, while only 38% support Donalds. Meanwhile, 6% of Democrats support Donalds, a Republican, while 7% of Republicans support Jolly, a Democrat.

In the Senate race, more Democrats support Moody than Republicans support Vindman at 9% and 7%, respectively. But independents break for Vindman 49% to 36%.

The poll also shows Trump deeply unpopular in his own backyard, with only 5% of Democrats indicating support for the President’s job performance. More telling are the nearly 15% of Republican voters who disapprove of the Republican President. And independent voters are also largely unhappy with Trump, with nearly 57% disapproving of his job performance compared to less than 33% who support it.

Young voters are also driving malcontent, with more than 70% of voters age 18-29 disapproving of the President’s job performance. Trump’s support grows with age, with 58% of voters age 30-49 opposing him and nearly 47% of those 50-69 opposing him — the exact same level as those who approve of his job performance.

But that improvement stops at age 69, with nearly 62% of voters over 70 indicating they oppose Trump’s performance.

Trump is also underwater among every demographic in the county, with Black voters being the most disapproving, at 83%. Even White voters, for whom Trump performs best, disapprove of his job performance, with more than 51% opposed and just over 43% supporting.

The results suggest that, at least in Palm Beach County, independent voters are swinging enough for Democrats to deliver major upsets to the Republican Party. If that trend is translated across the state, it could mean gains among the state’s minority party.